Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era
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  Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era
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Author Topic: Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era  (Read 133941 times)
Zinneke
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« Reply #1100 on: March 26, 2021, 03:26:16 AM »

Have the SP shown any interest in government this time round?

Yes on paper but they wont join.
Why?
[/quote

A ton of reasons mostly relating to VVD and internal strife within the party.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1101 on: March 27, 2021, 10:43:57 AM »

Map with all precincts: https://www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v/2021/hoe-stemde-jouw-buurt~v427721/.
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freek
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« Reply #1102 on: March 27, 2021, 10:51:59 AM »

I hit a paywall.

The same map is here as well:  https://pointer.kro-ncrv.nl/verkiezingskaart-tk2021
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1103 on: March 28, 2021, 11:51:22 AM »
« Edited: March 28, 2021, 11:54:45 AM by Zinneke »

Rotterdam:



cool graphic showing the effect of local candidates and where :



Baudet vs Van Haga preference votes (both FvD)




The Circuit is having a field day speculating who is after Omzigt and why. CDA deny it flatly, but people in CDA internally say he is only out for his own image and not a team player. Rutte also doesn't like having people undermine government but (obviously) publically denies wanting to sideline Omzigt

I am wondering if this means CDA is out of the picture for the coalition.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1104 on: March 28, 2021, 12:46:06 PM »


The Circuit is having a field day speculating who is after Omzigt and why. CDA deny it flatly, but people in CDA internally say he is only out for his own image and not a team player. Rutte also doesn't like having people undermine government but (obviously) publically denies wanting to sideline Omzigt

I am wondering if this means CDA is out of the picture for the coalition.

It's mathematically hard but not impossible to get a Govt without the CDA. The VVD and D66 would basically need to include some minor party, probably VOLT, alongside the GL-PvdA pair which would greatly benefit D66's power when it comes to coalition policies. It's interesting that it's Rutte who wants Omzigt out given MP math, maybe its his precondition for the party before accepting them back into the coalition.
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« Reply #1105 on: March 28, 2021, 03:20:44 PM »

Presumably not this time, but what is pvdd's stance towards joining governments? Do they serve in any local or regional coalitions?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1106 on: March 28, 2021, 04:48:42 PM »

Presumably not this time, but what is pvdd's stance towards joining governments? Do they serve in any local or regional coalitions?

They are not in any provincial coalitions.
They only stand in 15 gemeenten

From what I read/listen on podcasts to : They are by nature a testimonial party and they act like one. They can vote to secure individual pieces of legislation. A lot of the internal debate is "the bigger we get, how much more responsibility do we need to take up" (as I said before this is a very Dutch problem Cheesy ). I think they would have no issues joining a centre-left alliance from the outside were it possible. At the same time as a testimonial party, they have quite dogmatic (no pun intended) positions, and the influx of a certain type of member can mean they are perhaps unreliable to govern with. They also risk losing a lot of their protest voters.

tldr about as much chance as SGP.
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freek
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« Reply #1107 on: March 29, 2021, 03:47:48 AM »

Do they serve in any local or regional coalitions?

No, not yet.
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Diouf
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« Reply #1108 on: April 01, 2021, 05:28:20 AM »

After the Ollongren-revelation, parliament has demanded that the papers of the talks with party leaders are published. That happened this morning. Rutte has previously stated that he did not mention Omzigt in the talks with the informateurs, but in the notes he is indeed mentioned. He has apparently said that it would be easier to deal with CDA if Hoekstra ended up with more personal votes than Omzigt. And crucially also said that Omzigt should be moved to another positon, i.e. so that he can not continue as a regular MP holding the government to account. Apprently it was discussed whether he should be minister or speaker of parliament.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #1109 on: April 01, 2021, 05:50:18 AM »

This is quite explosive, Rutte is in real trouble, debate coming this afternoon. If Rutte is not able to explain this, I dont see how a new government can be formed with Rutte
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1110 on: April 01, 2021, 06:12:26 AM »

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #1111 on: April 01, 2021, 07:25:41 AM »

Rutte is done
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1112 on: April 01, 2021, 11:24:05 AM »

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.

That poll's hypothetical is F-ing weird BTW. Hype is hype, relevancy is relevancy, but then there is "my personality party will pull votes from everyone." So yeah, a relevant symbol.

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Flyersfan232
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« Reply #1113 on: April 01, 2021, 11:34:29 AM »

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.

That poll's hypothetical is F-ing weird BTW. Hype is hype, relevancy is relevancy, but then there is "my personality party will pull votes from everyone." So yeah, a relevant symbol.


If anything the Netherlands needs less parties not more a couple of parties should merge
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njwes
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« Reply #1114 on: April 01, 2021, 12:16:10 PM »

I get it if this would be too long to respond to lol, but can someone explain what exactly Omzigt's position is relative to the CDA as a whole? What makes him and his positions different from that of the rest of the party? And different from the rest of the Rutte coalition?

There aren't that many articles on Omzigt in English that I've been able to find from an (admittedly basic) Google search, and Wiki isn't helping either.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1115 on: April 01, 2021, 01:12:28 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2021, 01:15:48 PM by Zinneke »

I get it if this would be too long to respond to lol, but can someone explain what exactly Omzigt's position is relative to the CDA as a whole? What makes him and his positions different from that of the rest of the party? And different from the rest of the Rutte coalition?


He is a backbencher who led the investigation into the benefits scandal. He is also known for being a strong parliamentary investigator in general, who took Rutte's governments to task over other issues.


His position to the CDA is that he often criticises a government that CDA prop up. I also said that from what I read, Hoekstra was placed in without holding a vote because Hoekstra comes from a more traditional dutch elite background (in terms of career path) - a lot thought Hoekstra got positive press as a politician because of that, whereas De Jonge and Omzigt were not trendy enough. I think that plays a role as in Dutch politics often the "lijstrekker" was traditionally selected by a committee before membership votes come in and can be quite shady as a result when they get to decide due to a last minute resignation. Maybe the higher echelons of CDA were worried Omzigt wins vs Hoekstra after his surprising result against favorite De Jonge (almost a draw).

But keep in mind the CDA are a cross class, cross religious party and this means they have loads of factions. It is kreminology for us outsiders so a Dutchman who knows the party might explain better where Omzigt lies in that cosmos.

Anyway, that is the reason why people initially thought Ollogren's brief was due to Hoekstra not wanting Omzigt in his usual position as annoying backbencher. People thought CDA higher ups wanted Omzigt to either take responsibility or "bugger" off as a way to undo his image. But it turns out Rutte is the one who wanted him gone.


Yup. Extraordinary. Teflon Mark undone because of a classic political blunder he didnt even commit. But it also means I predict a re-vote. VVD will demand right to the PM spot and I imagine the more right-wing membership go for someone who wants JA21 or even Wilders on board. Not sure how VVD have evolved though since FvD and JA21 have taken some of their members.

And an Omzigt breakaway scenario is already polling at 23 seats, which means nothing of course, but also says everything. Omzigt is now a symbol.

That poll's hypothetical is F-ing weird BTW. Hype is hype, relevancy is relevancy, but then there is "my personality party will pull votes from everyone." So yeah, a relevant symbol.


If anything the Netherlands needs less parties not more a couple of parties should merge

I think its just people transferring all the issues they have with the Hague circuit into a candidate. His positions are irrelevant. Like Sunstorm or freek said, he voted for tougher legislation on benefits, then investigates government taking too tough a stance. What matters is his Knight of the Realm image, and that people are externalising frustration towards this really weird political saga that has only just begun.

(oh and its also Maurice de Hond trolling)
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Mike88
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« Reply #1116 on: April 01, 2021, 01:29:43 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2021, 02:14:28 PM by Mike88 »

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDA; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1117 on: April 01, 2021, 01:42:44 PM »
« Edited: April 02, 2021, 04:22:12 AM by Zinneke »

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDU; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

CDA not CDU.

Well, its not so much that Omtzigt was going to be offered a seat cabinet, but its clear that Rutte wanted him silenced ("functie, elders" is open to debate), and you can do that by forcing them into a low level cabinet position or, of course, sending them to Brussels. Rutte denied he had issues with Omzigt, straight up to the camera. He lied. He is now devoid of credibility, and fighting for his career.  
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Mike88
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« Reply #1118 on: April 01, 2021, 02:04:39 PM »

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDU; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

CDA not CDU.

Well, its not so much that Omtzigt was going to be offered a seat cabinet, but its clear that Rutte wanted him silenced ("functie, anders" is open to debate), and you can do that by forcing them into a low level cabinet position or, of course, sending them to Brussels. Rutte denied he had issues with Omzigt, straight up to the camera. He lied. He is now devoid of credibility, and fighting for his career.  

Oh, sorry about the typo.

I understand your point, but, again, I don't see this as very serious. To be honest, that's quite common practice in my country (maybe that's why I don't see this as a problem.) Embarrassed
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1119 on: April 01, 2021, 02:24:49 PM »

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDU; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

CDA not CDU.

Well, its not so much that Omtzigt was going to be offered a seat cabinet, but its clear that Rutte wanted him silenced ("functie, anders" is open to debate), and you can do that by forcing them into a low level cabinet position or, of course, sending them to Brussels. Rutte denied he had issues with Omzigt, straight up to the camera. He lied. He is now devoid of credibility, and fighting for his career.  

Oh, sorry about the typo.

I understand your point, but, again, I don't see this as very serious. To be honest, that's quite common practice in my country (maybe that's why I don't see this as a problem.) Embarrassed

I also think its a storm in a teacup, but although the situation with Covid is serious, politics stays politics, and this is a pure political "water cooler" story.

Kaag has ditched him, she said in the debate today "here our ways part". So that suggests D66 are out of any Rutte-led coalition. Politically this is extremely harming his image. He was seen as honest to his supporters, but now he is caught just bare faced lying and trying to shift the blame to other sources because he realised he could be held responsible for political marginalisation of a now super-popular figure. Other party leaders can't be seen to support him anymore.

His other way out is the far right support him and CDA are also up for it, but many on the far right hate Rutte more than the Left (some consider him a leftist anyway). They can smell a scalp.

So its not just his credibility that is done : his political capital is too.
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Mike88
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« Reply #1120 on: April 01, 2021, 02:32:14 PM »

So, let me see if I get this right: Omtzigt was planned to be a cabinet minister in the negotiations between VVD, D66 and CDU; Rutte denied this but then "confidential" papers showed he actually talked about it and lied, correct? And now Rutte could be ousted because of this. I'm a bit confused on why this is so serious.

CDA not CDU.

Well, its not so much that Omtzigt was going to be offered a seat cabinet, but its clear that Rutte wanted him silenced ("functie, anders" is open to debate), and you can do that by forcing them into a low level cabinet position or, of course, sending them to Brussels. Rutte denied he had issues with Omzigt, straight up to the camera. He lied. He is now devoid of credibility, and fighting for his career.  

Oh, sorry about the typo.

I understand your point, but, again, I don't see this as very serious. To be honest, that's quite common practice in my country (maybe that's why I don't see this as a problem.) Embarrassed

I also think its a storm in a teacup, but although the situation with Covid is serious, politics stays politics, and this is a pure political "water cooler" story.

Kaag has ditched him, she said in the debate today "here our ways part". So that suggests D66 are out of any Rutte-led coalition. Politically this is extremely harming his image. He was seen as honest to his supporters, but now he is caught just bare faced lying and trying to shift the blame to other sources because he realised he could be held responsible for political marginalisation of a now super-popular figure. Other party leaders can't be seen to support him anymore.

His other way out is the far right support him and CDA are also up for it, but many on the far right hate Rutte more than the Left (some consider him a leftist anyway). They can smell a scalp.

So its not just his credibility that is done : his political capital is too.

Ahh, right. It's more about his image rather than the content. The image of the pure/clean politician who never tells a lie and gives you straight all the time. And when the a small stain falls in the image, it's over, "On the best cloth, the stain falls" goes the saying.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #1121 on: April 01, 2021, 02:45:24 PM »

Could Rutte still remain PM after a re-vote?
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1122 on: April 01, 2021, 03:01:13 PM »


He is facing a no-confidence vote soon.
He fails that he's pretty much done.

 he wins then Re-vote? - i dunno, depends how soon it is. The VVD have to weigh up whether he is an asset or a liability. I would still say he's an asset - I don't like his politics but he can actually manage, and he will probably be better than anyone else at the VVD for striking deals with parties to his left and at the EU level.  

Rutte should stop spinning ("I actually wanted to give him a promotion!") and just put his hands up and admit he was playing "spelletjes" (little games) at a political level and come clean as a whole.

Ollogren is speaking now, suddenly completely aware of the facts. She is also thus being caught out as fundementally dishonest. But then she is also pretty hard done by by this given she was photographed with the notes having tested positive for covid and having to rush out.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #1123 on: April 01, 2021, 03:01:34 PM »
« Edited: April 01, 2021, 03:20:05 PM by SunSt0rm »

D66 and CDA position are still unclear during the debate, they have heavily criticized Rutte, but also seem to give a possible way out. But I do not see if Rutte somehow survives this, how a possible stable government can be formed.

This is not the first time but has become a pattern, when Rutte is in trouble, Rutte always used the excuse to forget a crucial element. But this time from the notes its plain clear he is lying or he is really suffering from dementia. I think if he last week just admitted he was discussing the position of Omtzigt it would not have blown this much.

Its laughable that Rutte, Ollogren and Jorritsma all three have ''forgotten'' that they have discussed about Omtzigt and using that as their defense.
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SunSt0rm
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« Reply #1124 on: April 01, 2021, 03:14:41 PM »

I get it if this would be too long to respond to lol, but can someone explain what exactly Omzigt's position is relative to the CDA as a whole? What makes him and his positions different from that of the rest of the party? And different from the rest of the Rutte coalition?

There aren't that many articles on Omzigt in English that I've been able to find from an (admittedly basic) Google search, and Wiki isn't helping either.
Zinneke has explained in his topic, but Omtzigt is hard working investigating maverick that is not afraid to be tough on any government even when the CDA is part of it. He has been annoyance for the CDA leadership for a long time and was placed at a unelected place for the election in 2012, but received enough preference votes to get into parliament. His fame rose when he lead the relevation of the ToeslagenAffaire that led to the fall of Rutte-III.
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