Making America Whole Again: A Clinton Presidency One-Shot

[Mike Thick]

Chapter 1
The Election

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United States Presidential Election, 2016:

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Tim Kaine (D-VA):
69,947,315 | 51.18% | 350 EVs
Businessman Donald Trump (R-NY) / Governor Mike Pence (R-IN):
58,890,774 | 43.09% | 188 EVs

United States Senate Elections, 2016:

Democrats: 50 (+6)
Republicans: 48 (-6)

United States House of Representatives Elections, 2016:

Democrats: 199 (+11)
Republicans: 236 (-11)

United States Gubernatorial Elections, 2016:

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[The Govanah Jake]

Great Start!

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Great Start!

Pretty good representation of my predictions in the middle of October 2016 lol

[Mike Thick]

Great Start!

Pretty good representation of my predictions in the middle of October 2016 lol

Yeah, same. Things are about to get interesting, though...

[MRX]

I'm interested.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The senate map image of yours looks D+6, but you summarize it as D+5.  I assume you meant to have Republicans win in Missouri.

[Mike Thick]

The senate map image of yours looks D+6, but you summarize it as D+5.  I assume you meant to have Republicans win in Missouri.

No, Missouri is right. The summary is wrong. Thanks for pointing that out!

[libertpaulian]

I would give Clinton OH, ME-02, and possibly IA.

If she's winning AZ and GA, she'd win OH.  There'd be significant numbers of AA voters in Cleveland and Columbus pissed off enough to vote after hearing the n-word tape.

[Edgeofnight]

>Senators Kander and Feingold

This is clearly the superior timeline.

[Mike Thick]

I would give Clinton OH, ME-02, and possibly IA.

If she's winning AZ and GA, she'd win OH.  There'd be significant numbers of AA voters in Cleveland and Columbus pissed off enough to vote after hearing the n-word tape.

I just took the highest gap between Trump and Clinton in Gallup polling at any point during the campaign (eight), then uniformly swung the actual results to reflect that margin (three points from Trump to Clinton, and three points from each Republican candidate to each Democratic candidate). The n-word tape is more of a means to an end than anything.

>Senators Kander and Feingold

This is clearly the superior timeline.

I'm interested.

Thanks, guys!

[wxtransit]

Honestly, (minus the tape) this is pretty much what I thought would happen, except with Trump winning Georgia and Arizona, on November 7.

[Mike Thick]

Chapter 2
The Outset

The Clinton Administration:
Secretary of State: John Podesta
Secretary of the Treasury: Sheryl Sandberg
Secretary of Defense: Michele Flournoy
Attorney General: Loretta Lynch
Secretary of Commerce: Gregory Meeks
Secretary of Labor: Howard Schultz
Secretary of Agriculture: Dave Loebsack
Secretary of the Interior: Ed Perlmutter
Secretary of HHS: Neera Tanden
Secretary of HUD: Eric Garcetti
Secretary of Energy: Carol Browner
Secretary of Education: Jennifer Granholm
Secretary of Transportation: John Mica
Secretary of Veterans' Affairs: Pete Buttigieg
Secretary of Homeland Security: Alejandro Mayorkas
EPA Administrator: Marcia Fudge
OMB Director: Gene Sperling
UN Ambassador: Wendy Sherman
Director of National Intelligence: Tom Donilon
CIA Director: Mike Morell
SEC Chair: Gary Gentler

Chief of Staff: Ron Klain
Deputy Chief of Staff: Huma Abedin
National Security Advisor: Jake Sullivan
Press Secretary: Brian Fallon
Communications Director: Kristina Schake

Getting Started:

The Clinton Administration hit the ground running, having started putting together its team mere days after the Democratic National Convention concluded. Following her unceremonious inauguration (attended by a crowd of medium size) President Clinton headed over to the Oval Office to sign two sets of executive orders: one expanding protections for LGBT people against workplace discrimination, and one strengthening protections for public-sector unions. Between inaugural balls, she made time to meet with Cabinet Secretaries and Congressmen. Her approval rating sat at a respectable, if underwhelming, 51%.

The Clinton Cabinet boiled with controversy from the outset. Sheryl Sandberg's nomination led many to question her qualifications for such a critical position, aside from being wealthy, female, and a Friend of Hillary. John Podesta's controversial involvement with Russian lobbying firms, as well as the infamous email leaks, sounded alarms as he was dispatched to Foggy Bottom. Howard Schultz faced blistering criticism over his time as the CEO of Starbucks, with over a dozen disgruntled employees publicly accusing him of unlawfully withholding pay. However, Schumer was able to work his magic, and the entire Cabinet was confirmed. No nominee hit the 60-vote threshold that was required for confirmation prior to 2012.

Policy:

Clinton's first priority was winning confirmation of Judge Merrick Garland to the late Antonin Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court. As it gradually became clear that it would be impossible to peel away the nine Republican votes necessary to invoke cloture, Clinton and Majority Leader Schumer elected to nuke the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees. There was a massive outcry from conservatives, especially Donald Trump, who referred to the action as "the first step towards a fachist dictatorship! [sic]" Garland was ultimately confirmed 53-47 after months of ugly vote-wrangling. McConnell and Ryan railed against "the great court robbery," and would continue to do so until years after President Clinton left office.

Next, Clinton set out to rebuild the nation's infrastructure. Dispatching Vice President Kaine and Secretary Mica to round up support for a $300 billion plan, the Administration was able to find support among both moderate Republicans in swing districts and arch-conservative Trumpites whose constituents had been swayed in favor of the proposal by their former leader. The result, which allocated a more modest $125 billion to the cause, was rammed by Republicans as wasteful and by Sandersites as insufficient, but passed both houses comfortably. The bill, signed into law in April, was the high watermark of the Clinton Administration's first two years.

Immigration, on the other hand, was an albatross around the neck of the new administration. Clinton quickly found that there was no way to get illegal immigrants the path to citizenship she'd wanted, but set out to tackle it despite very long odds. As McConnell and Ryan waffled on the plan publicly to mask negotiations with Clinton, a group of twenty House Democrats led by California's Ro Khanna and Hawaii's Tulsi Gabbard threw a wrench into Clinton's plans by forming the "Justice Caucus" and refusing to support any plan that did not provide a path to citizenship. The congressmen were lambasted by their Democratic colleagues for functionally killing the proposal in the cradle when they would likely face no electoral consequences for their actions. After a few failed attempts to send through bills that included a path, Clinton was forced to pull the initiative, incensing Latinos and raising questions about Clinton's ability to lead.

A Plot Twist:

Soon, a rift began to emerge between Hillary Clinton and the Democrats' Congressional leadership. Clinton blamed the emerging Justice Democrats for the party's woes, along with the party's shrinking right flank. Schumer and Pelosi wooed rabblerousers with carrots instead of sticks, promising those who fell in line the chance to sew large subsidies and elaborate pork projects for their communities into the budget. However, they were undermined by their President, who grew abrasive towards the rebellious congressmen, at one point referring to Illinois Representative Dan Lipinski as a "buck-toothed little scumbag" in a conversation leaked to the Washington Times for loudly opposing her initiatives on reproductive health.

These tensions came to a head during the passage of the budget. After numerous delays, largely due to spats between the President and the Pelosi-Schumer power center, the Administration proposed a budget. As with many of the Clinton Administration's blunders, they had tried to spread their political capital far too thin. Clinton had taken the unorthodox step of boosting Border Patrol funding in the interest of prepping for another immigration proposal, which pleased red-state Democrats but incensed Latinos. She had shut off the spigot on subsidies to coal and oil companies, which made liberals happy but enraged Joe Manchin and the conservadems. Many conservatives flat-out refused to support any budget that the President proposed, further complicating the Administration's efforts. The final result was a hodgepodge budget of liberal triumphs and almost as many conservative concessions, mashed together after months of pushing deadlines back further and further and narrowly averting shutdowns time and time again. Investors fretted over the mess in Washington, leveling off the stock market after months of record highs -- just as the 2017 elections approached.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

:/

[President of the great nation of 🏳️‍⚧️]

Just noticed NC-04 and 12 go R while NC-13 goes D.

[Mike Thick]

Just noticed NC-04 and 12 go R while NC-13 goes D.

There are a few mistakes in the map (NM as well), but I'm not taking the time to fix that shizzle

[Kingpoleon]

Are Gillespie and Northam still the nominees? Or did Barbara Comstock/Tom Davis or Perriello win the primaries?

[Mike Thick]

Are Gillespie and Northam still the nominees? Or did Barbara Comstock/Tom Davis or Perriello win the primaries?

We’ll cover this more in-depth in today’s installment, but here’s the rub:
 - Gillespie won his nomination with a lower percentage of the vote, but by a wider margin, due to the candidacy of a conservative State Senator who pulled about 17% of the vote, mostly from Stewart.
 - Northam won the nomination by about four over Perriello.

[_]

Are Gillespie and Northam still the nominees? Or did Barbara Comstock/Tom Davis or Perriello win the primaries?

We’ll cover this more in-depth in today’s installment, but here’s the rub:
 - Gillespie won his nomination with a lower percentage of the vote, but by a wider margin, due to the candidacy of a conservative State Senator who pulled about 17% of the vote, mostly from Stewart.
 - Northam won the nomination by about four over Perriello.

So slightly less division in the R primary, but more in the D primary?

Also I hope the primary vote is at least even as Rs should be more energized.

[Mike Thick]

Are Gillespie and Northam still the nominees? Or did Barbara Comstock/Tom Davis or Perriello win the primaries?

We’ll cover this more in-depth in today’s installment, but here’s the rub:
 - Gillespie won his nomination with a lower percentage of the vote, but by a wider margin, due to the candidacy of a conservative State Senator who pulled about 17% of the vote, mostly from Stewart.
 - Northam won the nomination by about four over Perriello.

So slightly less division in the R primary, but more in the D primary?

Also I hope the primary vote is at least even as Rs should be more energized.

There's more division in both parties, it's just that it works to Gillespie's advantage among Republicans. The primary vote is very, very heavily Republican-slanted.

[Mike Thick]

Chapter 3
The Testing

United States Elections, 2017

Virginia Gubernatorial:
Fmr. RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie: 52% (R GAIN)
Lt. Governor Ralph Northam: 42%

New Jersey Gubernatorial:
State Sen. Tom Kean Jr. - 47% (R HOLD)
Fmr. Ambassador Phil Murphy - 45%

Virginia Senatorial Special Election:
Rep. Gerry Connolly: 48.119%
State Del. Ben Cline: 48.101%

OH-11 Special Election:
State Rep. Emilia Strong-Sykes: 75%
Businessman Mark Wilson: 21%

IA-2 Special Election:
State Public Defender Adam Gregg: 54% (R+1)
Fmr. State Rep. Jim Lykam: 41%

CO-7 Special Election:
State Rep. Dominick Moreno: 49%
Attorney Tim Bradley: 46%

Los Angeles Mayoral Election:
State Sen. Kevin De Leon: 66%
Businessman Rick Caruso: 34%

New York Mayoral Election:
Mayor Bill de Blasio: 63%
State Sen. Nicole Malliotakis: 32%

The Elections:

In the 2017 elections, Democrats were roundly drubbed. Former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie defeated Lt. Governor Ralph Northam 52-42 to recapture Virginia's governorship for Republicans -- almost a mirror image of the state's 53-41 vote for Hillary Clinton. State Senator Thomas Kean Jr. defeated Phil Murphy, a former Ambassador and banking executive, 47-45 to retain New Jersey's Governorship (in spite of Chris Christie's persistently abysmal approval ratings). In the special Senatorial election to replace Vice President Kaine, Congressman Gerry Connolly held a critical Senate seat by racking up huge margins over Ben Cline, a young state legislator, in his native NoVA -- but faced months of legal challenges over his precarious 300-vote win. In these states' legislative elections, Democrats made dismally small gains, especially considering how many Republican-held seats in all chambers were won by Clinton a year prior. Agriculture Secretary Dave Loebsack's 48-46 Clinton seat was taken by State Public Defender Adam Gregg in a lopsided 54-41 victory, as Democrats faced an unusually tough election in Ed Perlmutter's suburban Denver district and massively underperformed in Mayoral races in New York and Los Angeles. Worried whispers circled around Washington as President Clinton and national Democrats made conspicuously few remarks about the election season.

Blame for the defeats was passed around. Irate progressives blamed the "establishment" for ensuring the nomination of a former Goldman Sachs executive in New Jersey and a relatively bland doctor in Virginia. Clintonites, on the other hand, accused Tom Perriello for damaging Northam in a primary that turned increasingly bitter in its final days, and blamed liberals for staying home in an off-year. Republicans, factionalized but functional, licked their lips at the chaos.

Three days after the elections, Senator Joe Manchin and Governor Jim Justice took the stage at a press conference in Huntington, West Virginia. Joined by Speaker Ryan and the state's Republican Congressional Representatives, they begrudgingly cited their inability to work with the Clinton Administration as the reason they were leaving the Democratic Party. Another reason, in all likelihood, was polling -- for example, Manchin trailed Evan Jenkins by a yawning sixteen points in the RCP average of his Senate race. This was not due to the state's personal dislike of him, but simply because of their hatred of President Clinton, who they had come to associate completely with the Democrats. This wasn't unique to West Virginia -- Clinton's approvals had continued a slide from their highs in the spring, and now wavered abysmally between 39% and 42% in Gallup's daily tracker.

Foreign Policy Recap:

President Clinton's first true test on the world stage came in early April, as reports emerged that Syrian President Assad had carried out a chemical attack on the village of Khan Shaykun, killing over 100 innocent civilians, including more than twenty children. Intent to enforce the red line that Obama had proposed years earlier, Clinton ordered a strike on the air base that had launched the attack. Fifty cruise missiles were launched from U.S. carriers in the Mediterranean, destroying dozens of planes, killing nearly fifty Syrian army soldiers, and essentially ending the base's functionality. While some within the government criticized Clinton for not warning Putin of the attack when there were Russian troops on the base, most people praised her for decisive action as the civil war continued as usual while ISIS's gains were slowly rolled back.

North Korea proved to be a much more treacherous situation for Clinton's administration. As the totalitarian regime rapidly improved its missile technology, the U.S. took the unconventional step of dispatching 93-year-old former President Jimmy Carter to smooth over relations, and Wendy Sherman successfully maneuvered tougher sanctions through the UN. However, days after passage of the sanctions, North Korea shot an ICBM over Japan's northernmost island, further provoking the U.S. Clinton attempted to tread the difficult line between pleasing progressives and countering hawks by traveling to South Korea and visiting the demilitarized zone, but was unable to avoid criticism from vocal neocons like Senator Tom Cotton for "capitulating to totalitarian communism." After an October incident in which a group of South Korean patrol boats was sunk by rogue North Korean forces, killing more than a dozen soldiers, the U.S. was criticized for an unemotional response that seemed reluctant to threaten military action. As the 2018 campaign began to amp up, Republicans ads conjured up images of nuclear holocaust as candidates pledged to "take tough action" against Kim and his hermit kingdom, and the increasingly boisterous Trump proclaimed that "if [he] was President, we would be bombing their country into The Stone Age!"

[BigVic]

A good start. POD is no Comey email

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

A good start. POD is no Comey email

It says at the beginning of the first post the POD is another Trump tape

[Progressive]

Very well-written and very painful to read.

[Canis]

what happened to garcetti?

[Mike Thick]

what happened to garcetti?

Garcetti was appointed Secretary of Housing and Urban Development.

Very well-written and very painful to read.

A good start. POD is no Comey email

Thanks, guys.

Chapter 4
The Stretch

The Shifts:

President Clinton attempted a final set of policy pushes as the 2018 midterms approached. First among them was a constitutional amendment to overturn Citizens United v. FEC, which she had promised to introduce during her first thirty days but abandoned in favor of infrastructure and immigration. While it actually pulled a significant amount of Republican support, enough conservatives thrashed the proposal as a "blatant assault on free speech" (Scott Walker), "a giant step towards totalitarian rule" (Ted Cruz), and "the single worst legislative proposal in modern American history" (Tom Cotton) to keep the amendment from gathering the broad-based support it needed. Dismally, it was pulled after weeks of hype but a mere four days on the national stage, further enraging the Democrats' increasingly volatile left wing.

Through spring, Clinton attempted to change course: no major policy movements beyond some reforms to the VA Department and a hodgepodge of items intended to plug minor holes in Obamacare, lots of meeting with foreign dignitaries, looking Presidential, etc. She managed to stay out of trouble, even as Republicans pressed forward with the Uranium One probes, and her approvals leveled off at about 44%.

A Tragedy:

On July 4th of 2018, during the heat of the midterm campaign, a coordinated international terrorist attack struck the United States for the first time since September 11th. A rented U-Haul packed with explosives jumped a police barrier and barreled down Avenue C, running down dozens of people gathered to watch the fireworks before detonating its load and partially demolishing one of Stuyvesant Town's 15-story residential towers. Simultaneously, shooters attacked a popular nightclub in Midtown Manhattan, a ferry to Newark, and the NYPD's headquarters in Civic Center before detonating suicide vests. When the dust settled, a staggering 687 Americans had died, including nearly forty police officers, and over two thousand had been wounded. ISIS, which had begun to regain some territory in Northern Iraq due the ongoing conflict between the Iraqi Government and the Kurds, immediately claimed responsibility. After a brief flag-rallying, Clinton's popularity plummeted to its lowest since the previous fall as both parties questioned how the dubious purchases of chemicals and firearms by the attackers went unnoticed by intelligence agencies, and whether the Clinton/Obama approach to the Middle East was doing enough to prevent Islamic Terrorism.

The issue of terrorism, which would ultimately poll as the most important issue of the 2018 campaign, snowballed bigly into a defining issue for both Clinton and the Republican Party. The day after the New York massacres, Tom Cotton and Lindsey Graham introduced a plan to send 20,000 ground troops to combat militants, and to grant the federal government broad surveillance powers. Progressives reacted with outrage, but Clinton -- sensing an urgent need for action -- took more measured steps. Former Secretary of Defense Ash Carter became a special envoy to Middle Eastern regions, tasked with crafting a regional army that incorporated no more than 10,000 American troops. The final plan, with a military force of Egyptians, Jordanians, Turks, Americans, and others front and center; was approved narrowly despite some skepticism from both sides of the policy debate. This issue, along with reforms to domestic intelligence programs, would remain in the front of the electorate's mind well beyond Clinton's exit from the national stage.

The economy, which had begun to turn up after a slight slump the previous fall, abruptly stagnated after the New York attacks. While Clintonites claimed (and still claim today) that the downturn was caused by the terrorist strike, most economists agree that it was a dual consequence of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to a meaningful level for the first time in ages and the tech bubble's slow slide into implosion.

The October Surprise:

Facing chasmic polling deficits only a few months out from the elections, Democrats trotted out a new platform that they labeled "A Better Deal:" a robust public option for the healthcare system, shutting corporate tax loopholes, organized labor protections, and a minimum wage increase. Berniecrats like Feingold and Sanders himself were united in support of the plan with people like Bill Nelson and Heidi Heitkamp. This boosted their flagging poll numbers, put the unpopular Republican Congress on the defensive, and gave many Democrats hope that losses would be minimal as November 6th drew ever closer.

However, this was not the end. The final significant events of the 2018 campaign began on Monday, October 31st. They were appropriately spoopy.

First, five of Chuck Schumer's staffers resigned hours before turning themselves in to the NYPD. They were then transferred to federal authorities, who charged them with operating a multi-million-dollar insider trading scheme, using information brazenly lifted from government computers.

Then, The Washington Post released a bombshell tape of Hillary Clinton referring to Senator Bernie Sanders as "senile," and deriding his voters as "only a step above people like Trump" in remarks delivered to a friendly crowd at a fundraiser in San Diego.

Finally, on election eve, Breitbart News released a memo that was purportedly sent from Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Assistant Secretary of State Jose Fernandez. The memorandum, allegedly personally written and signed by the now-President, clocked in at fifty words, and directed Fernandez to approve of the deal in order to "take care of business for us" while asking for "the usual discretion pertaining to our exchanges with Russia."

On November 5th, rolling averages of polls pegged the generic Congressional ballot at 49-45 Republican. What would happen next was anyone's guess.