Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[freek]

Edam-Volendam doing something weird. Its one of only a few areas where the PVV improved on 2017, and its in the heart of Holland. FvD and JA21 made gains comparable to elsewhere, it was the CDA which fell off. Any explanations?

Its historically a fishing port, the kind of Christian one like Katwijk, but that got shafted for a bunch of reasons and is now mostly known for its suicide rate and cocaine trade. Has always been one of the PVV's best towns outside of Limburg that FvD started to take over too. Very lower middle class and white means far right do well.

Volendam is historically catholic, otherwise everything is true. Because it was the only Catholic fishing town, it is also been very isolated in the past (all surrounding towns were farming oriented). It is also famously inbred. Amsterdam hospitals facilitate genetic testing for couples from Volendam who want to start a family, because of 4 different known genetic defects.

One reason for the CDA decline might be Mona Keijzer, who was born there. She won large amounts of personal votes there in the past. Because she is junior minister for Economic Affairs, might also be held responsible for the Covid19 measures against small businesses.

[DC Al Fine]

Something must be in the water down in Limburg when it comes to the PvdA.

Ploumen is from Limburg and Limburg has a local son/daughter effect like nowhere else (Wilders gets this too). Timmermans also had it in the EU election.

Also to consider - the other Lilian was not exactly in the good books of the SP members in Limburg given she shafted Ron Meijer. So Lilian --> Lillianne if you were an SP voter who doesn't like the leadership seems logical. SP also lost heavily in Boxmeer where Roemer was appreciated.

Especially in Southern Limburg the culture is quite different. People from there consider themselves distinct from the rest of the country. Generally, they regard the rest of the country as Holland and of course they themselves are not included in that. Little anecdote: A friend of mine who comes from Oss in Northern Brabant (a southern province) went to uni in Maastricht. People asked him if he was from the North, of course he replied no, i am from Oss. The Limburgish people answered: That is the north!
What always surprises me most out there is that people flatout refuse to talk Dutch even when you talk to them in Dutch, but cling to their own dialect instead, even in a city like Maastricht

Because I do some groundhopping, and Maastricht is a lovely city, I attended a South Limburg derby between Maastricht and Roda. Huge police presence, mock hangings, songs about WW2 collaboration, game stopped several times for crowd violence, Maastricht fans making a big deal of burning the Limburg flag, but still also finding the time to sing Hollanders Hollanders zet ze maar kapot, Hollanders Hollanders kogel in hun kop", presumably to the referee. Also they insist that Venlo should be part of Brabant, and that the only reason Limburgers aren't independent is because "we hate each other more".

You get the same provincial effect in Belgian Limburg. By far and away the ones who make the most noise about Flemish nationalism favouring Antwerp and Brussels rather than them, always voting for their own, etc.

Interestingly, Limburg also is distinctive in having a much lower birth rate compared to the rest of the Netherlands at least according to data from 2003. https://www.cbs.nl/en-gb/news/2003/36/largest-families-in-urk

And of course Urk leads the pack in birth rate

[freek]

why did CDA gain in Schagen?

Candidate #28 Jelle Beemsterboer is from the beautifully named village of Tuitjenhorn in Schagen municipality. He ran a campaign for personal votes.

From Noord-Holland regional news:
https://www.nhnieuws.nl/nieuws/282356/honderden-posters-om-jelle-beemsterboer-de-kamer-in-te-helpen-kost-flink-wat-geld

A similar reason explains the CDA decrease in Dalfsen, Ommen etc. In 2017 there was a campaign for Maurits von Martels, a farmer from Dalfsen. He was elected MP, but did not make much impression in parliament. Party leadership placed him low on the list again, and he decided to not run for re-election anymore.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

BIJ1 seems to be back with 1 seat, but they're flirting with the threshold for 1 seat.

[SunSt0rm]

BIJ1 is probably safe as Rotterdam is still out and the results in Amsterdam is not complete.

There is some rumor, beside Omtzigt getting more votes than Hoekstra, that its not out of the question Van Haga will get more votes than Baudet. I know a friend who counted the personal votes and he said that Van Haga and Baudet roughly got equal personal votes. FvD and Baudet has suprisingly been silence since the results even though they won quite a lot

https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1372504175985184771
https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1372505545362567168
https://twitter.com/HaagseInsider/status/1372506284730286081

[freek]

BIJ1 is probably safe as Rotterdam is still out and the results in Amsterdam is not complete.

There is some rumor, beside Omtzigt getting more votes than Hoekstra, that its not out of the question Van Haga will get more votes than Baudet. I know a friend who counted the personal votes and he said that Van Haga and Baudet roughly got equal personal votes. FvD and Baudet has suprisingly been silence since the results even though they won quite a lot

Might be probable. In my polling station it was roughly 2:1 Van Haga - Baudet

[Zinneke]

If you want to know why Dutch politics works so much better than Belgian, despite also having a fragmented parliament look at this video :

https://nos.nl/video/2373166-partijleiders-voor-het-eerst-bijeen-na-verkiezingen-nou-gefeliciteerd-man.html

I am not getting all soppy again about the Dutch system, because someone like Baudet is right when he talks of a partijkartel, but the fact that everyone is there around the table, talking normally to each other, not antagonizing each other, following protocol and behaving like adults, is a far cry from the mess we have in Belgian when elites negotiate with each other. Of course the linguistic divide matters, perhaps less so because of the language and more because of the lack of afterhour drinking and general sharing of a common education and ideas. But the breakdown of consociationalism in the NL is not happening anytime soon.

FvD have finally made a statement saying as the party that has won the most seats (which looks likely to be true, despite a pretty insane 4 years) they must be given the initiative to talk to the other parties for a government.

[Diouf]

As far as I can see, there is no longer a Paars Plus majority, only 75 seats. So that is no longer an option in it self. Would need an additional party, perhaps it could become a Paars Pikachu coalition with Volt

[Diouf]

Annemarie Jorritsma (VVD) and Kajsa Ollongren (D66) are named informateurs after the meeting of party leaders, posted by Zinneke

[Oryxslayer]

Rotterdam finally posts, D66 on top, rather unimpressive results for JA21 and FvD considering this was a good city for PVV previously.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One thing that these elections demonstrate is that when the political Left is seen to be irrelevant many of its potential voters (even ones who normally seem solid) will not see the point in voting for it. As, actually, voting that way is a pragmatic act for most that do so. The plain fact is that the number of people interested in voting for left-wing testimonial parties (even when they are such by default rather than design) in most 'Western' countries is now quite small. If party loyalties even ran that deep they do not now.

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/CasMudde/status/1372632741401989124

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

pretty surprised VOLT surged so much. I personally did not think EU Federalism would be a very popular platform for a while but I guess maybe it is? Or is it some other reason that I'm overlooking?

[Zinneke]

https://twitter.com/almodozo/status/1372613086889250816

JA21 are the new "posh alt-right".

D66's win looks to be smaller than expected (just lost 2 seats to GL and DENK) but the expat vote might save them another seat.

[Zinneke]

CDA and PvdA are screwed

[Vosem]

Nice to know that 50+ would keep their seat if only 18-24-year-olds voted, I guess.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Nice to know that 50+ would keep their seat if only 18-24-year-olds voted, I guess.

Is there a possibility that without 18-24 year olds voting, 50+ might've lost their seat?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I've literally never heard of Ubuntuism, but what happened on the island St. Eustatius

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Is there any reason why PvdA, SP, and GL shouldn't all be shuttered and the Dutch left just told to start over with new organisations?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

FIX. YOUR. TABLE. BREAKING. POST.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any reason why PvdA, SP, and GL shouldn't all be shuttered and the Dutch left just told to start over with new organisations?

It does seem like the obviously correct move by this point.

[Zinneke]

Is there any reason why PvdA, SP, and GL shouldn't all be shuttered and the Dutch left just told to start over with new organisations?

Well the only positive I see from that is that the media battle for second place becomes more interesting. Ironically, if D66 actually manage to get some of their traditional "crown jewels" from their platform, Dutch voters would be allowed to choose mayors and Minister-Presidents(!) directly, so forming one left candidate would be a given (and no guarentee D66 gets behind this candidate at all - so costing them left voters).

Really the last time a left-wing party did well (PvdA 2012), it might seem like ages ago, but a big factor was the "presidentialisation" of the debate between Rutte and Samsom. So having a joint list that makes headwind in the polls as a credibly left challenger might also make an impact in that respect. I would merge GL-PvdA but then the latter is still a vote bank in certain areas.  

GL and SP have had electoral accords in the past. But nowadays they attract two different electorates and I think SP just need a better figurehead. Lilian is nice on TV and gets on well with other politicians but I think Peter Kwint has the more rough edges anti-establishment credentials that could attract certain types back and keep the old SP loyalists going at the same time.

I've literally never heard of Ubuntuism, but what happened on the island St. Eustatius

ge moet ge beeld kleiner maken!

Ubuntu Connected Front has got some ties to African ethnic rights groups if I understand correctly.

[freek]

I've literally never heard of Ubuntuism, but what happened on the island St. Eustatius

CDA had one candidate from Sint Eustatius, and UCF two candidates.

Similarly, BIJ1 had one candidate from Saba, and was the 2nd party there.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Ow sorry, i thought that was a bug that only applied to me. And I also don't know how to change that image haha. But i'm glad a moderator did.

[Oryxslayer]

Ow sorry, i thought that was a bug that only applied to me. And I also don't know how to change that image haha. But i'm glad a moderator did.

Here's what I do when I post an image and it breaks the formatting: click edit again and then change [img] to [img width= x] with x being a pixel size that doesn't break things, usually 700/800 depending on the image.