Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[H. Ross Peron]

Is the anti-Orban aspect of it why the socially conservative CU voted for the measure?

[jeron]

Is the anti-Orban aspect of it why the socially conservative CU voted for the measure?

No, I think people are mistaken about the position of CU and Denk regarding LGBT-rights and about how socially conservative these parties really are. They regularly support proposals on LGBT-rights, the only parties rejecting these proposals are usually PVV and SGP.

[PSOL]

RIP D66

Unless a party dissolves, there is always a chance for a comeback.

[Zinneke]

BV NL is Van Haga who broke off from Baudet, who seems to be getting more and more unhinged with his fanboys.

[Astatine]

RIP CDA

[Zinneke]

RIP CDA

Imagine we are back to the headline "PvdA twice as big as CDA" ten years ago...and it's significance compared to now.

[crals]

Why did CDA force out Omtzigt instead of making him leader? What a shot in the foot.

[jeron]

Why did CDA force out Omtzigt instead of making him leader? What a shot in the foot.

Because they think he is a pain in the ass, they already wanted to get rid of him 10 years ago.
CDA is down to 6 seats in the latest polls with lots of voters defecting to BBB or even JA21.

Meanwhile, the government formation is still a mess. VVD and D66 are writing some kind of document which should be the basis for further talks, but even VVD and D66 seem to have quite a lot of disagremeents. Rutte and Kaag have now gone on holiday

[Zinneke]

Why did CDA force out Omtzigt instead of making him leader? What a shot in the foot.

What jeron said + the donor scandal where basically a bunch of millionaires donated and placed Hoekstra in the driver's seat. CDA have such an identity crisis that basically the highest bidders get to decide their direction now.

[Zinneke]

Bij1 is decomposing at a rapid pace, seemingly trying to outdo FvDs internal struggles. There was first a member of their Haarlem who resigned due to white male heterosexuality. And now the party's number 2 Quincy Gario's suspension for alleged inappropriate behaviour (with the report into it being hidden) has meant a whole chunk of the party are breaking off.

[flateyri]

I would say BIJ1 is not yet at FvD level, when it comes to the party breaking. Until now only the board of The Hague municipal chapter have stepped down. They say the reason is the fact they are not allowed to compete in the municipal elections, by the country board. All though news media make the link with the Quincy Gario case.

What would be a problem is when Quincy Gario is also expelled from the party and Sylvana Simons who occupied the No. 1 list position for BIJ1 steps down. In that case Quincy Gario would take the BIJ1 spot in the 2nd Chamber on the basis of his No. 2 list position, even though he would not be member of BIJ1 anymore.

This scenario is not totally unthinkable due to Simons decease Osteoarthritis 

Bij1 is decomposing at a rapid pace, seemingly trying to outdo FvDs internal struggles. There was first a member of their Haarlem who resigned due to white male heterosexuality. And now the party's number 2 Quincy Gario's suspension for alleged inappropriate behaviour (with the report into it being hidden) has meant a whole chunk of the party are breaking off.

[Zinneke]

PvdA and GL announce that they will now negotiate as one unit, whatever that is worth. Probably just means more deadlock.

[Astatine]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1429331302214508544?s=19

Teflon Rutte.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

GL + PvdA.

I know one thing, since some GL member said on the radio that only scientists, rich people, elitists and so on would be allowed to take the plane according to them ethically because of the associated carbon emissions with air travel, the last thing they are is left-wing, and the last thing i would do if i was dutch was vote for them. Travel and transport is not a human right according to them, and exactly what they advocate for is class divide. Even VVD doesn't advocate for class divide (perhaps they secretly believe that, but they don't explicitly say that).

This automatically means PvdA also isn't left-wing. Volt and D66 also aren't left-wing, and BIJ1 / Denk are fake left, so the only valid left-wing party is PvdD lol (or SP). Perhaps Pirate Party or Splinter are other good options and BBB is a possibility too. They at least seem more people-oriented than all other parties not named yet.

Dutch politics are awful. I even sometimes prefer the right-wing political landscape of Flanders, over theirs.

They also went to the elector as parties who were not together. I think that's electoral manipulation to make the left stronger than it actually is. I would never support if i knew GL + PvdA would be one unit. I would never do that (i know i'm dutch, but i considered supporting GL). I would be very disappointed at that. It's total electoral manipulation.

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

[Zinneke]

[Continential]

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

[Gary JG]

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

My guess is that, the fragmentation of the Dutch party system has reached the point that, a new election is unlikely to significantly improve the chances of forming a new government.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

I have experience with such a deadlock in Belgium. It can take multiple years to finally have new elections, but those elections can further lead to the same deadlock as it was before.

In Spain and Israel the situation is sort of similar, or was. The problem is the high amount of fragmentisation in the Benelux, here because of the linguistical divides, in the Netherlands because they have +-20 political parties with parliamentary representation.

[SunSt0rm]

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

My guess is that, the fragmentation of the Dutch party system has reached the point that, a new election is unlikely to significantly improve the chances of forming a new government.

Indeed, CDA is imploding right now, which is the only partner on the right VVD have left. They are not working with FvD and PVV, and we have to see how JA21 and BBB will turn out in the future.

[SunSt0rm]

VVD and CDA have just said they are not willing to negotiate with PvdA and GL. And as long as D66 is also blocking CU, we are looking at a minority government or new elections.

[Zinneke]

I think in the short term there is a very specific blockage that is linked to the CU-D66 political falling out, and the CDA's precarious position. I think eventually D66 will accept CU back in, although getting rid of CDA potentially for good might be tempting for a lot of parties.

In the long term, even though they seem to be competing with Belgium for who can have the most insane parliamentary fragmentation, I don't expect the NL's fragmentation to make it less governable. There is still, arguably too much, elite social settings that reinforce ties between opposition parties. There's also the fact that the protracted "Nazbol majority" scenario in BE doesn't exist in the NL. Even SP and JA21 for example seem able to negotiate on majorities and pass individual legislative texts. They aren't fully testimonial parties who use the parliament as a cash cow and a circus act like PTB/PVDA and VB.

Will it become more inefficient to negotiate majorities? Yes. Will the Netherlands be crippled by poor governance? No. You may eventually drift towards Scandi-blocks with agreements like the one GL-PvdA signed to maximize negotiation strategies.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

If VVD is smart, they don't give in. They don't. They never do, even if it leads to a deadlock that lasts years. We in Belgium are champions at doing that. Just don't. Country isn't going to die if there's no government, we've also proven that.

Why wouldn't there be new elections?

My guess is that, the fragmentation of the Dutch party system has reached the point that, a new election is unlikely to significantly improve the chances of forming a new government.

Indeed, CDA is imploding right now, which is the only partner on the right VVD have left. They are not working with FvD and PVV, and we have to see how JA21 and BBB will turn out in the future.

Yes they don't have the options right now, they don't want to work with the right, and they don't want to work with a part of the left.

[DavidB.]

It seems like it's going to be a minority government (either VVD-D66 or VVD-D66-CDA; D66 will try to avoid the latter option, but the former option would almost definitely face a hostile CDA and have a lot more difficulty finding majorities in parliament with only 58 seats, which Rutte will want to avoid) or new elections.

From the outset, VVD and CDA have refused to allow two left-wing parties into the government, arguing that either of GL or PvdA would suffice for a majority and a government with two left-wing parties and three "progressive" parties would not be an accurate reflection of the election result (NL overwhelmingly voted for the right). Meanwhile, both fearing electoral collapse, PvdA and GL have refused to enter any government without the other. This situation could have been avoided if Ollongren's memos hadn't leaked, in which she claimed that the two left-wing parties "do not truly hold on to each other", which was probably true at the time but definitely not afterwards. PvdA and GL even seem to be forming one parliamentary group of 17 seats (it actually seems as if Klaver and Ploumen sincerely want a full merger), which made things more complicated for the CDA (14 seats left) as they were afraid of suddenly becoming the junior partner in government. D66, meanwhile, argued that their election gains should be reflected in the government (i.e. more "progressive" legislation). They clearly prefer a five-party VVD-D66-CDA-PvdA-GL government in which they are in the dead center over a continuation of VVD-D66-CDA-CU and have therefore tried to shut out CU from renewed cooperation (I personally find D66's priorities to be strange, as D66 and CU are allies against VVD and CDA on most issues). In the end, no one blinked and it doesn't seem as if there is any way out now.

[RGM2609]

Would another election help with forming a government in any way. Because it would seem as if the collapse of CDA would make most coalitions fall short.

[H. Ross Peron]

I personally find D66's priorities to be strange, as D66 and CU are allies against VVD and CDA on most issues).

Which issues would those be? Seems like the only thing CU and D66 would have in common against VVD/CDA is legislation that would favour smaller parties.