Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[Vosem]

Is there a source where there's a map being updated? Dutch-language is fine.

[tomhguy]

https://nos.nl/collectie/13860/artikel/2373037-bekijk-hier-de-uitslagen-van-de-verkiezingen

[Zinneke]

That Voerendaal result suggest that VVD are really digging into the CDA's hegemony in the South like never before. Its actually not so long ago the CDA would lock the two southern provinces out (and PvdA the two northern provinces).

[SunSt0rm]

The first results, mainly at rural areas do not really suggest big gains of D66 the exit polls suggest. So probably huge gains are made in the big cities. PvdA make some big gains Limburg at the expense of SP it seems

[Oryxslayer]

The first results, mainly at rural areas do not really suggest big gains of D66 the exit polls suggest. So probably huge gains are made in the big cities. PvdA make some big gains Limburg at the expense of SP it seems

The difference in the swings between Rozendaal and the vacationer islands on one hand and the Limburg rurals on the other certainly point towards concentrated D66 gains in cities and the west.

[Oryxslayer]

VVD wins Beek, previously a PVV municipality in 2017. They appear to have eaten into the CDA, FvD ate into the PVV, teres a GL to D66 swing, and the PvdA got some of the former SP voters. Similar story in Vaals and Beesel.

Interesting tea leaves from the CDA stronghold of Tubbergen in the east, nearly a 1 to 1 transfer 6.5% of previous CDA voters to BBB, with the rest more or less stable

[Zinneke]

Yeah, I think that the D66 surge mainly comes from the north based on these results, with only about a 1-2% gain in the southern rural parts of the netherlands. The VVD seems to lose ground to the D66 in the north, whilst gaining quite a bit in the south.

D66 is more urban-rural than north-south. Like we said earlier it over-performs in uni cities so look out for Tilburg, Nijmegen, Wageningen, Groningen, Maastricht for D66 strongholds outside the Randstad.

[SunSt0rm]

D66 gains in the suburbs around Amsterdam are better than the south, but don't really suggest 27 seats tbf. I think D66 may be overestimated by exit poll maybe because of postal votes

[Diouf]

Ouder-Amstel, in Amsterdam where the Ajax youth facilities are located, shows the expected picture. VVD loses 3.0% while D66 improves with 4.6%. Volt gets 3.9%

[Boobs]

CDA down 15% (!) in Ommen

[parochial boy]

So, er, slightly tongue in cheek, but the conclusion to draw is that there isn't a single left wing person in the entire Netherlands?

[Zinneke]

D66 should have the first transgender parliamentarian in Dutch history if i understand correctly, barring some serious preference voting changes.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.verkiezingensite.nl/ has a nice bubble map of voters per municipality (for those not familiar with the pop distribution) and just clicking around, the D66 swings are more pronounced in larger areas and areas closer to Amsterdam in Holland. So yeah, concentrated swings.

[Zinneke]

Well done Klaver for releasing the posters basically saying it doesnt matter if you vote for D66.

25% of your voters left you for the Kaagtrain

[Oryxslayer]

D66 voter coalition. I assume a lot of those new voters were either unenthusiastic former PvdA voter who didn't turn out in 2017 and the newly register youth.

[Oryxslayer]

Fairly big SP -> FvD swings in the PVV's corner of Groningen.

[Crumpets]

Jumping in here for my once-per-election hot take on Dutch politics that I otherwise pay next to no attention to and should not be listened to: D66 was my fave in 2017 and they still seem pretty good. However, according to a chart of "who should you support" I saw a couple days ago on Twitter. Denk looks like it might be closer to my views, but also a little bit less mainstream. So, those are probably who I'm "rooting for" today. Feel free to tell me I'm crazy as long as you tell me why.

[Oryxslayer]

Jumping in here for my once-per-election hot take on Dutch politics that I otherwise pay next to no attention to and should not be listened to: D66 was my fave in 2017 and they still seem pretty good. However, according to a chart of "who should you support" I saw a couple days ago on Twitter. Denk looks like it might be closer to my views, but also a little bit less mainstream. So, those are probably who I'm "rooting for" today. Feel free to tell me I'm crazy as long as you tell me why.

You're crazy because DENK isn't a mainstream or even a single-issue small party, they are more or less a Muslim/Turkish-Dutch minority party. So unless you are a member of that community you would find yourself more at home it appears in D66.

[Cassius]

What’s the deal with the BIJ1 splinter group from DENK? A more ‘doctrinaire’ anti-racist et al party but not one catering specifically to the Dutch Turkish/Moroccan communities as DENK seems to do?

[Logical]

Another updated exitpoll, PVV and JA21 gains another seat at the expense of VVD and D66. Far right parties have gained +3 seats since the first exitpoll.

[Oryxslayer]

What’s the deal with the BIJ1 splinter group from DENK? A more ‘doctrinaire’ anti-racist et al party but not one catering specifically to the Dutch Turkish/Moroccan communities as DENK seems to do?

Split off because of the lack of perceived support within DENK for progressive social change that doesn't just involve more autonomy for Turkish-Dutch, and of course sometimes those local issues are social conservative. Also problems with the parties capture by that community and the baggage that comes with it like Armenian Genocide denial and Erdogan.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What’s the deal with the BIJ1 splinter group from DENK? A more ‘doctrinaire’ anti-racist et al party but not one catering specifically to the Dutch Turkish/Moroccan communities as DENK seems to do?

Iirc Simons joined up with DENK because she believed what they claim to be, and quickly left after realising what the party actually is. BIJ is more appealling to whites (you can imagine the stereotype) than DENK, which is more monolithic and somewhat old fashioned in its approach to identity politics (not just in the sense of being socially conservative, but being an ethnic machine block).

[Crumpets]

What’s the deal with the BIJ1 splinter group from DENK? A more ‘doctrinaire’ anti-racist et al party but not one catering specifically to the Dutch Turkish/Moroccan communities as DENK seems to do?

Split off because of the lack of perceived support within DENK for progressive social change that doesn't just involve more autonomy for Turkish-Dutch, and of course sometimes those local issues are social conservative. Also problems with the parties capture by that community and the baggage that comes with it like Armenian Genocide denial and Erdogan.

Possibly unrelated, but biji is Kurdish for "Long live"/"viva," and "Biji Kurdistan" is a common rally cry among Kurdish nationalists.

[Hash]

What’s the deal with the BIJ1 splinter group from DENK? A more ‘doctrinaire’ anti-racist et al party but not one catering specifically to the Dutch Turkish/Moroccan communities as DENK seems to do?

Iirc Simons joined up with DENK because she believed what they claim to be, and quickly left after realising what the party actually is. BIJ is more appealling to whites (you can imagine the stereotype) than DENK, which is more monolithic and somewhat old fashioned in its approach to identity politics (not just in the sense of being socially conservative, but being an ethnic machine block).

BIJ1 (or Artikel 1 back then) in 2017 was strongest, by far, in areas with a large Surinamese population - Simons was born in Paramaribo. They won a few precincts in Amsterdam-Zuidoost which has a large Surinamese population.

[Cassius]

Thanks to all for answers. On a personal note, it’s pretty tragic that I can actually remember when Jesse Klaver was the Guardian’s latest pin up populist slaying great white hope for Europe and European vAlUeS. RIP vrijheidsvechter 😢