Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Oryxslayer]

I presently posses a spreadsheet with all the preliminary results. I must stress the preliminary nature, for example it doesn't appear Amsterdam ever posted a second update after they reported their initial one based on 85% of votes, and currently the city is reporting 70K less votes than 2017. However if there are any particular comparison maps anyone wants, go ahead and ask.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is there any reason why PvdA, SP, and GL shouldn't all be shuttered and the Dutch left just told to start over with new organisations?

Well, the first of those might have done rather better without the benefits scandal I suppose.

[Oryxslayer]

Example of the preliminary nature of the urban count: The Hague. A post-election update added 8K votes to VVD, 9K to D66, 5K to PVV, etc. So the numbers both aren't final and the urban parties are going to net votes. The percentages barely moved but the gainers were D66, GL, FvD, PvdD, BIJ1, and VOLT.

[freek]

Postal votes from abroad have not been added yet. Afaik the count results of these will be released next Tuesday.

[Oryxslayer]

Chart number two really shows why the CDA, PvdA, and now SP keep dropping seats.

[Astatine]

Why is SGP apparently so popular among women (compared to parties) if the party barred them from joining it/running on its lists for a long time?

[PSOL]

Why is SGP apparently so popular among women (compared to parties) if the party barred them from joining it/running on its lists for a long time?

Most likely it’s their husbands getting their wives and other female relatives to the polls.

[Хahar 🤔]

The SGP vote is almost exactly evenly divided between women and men, as one would expect in a community where people are voting on the basis of their religious convictions and not their sex.

[H. Ross Peron]

The SGP vote is almost exactly evenly divided between women and men, as one would expect in a community where people are voting on the basis of their religious convictions and not their sex.

Same reason for their fairly strong share of the youth vote along with the higher birth rates of the hardline Calvinists.

[CumbrianLefty]

Postal votes from abroad have not been added yet. Afaik the count results of these will be released next Tuesday.

Is there any chance these could alter the seat numbers?

[freek]

Postal votes from abroad have not been added yet. Afaik the count results of these will be released next Tuesday.

Is there any chance these could alter the seat numbers?

Probably not. If D66 did really well it might gain a seat at the expense of either VVD or FvD.

[Oryxslayer]

Arguably one of the more interesting maps I made with the preliminary data.

[Oryxslayer]

Another peculiar one. Urban and commuter areas for D66, the old bases of support still stand with the CDA, the periphery and certain industrial areas go for the PVV, and the Bible belt is increasingly visible.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/omtzigtmeter/status/1373357505275949062/photo/1

[Zinneke]

The GL vs PvdD map by Joos de Voogd

[freek]

It is expected, based on the preliminary results, that 3 candidates have been elected on preferential votes only:

• Kauthar Bouchallikht, #9 on the GroenLinks list
• Lisa Westerveld, #10 on the GroenLinks list, already an MP
• Marieke Koekkoek, #4 on the Volt list

[SunSt0rm]

Amsterdam finally has a final count, the result currently may have shift to give D66 a 24th seat at the expense of VVD. There are still votes left from abroad to count which may shift it again, possibly VVD gaining back the seat from D66 or even FvD

[Diouf]

Today were the first meetings with the informateurs. Rutte spoke in favour of VVD-D66-CDA-JA21, but also said the continuation of the current coalition could be a good option. Kaag said an option with JA21 was difficult to imagine, and that she wanted a progressive coalition. Hoekstra said that it wasn't obvious that CDA would join a government with a strong liberal engine. Ploumen said that PvdA would only join the government along with another left wing party. Klaver echoed Kaag's "as progressive as possible". Wilders said he expects to lead the opposition again, but that he believes that a VVD-CDA-PVV-FvD-JA21 majority should be looked at. Baudet sees no role for his party in the government negotiations. Marijnissen would not completely rule out being in a coalition with VVD, but acknowledged that there are big differences between the two parties. But she said that they got her number, and that she could be a part of a government which purses a social way out of the crisis.
Tomorrow the small parties will meet the informateurs.

[freek]

Amsterdam finally has a final count, the result currently may have shift to give D66 a 24th seat at the expense of VVD. There are still votes left from abroad to count which may shift it again, possibly VVD gaining back the seat from D66 or even FvD

The Hague just announced its results, including the postal votes from abroad. Seat distribution remains the same (so VVD 34, D66 24, FvD 8 ).

[Diouf]

In the meeting with the informateurs today, Eerdmans said that JA21 is ready to form a centre-right majority with VVD, D66 and CDA. He focuses on getting through the party's policies on migration, climate and EU with migration as the main focus. Van der Staaij from SGP said the voters' movement to the right should be reflected in the new government, but added that he "does not expect the ball to roll towards SGP" in these negotiations. Azarkan from DENK wants a government without VVD, PVV, FvD and JA21. He does not believe Rutte should be able to continue as PM after the child benefit scandal; instead he would like to see Kaag lead a D66-CDA-PvdA-SP-GL-CU majority. He sees no role for Denk in the formation. Segers from CU said that it's not obvious for CU to take part in the negotiations for a new government now. There are much bigger parties than CU with only five seats, and the responsibility lies with those bigger parties now. He added his concern about the deep divisions reflected in the election outcome, and says a new government should prevent the division from becoming bitter contradictions in society. Ouwehand says that PvdD is ready to govern in a green, progressive cabinet, which respects the rule of law. This could be in a cabinet with VVD if they are willing to move on the climate issue. Dassen said that Volt wants a stable government with a majority in the senate and policies which are progressive, sustainable and pro-European. He added that Volt is a new party, but it does not avoid its responsibilities.

I have not yet seen comments from the three mini-parties with one seat, 50Plus, BBB and BIJ1 remain.

[freek]

Ollongren & Jorritsma just resigned after a classic mistake: Meeting notes of Ollongren were photographed when she left the parliament building this morning. She was hurrying home after being tested positive for Covid-19.

https://twitter.com/volkskrant/status/1375052001474719753

The meeting notes were partially visible, and revealed some interesting insights. Oops.

'Position Omtzigt - job elsewhere' Pieter Omtzigt is the victim of a backstabbing campaign by the CDA leadership, probably because of his independent way of working. Omtzigt is currently overworked, and at home. He also hardly participated in the CDA campaign. Apparently other parties have doubts about the CDA stability, and are speculating that Omtzigt might leave parliament or split from CDA. Wopke Hoekstra was quick to deny that he brought this up during his first meeting with Jorritsma & Ollongren.

'Negotiation style Wopke Hoekstra' VVD & D66 take issue with it, apparently.

'Majority in the Senate' All parties can live with a coalition that does not have a majority in the Senate

'Leftist parties don't hold each other very strongly' It is possible that either PvdA or GroenLinks could be part of a coalition, not necessarily both of them.

[Zinneke]

I think the leftist party issue might seem bizarre given Ploumen said they would only join if another left-wing party joined but both are basically in a prisoners dilemma either way where if one goes the other gets to act as  official left-wing opposition and/or the other gets to act as the constructive actor but both want to see what the other does first and how the pollsters react.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Have the SP shown any interest in government this time round?

[Zinneke]

Have the SP shown any interest in government this time round?

Yes on paper but they wont join.

[PSOL]

Have the SP shown any interest in government this time round?

Yes on paper but they wont join.

Why?