Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On
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jaichind
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« Reply #325 on: July 14, 2020, 02:36:35 PM »
« edited: July 14, 2020, 04:30:49 PM by jaichind »

We can now look at strengths of different blocs (LDP+, KP+, Third Pole, Center Left, JCP+) by Urban, Suburban and Rural prefectures separated by East and West Japan.  Historically Japan has been split into East Japan and West Japan with West Japan defined as inclusively of 関西(Kansai)/近畿(Kinki) and all areas West of that.  East Japan being all areas East of 関西(Kansai)/近畿(Kinki).  The political dynamics of East and West Japan does seems to be different so it makes sense to use that as a method of separation.  



Doing this we get for East Japan

East Japan Urban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         44.49% 14.95%  1.16%  31.81%   7.59%  
2006-2009         36.01% 15.30%  0.00%  44.58%   4.11%  
2010-2013         46.19% 14.54%  9.91%  21.43%   7.94%  
2014-2017         31.22% 14.63% 28.55% 14.38%  11.22%
2018-2021         41.77% 13.90% 10.36% 24.99%   8.98%


East Japan Suburban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         65.00%  7.49%   2.12%  22.34%   3.06%
2006-2009         59.03%  7.69%   1.43%  29.97%   1.88%
2010-2013         58.94%  7.40%   5.83%  25.92%   1.91%
2014-2017         58.81%  7.67%   1.78%  27.24%   4.51%
2018-2021         58.97%  7.73%   0.82%  29.31%   3.17%


East Japan Rural
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         63.87%   4.00%   5.29%  23.90%  2.95%
2006-2009         62.55%   4.31%   1.27%  28.25%  3.61%
2010-2013         61.11%   4.86%   3.63%  26.84%  3.55%
2014-2017         61.01%   5.39%   2.56%  26.33%  4.70%
2018-2021         63.31%   5.43%   0.93%  26.13%  4.21%

Again East Japan Urban 2018-2021 cycles depends on my assumption that  2021 東京(Tokyo) prefecture elections will most likely produce:  LDP+ 44 (return of LDP-KP alliance), KP+ 23 (standard), Third Pole 22 (3-4 JRP, rest a much weaker TPFA running without KP alliance), Center-Left 23 (CDP recaptures some of old Center Left vote that TPFA took in 2017), JCP+ 15 (some alliance with CDP will save a few JCP seats.)

Note that Urban East Japan is very volatile.  Even in 2002-2005 DPJ was strong here and surged to huge heights in 2006-2009.  The failure of the 2009-2012 DPJ administration led to the collapse of the Center Left with Third Pole YP and JRP taking a good part of the 2006-2009 Center Left surge.  The 2014-2017 saw the rise of TPFA in Tokyo which hammered LDP+ even with YP's decline and 2018-2021 will see recovery of both LDP+ and Center Left as TPFA declines.  JCP saw a huge jump in 2014-2017 only to give up a lot of their gains in 2018-2021.

Suburban East Japan is a more muted version of Urban East Japan with the same pattern without the TPFA in Tokyo.  YP surged in 2010-2013 but fell into decline after that.  The Center Left as a result is as strong here in 2018-2021 as their peak in 2006-2009.

Rural East Japan had some LP strength in 2002-2005 which merged into DPJ by 2006-2009.  After that this area has been pretty static in terms of relative strength of different blocs with a slight YP surge in 2010-2013 but receded soon after that with most of their strength going over to LDP+ by 2018-2021.

The summery here is the Urban prefectures in East Japan swing hard for the latest fad (DPJ in 2006-2009, YP in 2010-2013, TPFA (in Tokyo) in 2014-2017) and only in 2018-2021 are things slowly regressing to the mean.  Rural prefectures in East Japan are pretty static with fairly low impact of the rise of Third Pole parties last few cycles.
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jaichind
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« Reply #326 on: July 14, 2020, 07:34:41 PM »
« Edited: July 15, 2020, 07:08:12 AM by jaichind »

Doing the same for West Japan we have

West Japan Urban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         46.15%  16.48%   1.65% 25.84%  9.88%      
2006-2009         48.39%  16.90%   0.95% 23.85%  9.91%      
2010-2013         32.51%  15.87% 28.56% 16.53%  6.52%    
2014-2017         39.85%  15.03% 29.24%   8.68%  7.21%      
2018-2021         33.43%  15.09% 35.30% 10.06%  6.12%    


West Japan Suburban
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         66.42%  9.45%   0.69%  19.27%  4.18%  
2006-2009         57.20%  9.85%   0.23%  28.68%  4.04%  
2010-2013         58.21%  9.74%   1.20%  28.00%  2.85%  
2014-2017         56.28%  9.84%   2.57%  26.45%  4.86%  
2019-2021         58.24%  8.83%   1.91%  25.88%  5.13%  


West Japan Rural
                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005          71.17%  5.99%   1.63% 17.52%   3.68%
2006-2009          70.22%  6.22%   0.00% 19.52%   4.04%
2010-2013          69.92%  6.72%   1.02% 18.34%   4.01%
2014-2017          69.38%  7.05%   1.87% 17.39%   4.31%
2018-2021          69.55%  6.87%   1.88% 17.39%   4.31%

The dynamics of Western Japan is clearly different from East Japan and is partly influenced by Osaka regionalism and resentment of Tokyo.  LDP+ is just stronger here but JRP will play a much bigger role.

Here the the big DPJ wave of 2006-2009 did not really give the Center Left a boast in West Urban Japan for the Center Left and in 2011 the rise of JRP pretty much ate into the LDP+, Center Left, and JCP+  over the next few cycles and even a bit into KP+ with the 2018-2021 cycle JRP taking yet another bit from LDP+.

The DPJ wave of 2006-2009 was a force in West Suburban areas but the YP surge of 2010-2013 that was very strong in East Urban and Suburban Japan was not much of a force in West Japan and as a result the fall of the Center Left bloc in 2010-2013 cycle not as deep.  Rural East Japan was mostly static throughout with JRP being slightly stronger in West Rural Japan.
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jaichind
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« Reply #327 on: July 15, 2020, 05:54:20 AM »

Some conclusions from these Japanese prefecture assembly data.

1) LDP was and is still stronger in the West and Rural areas

2) Urban areas was where the Center Left was the strongest in the 2002-2005 and 2006-2009 cycles but the rise of Third Pole parties like YP JRP and TPFA have upended that and now the Center Left have their base in Suburban areas

3) Both KP and JCP are stronger in Urban areas but these number are a bit descriptive.  The Urban constituencies are generally bigger in terms of members election which will allow smaller parties like KP and JCP to run and win seats.  It is very unlikely that KP or JCP choose to run and win a 1- or 2- member district.

4) The YP surge of 2010-2013 was a mostly East Japan Urban and Suburban phenomenon while JRP's surge of 2014-2017 is mostly centered in Urban West Japan and much weaker elsewhere even though it had the advantage of taking over the YP base.   By 2018-2021 the Third Pole parties have been mostly reduced to Urban areas only with very little presence outside of Urban areas.

5) Rural areas are lot more static in terms of the relative strength of different blocs especially when   the Third Pole parties had fairly minimal impact after 2006-2009.

6) If you look at local prefecture politicians, you do see some movement/defections between Third Pole politicians and the LDP+ as well as with the Center Left.  Defections between LDP+ and the Center Left blocs are much more rare.  So Third Pole parties and politicians are really a mix of anti-LDP politicians who for ideological reasons are not comfortable aligning with the Center Left bloc and  Center Right politicians within the Center Left bloc who choose to move away from Center Left parties due to ideological differences.  Clearly personality conflict will play a key role for these defections.  But the nature of the mix of politicians makes it easy for some to move back and forth between Third Pole parties and LDP+ and well as between Third Pole parties and Center Left parties.   
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jaichind
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« Reply #328 on: July 17, 2020, 07:34:28 PM »

There seems to be yet another attempt for CDP and DPP to merge.  Merger talks earlier this year fell through because CDP demanded that DPP disband and merge into CDP.  Now CDP is offering DPP a plan for both to disband and a new party called "Democratic Party" created by the fusion of the members of both parties.  I guess CDP was concerned about talks of a DPP alliance with JRP in a possible snap election.  Of course if this were to take place then this is just the revival of DP which broke up in 2017 when it was taken over by Koike to form HP and CDP bolted in protest.
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jaichind
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« Reply #329 on: July 23, 2020, 08:31:01 AM »

There are now three "theories" on when the next Lower House election will take place

1) Oct 2020 - mostly about getting it done before the USA election
2) Jan 2021 - mostly about getting it done before well ahead of the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections in the summer which is a key KP demand as KP wants to be at full strength for the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections
3) July 2021 - after 2021 Olympics

It just seems 1) and 2) are more likely although LDP support right now is soft and will need some time to recover
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jaichind
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« Reply #330 on: July 29, 2020, 12:54:03 PM »

Asahi did a poll in mid July that asked for vote on the PR slate for the next Lower House election which in my view is a better view on relative party strength.  They had (diff relative to their Jan 2020 poll)

LDP     35 (-2)
KP        6 (--)
HP        1 (+1) (surprised they are still being polled)
PNHK    2 (--)
JRP     10 (+4)
DPP      3
CDP    13 (-2)
RS        2 (-2)
SDP      2 (+1)
JCP       5 (-1)

Mostly about JRP gaining from LDP and CDP.  I figure around 3-4 out of the 35 LDP polls are really KP PR voters that say they will vote LDP.  RS also losing a bit of their novelty factor.   

Even with Abe's poor approval numbers it is clear LDP-KP has lost a bit of ground but they will continue to dominate any future election to come. CDP lost ground but with their alliance with SDP and JCP they as well as merger talks with DPP are still the main alternative to LDP despite the JRP surge.
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PSOL
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« Reply #331 on: July 29, 2020, 03:47:56 PM »

How exactly is the CDP losing ground to the JRP? The latter party seems a bit conservative for the base of the former party?
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jaichind
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« Reply #332 on: July 29, 2020, 04:06:11 PM »

How exactly is the CDP losing ground to the JRP? The latter party seems a bit conservative for the base of the former party?

JRP's management of Osaka during the virus outbreak was viewed as a success just like Koike was viewed as doing a good job in Tokyo with most negatives being projected toward Abe.  So JRP seems to have picked up a lot of support due to the perception that it is associated with good crisis management.
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #333 on: July 30, 2020, 05:08:12 AM »

Asahi did a poll in mid July that asked for vote on the PR slate for the next Lower House election which in my view is a better view on relative party strength.  They had (diff relative to their Jan 2020 poll)

LDP     35 (-2)
KP        6 (--)
HP        1 (+1) (surprised they are still being polled)
PNHK    2 (--)
JRP     10 (+4)
DPP      3
CDP    13 (-2)
RS        2 (-2)
SDP      2 (+1)
JCP       5 (-1)

Which party do you call JRP? I can't find it in the Wiki table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Party_identification_polling
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jaichind
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« Reply #334 on: July 30, 2020, 05:27:18 AM »
« Edited: July 30, 2020, 05:59:08 AM by jaichind »

Asahi did a poll in mid July that asked for vote on the PR slate for the next Lower House election which in my view is a better view on relative party strength.  They had (diff relative to their Jan 2020 poll)

LDP     35 (-2)
KP        6 (--)
HP        1 (+1) (surprised they are still being polled)
PNHK    2 (--)
JRP     10 (+4)
DPP      3
CDP    13 (-2)
RS        2 (-2)
SDP      2 (+1)
JCP       5 (-1)

Which party do you call JRP? I can't find it in the Wiki table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Party_identification_polling

Nippon no Kai (日本維新の会)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Ishin_no_Kai

This one is quite complicated to explain.

In 2012 日本維新の会 (Japan Restoration Party) which was national version of the Osaka based 大阪維新の会(Osaka Restoration Association) plus a bunch of DPJ and YP defectors.  In 2014 YP (not really, it was UP which was a YP splinter that had the majority of YP MPs) merged into JRP which was renamed 維新の党(Japan Innovation Party).    In 2015 after the failure of the Osaka Metropolitan referendum JRP founder  橋下徹(Hashimoto Tōru) resigned from national politics.  His successors moved the party toward an alliance with DPJ which  橋下徹(Hashimoto Tōru)  opposed.  In late 2015 the mostly Osaka branch of JIP (which was mostly the Osaka core of the 2012 日本維新の会 (Japan Restoration Party) and supported by 橋下徹(Hashimoto Tōru) split to re-create the 大阪維新の会(Osaka Restoration Association or Initiatives from Osaka).  In 2016 JIP merged with DPJ to form DP. Since that mean that there was no more national party with the word 維新 (Ishin) in it 大阪維新の会(Osaka Restoration Association) renamed itself back to 日本維新の会.  But this time, unlike 2012 and 2014 the party did not come out with an official English name so it is often referred to as Nippon Ishin no Kai in English.  The Japanese press often calls this party Japan Innovation Party from its 2014 version of the name.  I think that is confusing and a more correct name would be JRP or  Japan Restoration Party.  The key reason is the world 維新 (Ishin) is really a Chinese import word for political reform and was famously used in the context of the Meiji Restoration of 1868.  This was the basis of naming the 2012 日本維新の会 party Japan Restoration Party.  The word "Restoration" best maps to the word 維新.  The Japanese media figures no foreign will understand this complete mess and just decided to use Japan Innovation Party  even though this party is a very different party than the 2014 維新の党(Japan Innovation Party).
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Lord Halifax
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« Reply #335 on: July 30, 2020, 05:38:05 AM »

Asahi did a poll in mid July that asked for vote on the PR slate for the next Lower House election which in my view is a better view on relative party strength.  They had (diff relative to their Jan 2020 poll)

LDP     35 (-2)
KP        6 (--)
HP        1 (+1) (surprised they are still being polled)
PNHK    2 (--)
JRP     10 (+4)
DPP      3
CDP    13 (-2)
RS        2 (-2)
SDP      2 (+1)
JCP       5 (-1)

Which party do you call JRP? I can't find it in the Wiki table.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Japanese_general_election#Party_identification_polling

Nippon no Kai (日本維新の会)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nippon_Ishin_no_Ka


Thanks.

They're Ishin in Wiki's opinion polling table.
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jaichind
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« Reply #336 on: August 03, 2020, 04:55:23 AM »

Latest virus outbreak clearly has hurt Abe cabinet and LDP support

Abe cabinet approval dropping


Approval of government efforts in dealing with the virus clearly heading down
 

LDP support declining but also is JRP and CDP a bit with JCP rising



Aoki index [Approval Rating of the Cabinet + Support for the ruling Party] falling.  Typically Aoki index in the 60s means defeat for the ruling party in elections as long as the opposition are united
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« Reply #337 on: August 07, 2020, 02:18:40 AM »

Just saw a prediction that seems extremely pro-opposition, done by Nogami Tadaoki (野上忠興) in the Weekly post (週刊ポスト)
https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20200805_1583281.html/2


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jaichind
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« Reply #338 on: August 07, 2020, 05:20:44 AM »

I saw the same projection.  It is by a weekly magazine.  Here is the seat by seat projection






I looked over the projections district by district.  What the projection does is

a) CDP and DPP plus minor allies have perfect seat adjustments in competitive seats comes up with quality candidates in all of them where the CDP and DPP base have perfect vote transfer
b) JCP stands down in all competitive seats in favor of the CDP-DPP alliance and JCP vote base perfectly transfers to the common opposition candidate
c) Where JRP and RS runs in competitive seats they will not hurt CDP-DPP alliance
d) Assume a small swing against LDP-KP
e) Assume that in seats where there might be a LDP rebel that the LDP rebel takes mostly from the LDP-KP vote share
f) High turnout which will hurt KP but somehow not hurt JCP on the PR slate.

Each one of these assumptions could be true but for all of them to be true is very unlikely.  In many of the competitive seats CDP-DPP have each nominated a candidate already plus in some cases JCP, RS and JRP are in the fray as well in said competitive seats.  This projection as the LDP losing seats where the opposition could not even come up with a viable candidate yet.

The main point of this projection is to sell more magazines.  People are not going to buy a magazine showing a boring LDP victory.  A shocking opposition surge where LDP-KP barely clings on to a majority will get people to buy to look at the details.   As we get to the real election the "true" projection will get published a week two before the election since the none of the media houses want  the bad rep of putting out a projection that is way off the mark.  Before then they will be biased against the LDP in order to sell those magazines off the  magazine stands at 7-11.
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jaichind
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« Reply #339 on: August 09, 2020, 09:40:58 AM »

Approval of Abe cabinet handling of Covid-19 pandemic drops below 30%.  Sure there was a surge of cases but the death rate still remains nears nil.  Way overreaction by the Japanese public.


Abe cabinet approval curve below 35% means it is getting close to the danger zone of 30%.  This level is also around the same level as mid 2017 and early 2018 when the Abe administration was in crisis.


At this stage there is no way there is going to be an election in 2020.  Abe has to hope he can wind up this crisis in 2020 and go for an election in early 2021.  Main problem for him is the later the election the more resistant KP will be who wants a lower house election out of the way before the 2021 Tokyo prefecture elections.  A later election also means the pressure of CDP-DPP merger talks will decline which means further delay on this front.
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jaichind
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« Reply #340 on: August 11, 2020, 04:52:40 PM »

https://www.nippon.com/en/news/yjj2020081100924/

DPP has split over plans to merge with CDP.  One faction of DPP will just join CDP.  The rump DPP will reform into another party and most likely will be allied with JRP in the next election.  Depending on how strong the rump DPP is this split might have handed a landslide victory to LDP-KP even if Abe is now becoming quite unpopular.   Now all eyes will be on how many DPP MPs and MLA will choose to join CDP.
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« Reply #341 on: August 15, 2020, 03:03:46 PM »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ww2-anniversary-japan/japans-abe-on-ww2-anniversary-vows-not-to-repeat-war-sends-offering-to-shrine-idUSKCN25B06E

Quote
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, speaking on the 75th anniversary of Japan’s World War Two surrender, pledged never to repeat the tragedy of war and Emperor Naruhito expressed “deep remorse” over the wartime past, which still haunts East Asia.

“Never to repeat the tragedy of war. We will continue to remain committed to this resolute pledge,” said Abe, wearing a face mask at an official ceremony for war dead on Saturday that was scaled back because of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Abe, who did not echo Naruhito’s reference to remorse, sent a ritual offering to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine for war dead. But he avoided a personal visit that would anger China and South Korea.

<Snip>

At least four Japanese cabinet ministers paid their respects in person at Yasukuni, which honours 14 Japanese wartime leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal, as well as Japan’s war dead. The shrine is seen by Beijing and Seoul as a symbol of Japan’s past military aggression.
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jaichind
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« Reply #342 on: August 15, 2020, 04:27:06 PM »

毎日(Mainichi) Sunday magazine projection of an October snap election.  This was done before the DPP spit and merger with CDP was announced.




           District      PR        Total
LDP         196       66         262
KP              7       22           29
HP              0         0            0
PNHK          0         0            0
JRP             7       27          34
DPP           31       11          42
CDP           28      32           60
RS              0         3            3
SDP            1         1            1
JCP             1       14          15
OPPN        18                     18   (Opposition unity candidates mostly of them will be pro-CDP)
----------------------------------------------
               289     176        465

LDP-KP will lose their 2/3 majority but LDP-KP-JRP will still be well above 2/3 keeping the possibility of a pro-Constitutional revision majority.  

KP at 7 district seat means that they expect KP to lose their 北海道(Hokkaido) 10th seat to CDP.

2017 PR seat elected distribution was
LDP       66
KP         21
JRP        11
HP         32
CDP       38
SDP         1
JCP        11

The number of PR seats went down from 180 in 2017 to 176.

which means this projection expect LDP and KP mostly to repeat their 2017 performance with a slight gain while the 2017 HP PR vote gets split between DPP and JRP while CDP loses ground to both RS and JCP.

The main difference to 2017 is the better Center-Left-JCP opposition unity despite losing some PR votes to JRP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #343 on: August 17, 2020, 05:09:23 PM »

So far out of the 62 DPP MPs, 24 have announced their plans in the impending split of DPP.  18 has decided to join the faction that will merge into CDP and 6 has decide to stay on in a reconstructed DPP.  Note the famous Ozawa which merged his LP into DPP in 2019 has indicated he will join CDP.



A key reason beyond personality and ideology for a rump DPP to exist has to do with money. When DP fell apart in late 2017, HP took over its assets.  When DPP split from HP in 2018 it made the claim that it was the true inheritor of DP and kept all the original DP assets.  Now even if a good chunk of DPP MPs joins up with CDP the rump DPP will still get to keep this large asset base.  The DPP asset base was $100 million before the 2019 Local and Upper House election and after its spending in 2019 election one has to figure it has to be around $50 million.  If DPP wholesale merge into CDP then CDP will get this cash.  But now the rump DPP will have $50 million of election funds to play with which could keep up the rump DPP going for a while.
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jaichind
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« Reply #344 on: August 18, 2020, 05:18:52 PM »

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3097807/japan-pms-health-question-rumours-swirl-successors-jostle

Japan PM’s health in question as rumours swirl, successors jostle

There are rumors that Abe coughed out blood and will resign on a temp basis for former PM Tarō Asō and current DPM to take over for now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #345 on: August 18, 2020, 05:23:40 PM »

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ww2-anniversary-japan/japans-abe-on-ww2-anniversary-vows-not-to-repeat-war-sends-offering-to-shrine-idUSKCN25B06E

Quote
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, speaking on the 75th anniversary of Japan’s World War Two surrender, pledged never to repeat the tragedy of war and Emperor Naruhito expressed “deep remorse” over the wartime past, which still haunts East Asia.

“Never to repeat the tragedy of war. We will continue to remain committed to this resolute pledge,” said Abe, wearing a face mask at an official ceremony for war dead on Saturday that was scaled back because of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Abe, who did not echo Naruhito’s reference to remorse, sent a ritual offering to Tokyo’s Yasukuni Shrine for war dead. But he avoided a personal visit that would anger China and South Korea.

<Snip>

At least four Japanese cabinet ministers paid their respects in person at Yasukuni, which honours 14 Japanese wartime leaders convicted as war criminals by an Allied tribunal, as well as Japan’s war dead. The shrine is seen by Beijing and Seoul as a symbol of Japan’s past military aggression.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/12/japan-pm-sparks-anger-with-near-identical-speeches-in-hiroshima-and-nagasaki

It seems that a couple of days earlier he gave near identical but separate speeches in Hiroshima and Nagasaki getting some in both cities angry
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jaichind
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« Reply #346 on: August 19, 2020, 05:00:32 PM »

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/08/19/national/politics-diplomacy/dpp-japan-opposition-cdp-merger/

DPP approves merger with CDP to form new party.  DPP leader 玉木雄一郎(Tamaki Yūichirō) indicates that he will reform a rump DPP



So far out of 62 DPP MPs, 22 indicated they will merge into CDP, 6 will join the reformed rump DPP and 2 will become independent.  Rest of them have not indicated their position yet but the vast majority will clearly join CDP
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #347 on: August 19, 2020, 08:18:10 PM »

Vomiting blood is not a symptom of the (quite serious) chronic medical condition Abe is known to have, but vomit in general is, as is vomit that is quite disturbing in terms of colour and smell specifically.
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jaichind
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« Reply #348 on: August 20, 2020, 05:57:44 AM »

Vomiting blood is not a symptom of the (quite serious) chronic medical condition Abe is known to have, but vomit in general is, as is vomit that is quite disturbing in terms of colour and smell specifically.

To be fair and clear, all these rumors about coughing up blood and Abe appointing  Tarō Asō to be the new PM as early as this week are all from Chinese language media sources.  They get their rumors from various Japanese stringers in Japan as Japanese press does not report rumors.  The Chinese language media have no such qualms.  All things equal it seems Abe is back at work and most likely the most extreme versions of these rumors will prove unlikely to be true.  Still the PM office claim that Abe went into the hospital for a checkup seems unlikely as Abe just had a checkup two months ago.
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jaichind
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« Reply #349 on: August 20, 2020, 06:04:31 AM »



Most recent DPP split count are -> 28 to join up with the new merged party with CDP, 6 to form new reformed rump DPP, 2 will become independent.  Rest of the 62 DPP MPs hae not come out with their decisions yet.   

The name of the merged CDP-DPP party will be decided on a vote of the MPs at a later date.  CDP leader 枝野幸男(Edano Yukio) will be the leader of the new enlarged party.  Not clear if SDP will merge into this new opposition party but a large number of pro-CDP and pro-DPP independents will join up and will also include former PM 野田佳彦(Noda Yoshihiko) and his centrist grouping of independents.

It is clear that the rump DPP will be quite small and its number of MPs will be in the single digits.  It seems this rump DPP, which are already in talks with JRP for an alliance, is also reaching out to RS for a possible alliance as it is way too weak to survive on its own.  Also with DPP national committee voting to merge with CDP it is not clear that the rump DPP will even get to keep the $50 million campaign fund. 
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