Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[jaichind]

The Tokyo prefecture by-election results show that both the LDP and CDP brand have been taking a beating due to the virus outbreak and that the gainer from this is JRP.  It also showed what 2017 Tokyo prefecture election showed: that LDP victories are based on its alliance with KP and the end of such an alliance would mean electoral disaster for the LDP.   

The good news for the LDP is that in a national election the JRP would not have enough candidates with name recognition in each district and will either run a weak candidate or none at all.   In such a circumstance the JRP vote would most likely move toward the candidate with more name recognition which must of the time would be the LDP candidate.  With KP alliance intact the LDP can look forward to another election victory in the next national election despite the damage to its brand.

[jaichind]

The July 12th governor election for 鹿児島(Kagoshima) is an example of the rule "if you win you are LDP"

In 2016 the pro-LDP incumbent since 2004 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) was running for re-election was expecting an easy victory.  But a pro-LDP and anti-nuclear power 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) emerged to challenge 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) with support from various LDP dissidents.   DP-SDP-JCP saw their chance and jumped in to support 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) leading to a shocking upset.

三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (DP-SDP-JCP)   55.5%   
伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (LDP-KP)              44.5%

In office 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) made his peace with the LDP

For 2020 the roles are reversed from with LDP-KP now backing 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) being the LDP dissent trying to get back into power.  So the race will be 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP) vs 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP-DPP plus a part of the local LDP). 

三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) will cruise to re-election mostly as other candidates backed by JCP and dissident factions of CDP-DPP are also in the race and split the anti-三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) vote.

This election this Sunday is getting interesting.  Even though it was suppose to be the LDP-KP backed incumbant 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (2016 LDP rebel backed by the opposition) vs CDP backed LDP rebel 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (2016 pro-LDP incumbant), late breaking polls shows that the CDP base is shifting toward 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) who has a bureaucrat background and hence on paper more pro-LDP.   Due to the LDP base being split between 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and  伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) some polls now show that 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) is slightly ahead of 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi).  JCP is running a candidate (whereas it backed then LDP rebel 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) in 2016) but is getting no traction and the JCP vote is shifting most likely to 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).

Both LDP and CDP look bad in this election.  LDP because now for the second election in a row they could not get their house in order and CDP because they could not even direct their voters to the "correct" LDP rebel.   I think in the end 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) should win with a last minute consolidation of the LDP vote (the KP vote is already solid behind 三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) as per instruction from KP high command.)  One way or another the election is now expected to be close.

[jaichind]

It seems that a brewing scandal in 広島(Hiroshima) is about to explode.  Lower house LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who is known to be close to Abe it seems will be charged soon with vote buying in the 2019  広島(Hiroshima) Upper House election for his wife 河井案里(Kawai Anri) who was one of the 2 LDP candidates and won. 

The entire  広島(Hiroshima)  Upper House race always seems fishy to enemies of Abe within the LDP. The 広島(Hiroshima) district elects 2 members and has always been shared between the LDP and the Center-Left Opposition with 1 each.  The LDP incumbent up for re-election in 2019 was known not to be  on good terms with Abe.   The LDP high command decided to run 2 candidates in 2019 pointing to the 2016 results

LDP      49.76%    elected
DP       23.15%     elected
JRP      13.82%
JCP       7.75%
PJK       2.47%

and said "Hey, PJK has since merged into LDP and JRP looks like will not run in 2019, so we should have enough votes to win both seats."  The LDP incumbent was fairly distraught by this but accepted  the LDP high command (aka Abe) decision.

The result ended up being

Center-Left incumbent     32.31% elected
LDP                                28.99% elected (河井案里(Kawai Anri)) 
LDP incumbent                26.47% (not on good terms with Abe)
JCP                                  6.94%

So while the LDP did a good job distributing its vote, it did not come close to winning both seats.  And along the way, abracadabra, the anti-Abe LDP incumbent was replaced with a pro-Abe MP.

After the election there were rumors that toward the end the LDP knew that they would not win both seats but  the 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) machine decided to go all out to shift votes to 河井案里(Kawai Anri) to ensure that she got elected and not the LDP incumbent.    Then  more evidence came out that the 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) machine might have indulged in vote buying.  In March, secretaries of the political power couple were charged with bribery and now it seems they will close in on both MPs.

This will not look good for Abe who has to hope it stops here and do not somehow have LDP high command implicated.

Both Lower House MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki)  and his Upper House MP wife 河井案里(Kawai Anri) have been indicted with vote buying.  Given the fact that Japanese prcoecution never indites anyone they do not feel they have a 99% shot a conviction it is almost certin both will be conviced leading to by-elections.   Abe just has to hope that is where it stops.

[jaichind]

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

If the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly and various other municipal assemblies passes this, which they will as all of them are controled by JRP, then there will be a refernedum in Nov 2020.  A similar referendum failed in 2015 50.38%-49.62% which led to the retirmennt from active politics of JRP founder Hashimoto.   This time around with JRP being much stronger in 大阪(Osaka) than in 2015 it will most likely pass.

Overall Abe is most likely supportive of this plan while the 大阪(Osaka) LDP is very much opposed.  Most of this has to do with personal dynmics.  Abe is on good personal terms with Hashimoto while the Hashimoto pretty much created JRP in 2011 by splitting the 大阪(Osaka) LDP leading to raw hatred between JRP and the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  In 大阪(Osaka) local politics it is pretty much LDP-CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP against JRP with KP mostly playing a neutral role where KP could and has allied with JRP and LDP.  But that the 大阪(Osaka) LDP can ally with JCP to take on JRP shows the depth of animosity the 大阪(Osaka) LDP has for JRP and they will fight tooth and nail to defeat this proposal in the likely Nov 2020 referendum.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

If the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly and various other municipal assemblies passes this, which they will as all of them are controled by JRP, then there will be a refernedum in Nov 2020.  A similar referendum failed in 2015 50.38%-49.62% which led to the retirmennt from active politics of JRP founder Hashimoto.   This time around with JRP being much stronger in 大阪(Osaka) than in 2015 it will most likely pass.

Overall Abe is most likely supportive of this plan while the 大阪(Osaka) LDP is very much opposed.  Most of this has to do with personal dynmics.  Abe is on good personal terms with Hashimoto while the Hashimoto pretty much created JRP in 2011 by splitting the 大阪(Osaka) LDP leading to raw hatred between JRP and the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  In 大阪(Osaka) local politics it is pretty much LDP-CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP against JRP with KP mostly playing a neutral role where KP could and has allied with JRP and LDP.  But that the 大阪(Osaka) LDP can ally with JCP to take on JRP shows the depth of animosity the 大阪(Osaka) LDP has for JRP and they will fight tooth and nail to defeat this proposal in the likely Nov 2020 referendum.

So is this going to be Osaka+Sakai or just Osaka this time?
(in regards to how much of the prefecture becomes special wards)

[jaichind]

In 大阪(Osaka) it seems that JRP will push foward with the 大阪都構想 (Osaka Metropolis plan).  The idea is to turn 大阪(Osaka) from a 府(Fu or urban prefecture) to 都 (To or metropolis).  Currently the only other 府(Fu) in Japan is 京都(Kyoto).  The real agenda is really dethron Tokyo as the capital of Japan and creating two capitals with 東京(Tokyo) as captail of East Japan and 大阪(Osaka) as the captial of West Japan.

If the 大阪(Osaka) prefecture assembly and various other municipal assemblies passes this, which they will as all of them are controled by JRP, then there will be a refernedum in Nov 2020.  A similar referendum failed in 2015 50.38%-49.62% which led to the retirmennt from active politics of JRP founder Hashimoto.   This time around with JRP being much stronger in 大阪(Osaka) than in 2015 it will most likely pass.

Overall Abe is most likely supportive of this plan while the 大阪(Osaka) LDP is very much opposed.  Most of this has to do with personal dynmics.  Abe is on good personal terms with Hashimoto while the Hashimoto pretty much created JRP in 2011 by splitting the 大阪(Osaka) LDP leading to raw hatred between JRP and the 大阪(Osaka) LDP.  In 大阪(Osaka) local politics it is pretty much LDP-CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP against JRP with KP mostly playing a neutral role where KP could and has allied with JRP and LDP.  But that the 大阪(Osaka) LDP can ally with JCP to take on JRP shows the depth of animosity the 大阪(Osaka) LDP has for JRP and they will fight tooth and nail to defeat this proposal in the likely Nov 2020 referendum.

So is this going to be Osaka+Sakai or just Osaka this time?
(in regards to how much of the prefecture becomes special wards)

It is the same as the 2015 proposal.  All of 大阪市(Osaka City) and 堺市(Sakai City) will be made into a bunch of 区 (Wards) of a 大阪都区部(Osaka Special wards).

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election this Sunday is coming down to the wire

This chart of latest polls


Shows incumbent  三反園 訓(Mitazono Satoshi) backed by LDP-KP in a neck to neck race with  塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) with old LDP backed incumbent 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) backed by CDP from 2016 in a close 3rd position.  It seems the LDP vote is split between these two candidates while the CDP vote is split between 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)  and 伊藤 祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō).

[jaichind]

Voting about to end soon in 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election.  Mostly a 3 way battle between 2016 LDP rebel now backed by LDP-KP incumbent 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi), 2016 LDP incumbent  伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) now backed by CDP,  bureaucrat background 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) who seems to have caught fire and eaten into both LDP and CDP votes.  Also media personalty 青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) and JCP's 横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) are expected to win some level of support.  There are 2 other minor candidates but they will not get much.

Most polls has it neck-to-neck between LDP-KP incumbent 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) with most likely 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) not far behind.

[jaichind]

KYT exit polls calls it for 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).  Looks like a last minute Opposition consolidation behind him.

[jaichind]

Exit polls reults



塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) around 36%
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent) around 29%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbant) around 19%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality) around 8%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed) around 3%

Looking at how 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) and 横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) did it fits the narrative that a last minute Opposition consolidation around 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)  gave him the victory.  So just like 2016 the LDP-KP backed incumbent lost which is fairly rare.

[jaichind]

So this election is a flop for both LDP and CDP.  LDP bet on the wrong horse again while CDP could not even get their own base to vote for the "correct" LDP rebel.

[jaichind]

Exit polls show that the LDP vote was split 3 ways with something like



塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)      35%
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi)  35%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō)       25%

With 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) winning the battle for the anti-LDP vote over 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) he was able to prevail even as the KP vote for sure went to  三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) as per KP high command instructions.

So LDP vote being split is the reason for LDP-KP backed 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) defeat

[jaichind]

NHK exit poll shows 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) stronger with LDP vote than other exit polls but most likely not enough for him to win as 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) has a good chunk of the LDP vote and won the fairly large lean Center-Left independent vote

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 12% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       35.6%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    29.9%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  18.1%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           9.2%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.1%

The vote so far lean rural and suburban areas which will lean 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi).  Nothing from the more urban areas which are expected to go 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)

Note that while 鹿児島(Kagoshima) based KYT called the race for 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi), NHK has not made a call yet.

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 25% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       34.7%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    27.3%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  23.4%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.0%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          3.5%

Still nothing more larger urban areas

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 48% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       33.4%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    28.6%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  21.9%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.7%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.1%

Still nothing from 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City).  So far it seems 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) is out-performing exit polls so this will come down to the wire even if 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) gets a big bump from urban areas.

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 56% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       33.2%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    29.3%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  21.4%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.8%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.2%

Most of the votes outside of 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) are in.  So really comes down to what sort of bump 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) can give 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).

[jaichind]

NHK calls race for 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi).  They must have advanced information on how the  鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) count is going.

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 63% of the vote in it is

三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       33.4%
塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    28.8% (called by NHK as the winner)
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  22.0%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.5%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.0%

All of the outstanding vote is 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City)

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 86% of the vote in it is

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    31.9% (called by NHK as the winner)
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       31.4%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  19.8%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.2%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.8%

鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) coming in.  塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) takes the lead

[jaichind]

Japanese political blogger Miraisyakai posted a time based view of 鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election vote count and how it sharply shifted right as 鹿児島市(Kagoshima City) came in

[jaichind]

鹿児島(Kagoshima) governor election. With around 99% of the vote in it is

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi)                                                    33.9% (called by NHK as the winner)
三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) (LDP-KP backed incumbent)       29.8%
伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) (CDP backed 2016 LDP incumbent)  20.2%
青木隆子 (Aoki Takako) (media personality)                           8.6%
横山富美子(Yokoyama Fumiko) (JCP backed)                          4.2%

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) under-performed exit polls but still pulled out a victory.

[jaichind]

Looking at exit polls it seems clear that if 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) not run 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) should have won re-election.  In many ways 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō)  got revenge on 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi)  for beating him in 2016.

I wonder if 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi)  is going to try to do a comeback in 2024 just like 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō) tried to make a comeback in 2020.  What would be comical is if in 2024 塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) will run for re-election with LDP-KP support (under the rule if you win you are LDP) and 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) runs with Opposition support.

[jaichind]

塩田康一 (Shioda Koichi) won by sweeping urban areas while the rural areas are split between 三反園訓(Mitazono Satoshi) and 伊藤祐一郎(Itō Yūichirō)

[jaichind]

I have been tracking Japanese prefecture elections for a while and will now post a history of relative strength of various blocs over the last few cycles. 

Blocs in question are
LDP+: LDP, pro-LDP independents, LDP rebels that mostly go back to LDP, and local LDP allied parties
KP+: KP and the rare pro-KP independent
Third Pole: Non-LDP Center-Right forces, often LDP or Center-Left Splinters
Center-Left: Center-Left parties (DPJ SDP etc etc) and Center-Left independents
JCP+: JCP and the race pro-JCP independent   

I group Japanese prefecture elections into cycles.  The latest cycle started with Dec 2018 茨城(Ibaraki), then almost all the rest takes place in the Spring of 2019, 岩手(Iwate) and 宮城(Miyagi) in the fall of 2019, 沖縄(Okinawa) in the Summer of 2020, and 東京(Tokyo) in the Summer of 2021.  This cycle I would label as the 2018-2021 cycle.   I will track strength of the various blocs in the 2002-2005, 2006-2009, 2010-2013, 2014-2017, 2018-2021 cycles.

I weight strength of each bloc in each prefecture by the VAP of the most recent national election.  Doing that I get:

                                                   Third     Center
                          LDP+       KP+     Pole      Left        JCP+
2002-2005         59.89%  9.23%  2.29%  23.69%  4.89%   
2006-2009         55.80%  9.56%  0.78%  29.70%  4.15%   
2010-2013         55.14%  9.40%  8.01%  23.20%  4.24%   
2014-2017         53.09%  9.57% 10.34% 20.92%  6.08%   
2018-2021         54.63%  9.39%  7.38%  23.47%  5.13%   

Note KP+ is pretty much steady throughout as KP only contests when there is a 99% chance of being elected.  The relative strength of LDP+ and Center-Left depends on the strength of Third Pole forces and from which voting bloc Third Pole parties draw support from or flow back into.

Going cycle by cycle

2002-2005: We are in the last stages of the death of the various Ozawa Third Pole parties (LP, NCP and various other remnants of the Ozawa NFP of the late 1990s.)  This is also the first real cycle that KP is fully allied with LDP although in a couple of prefectures you still see KP having tactical alignments with Center-Left parties reflecting the KP alignments of the 1970s-1990s.   LDP+ dominates the landscape although going forward they will never have this sort of dominance again in the future.

2006-2009: Ozawa's Third Pole LP merged into DPJ which when added to anti-LDP sentiment drove a surge in Center Left bloc members.  This came from a swing of LDP+ support to the Center Left bloc, LP vote following Ozawa over to the Center Left and a tactical shift of JCP vote over to teh Center Left bloc.  This surge is especially strong in urban areas and comes hand in hand with the 2007 and 2009 landslide defeat of LDP in national elections.

2010-2013: Disappointment in the DPJ administration led a good part of the Center-Left urban surge to flow to new Third Pole parties (JRP in 大阪(Osaka) and YP in other urban areas) leading to a fall in Center-Left strength.  Third Pole parties took some support from LDP+ but clearly more from Center-Left forces and the split of the anti-LDP vote allowed the LDP to maintain their membership strength despite losing votes to JRP and YP.

2014-2017: Continued anger at the failed 2009-2012 DPJ administration continue to dog the Center Left bloc support.  Some of the Center Left bloc support flows to JCP leading to a JCP surge in strength while YP support wanes with their support going to JRP.  In 東京(Tokyo) Koike's Third Pole TPFA eats into both LDP+, Center Left, and JRP support even as her party also absorbs what is left of the old YP vote.   Center Left strength falls to a low.

2018-2021: Here, 東京(Tokyo) has not voted yet but I am going to project what the 東京(Tokyo) prefecture elections will most likely produce:  LDP+ 44 (return of LDP-KP alliance), KP+ 23 (standard), Third Pole 22 (3-4 JRP, rest a much weaker TPFA running without KP alliance), Center-Left 23 (CDP recaptures some of old Center Left vote that TPFA took in 2017), JCP+ 15 (some alliance with CDP will save a few JCP seats.)
The voting so far shows that the JCP surge of 2014-2017 has receded and that surge of support has partly flowed back to Center Left.  JRP clearly on the decline in Eastern Japan even as it gains in Western Japan.  Of course TPFA's expected fall will push up the strength of LDP+ and Center Left blocs.

Next, I will break up these levels of support by region and urbanization.