Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On
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jaichind
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« Reply #225 on: May 23, 2020, 06:25:21 AM »


Funny you mention this.  I just finished an analysis of prefecture elections in Japan over the last cycle where I broke down the seats by prefecture bloc by bloc: LDP+, KP, OPPN (non-JCP Center-Left opposition), TP (Third Pole), and JCP. 

Yes, 中国 (Chugoku) prefectures 鳥取(Tottori), 島根(Shimane), 岡山(Okayama), 広島(Hiroshima), and
山口(Yamaguchi) are very strong with LDP


Pref.     LDP+      KP        LDP++     OPPN      TP           JCP
北海道 53.00%   8.00%   61.00%   36.00%   0.00%   3.00%  Hokkaido
青森    64.58%   6.25%   70.83%   22.92%   0.00%   6.25%  Aomori
岩手    29.17%   2.08%   31.25%   52.08%  10.42%  6.25%  Iwate
宮城    55.93%   6.78%   62.71%   25.42%   3.39%   8.47%  Miyagi
秋田    62.79%   2.33%   65.12%   32.56%   0.00%   2.33%  Akita
山形    65.12%   2.33%   67.44%   27.91%   0.00%   4.65%  Yamagata
福島    53.45%   6.90%   60.34%   31.03%   0.00%   8.62%  Fukushima
茨城    80.65%   6.45%   87.10%    9.68%    0.00%   3.23%  Ibaraki
栃木    72.00%   6.00%   78.00%   18.00%   2.00%   2.00%  Tochigi
群馬    70.00%   6.00%   76.00%   20.00%   0.00%   4.00%  Gunma
埼玉    53.76%   9.68%   63.44%   30.11%   0.00%   6.45%  Saitama
千葉    60.64%   8.51%   69.15%   27.66%   1.06%   2.13%  Chiba
神奈川 52.38%   7.62%   60.00%   35.24%   0.00%   4.76%  Kanagawa
山梨    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Yamanashi
東京    18.11% 18.11%   36.22%     4.72% 44.09% 14.96%  Tokyo
新潟    62.26%   3.77%   66.04%   32.08%   0.00%   1.89%  Niigata
富山    85.00%   2.50%   87.50%     7.50%   0.00%   5.00%  Toyama
石川    74.42%   4.65%   79.07%   18.60%   0.00%   2.33%  Ishikawa
福井    75.68%   2.70%   78.38%   18.92%   0.00%   2.70%  Fukui
長野    50.88% 15.79%   66.67%   22.81%   1.75%   8.77%  Nagano
岐阜    73.91%   4.35%   78.26%   19.57%   0.00%   2.17%  Gifu
静岡    61.76%   7.35%   69.12%   29.41%   0.00%   1.47%  Shizuoka
愛知    57.84%   5.88%   63.73%   34.31%   1.96%   0.00%  Aichi
三重    50.98%   3.92%   54.90%   43.14%   0.00%   1.96%  Mie
滋賀    47.73%   4.55%   52.27%   38.64%   0.00%   9.09%  Shiga
京都    50.00%   8.33%   58.33%   18.33%   3.33% 20.00%  Kyoto
大阪    18.18% 17.05%   35.23%     2.27% 60.23%   2.27%  Osaka
兵庫    50.00% 15.12%   65.12%   18.60% 10.47%   5.81%  Hyōgo
奈良    62.79%   6.98%   69.77%   11.63%   9.30%   9.30%  Nara
和歌山 69.05%   7.14%   76.19%   11.90%   2.38%   9.52%  Wakayama
鳥取    60.00%   8.57%   68.57%   28.57%   0.00%   2.86%  Tottori
島根    75.68%   5.41%   81.08%   13.51%   0.00%   5.41%  Shimane
岡山    72.73%   9.09%   81.82%   14.55%   0.00%   3.64%  Okayama
広島    65.63%   9.38%   75.00%   21.88%   1.56%   1.56%  Hiroshima
山口    68.09% 10.64%   78.72%   17.02%   0.00%   4.26%  Yamaguchi

徳島    68.42%   5.26%   73.68%   21.05%   0.00%   5.26%  Tokushima
香川    68.29%   4.88%   73.17%   21.95%   0.00%   4.88%  Kagawa
愛媛    65.96%   4.26%   70.21%   10.64% 17.02%   2.13%  Ehime
高知    59.46%   8.11%   67.57%   18.92%   0.00% 13.51%  Kōchi
福岡    60.92% 11.49%   72.41%   25.29%   0.00%   2.30%  Fukuoka
佐賀    76.32%   5.26%   81.58%   13.16%   0.00%   5.26%  Saga
長崎    69.57%   6.52%   76.09%   21.74%   0.00%   2.17%  Nagasaki
熊本    81.63%   6.12%   87.76%   10.20%   0.00%   2.04%  Kumamoto
大分    53.49%   6.98%   60.47%   34.88%   0.00%   4.65%  Ōita
宮崎    66.67%   7.69%   64.36%   20.51%   0.00%   5.13%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 76.47%   5.88%   82.35%   11.76%   3.92%   1.96%  Kagoshima
沖縄    31.25%   8.33%   39.58%   43.75%   4.17% 12.50%  Okinawa
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total   58.27%   7.95%   66.22%   22.99%   5.60%   5.19%  (straight average)
Total   52.75%   9.44%   62.19%   22.11%  10.26%  5.44%  (weight by population)



A very good reason for LDP domination is that in any prefecture election there are more urban districts where the size of the district are 4- member or bigger and my rural districts where it is 2- member or 1- member districts.  In rural districts voting are non-ideological and local community leaders align with LDP given that LDP dominates almost all prefecture assemblies plus the national government.  This plus the FPTP nature of 1- and 2- member districts means that almost all candidates there, especially in rural prefectures, are just battles between different factions within LDP.

I broke out the latest prefecture assembly results between 4- member districts (or very urban 3- member districts) and above and those which are below.  The idea is to break out districts between those that vote ideologically (and have enough winners that it is worth its while for all mainstream blocs to participate) which I call "core seats" and those which voting are based on personal vote for local community leaders (almost all which align with LDP) where the vote share does not really reflect ideological orientation which I call "rural seats"

Lets take the prefecture you picked 岡山(Okayama)

For core seats the vote shares are

  LDP+         KP          LDP++     OPPN       TP           JCP
56.70%    14.45%    71.14%    22.99%    0.73%     5.14%

Seats share in core seats are

  LDP+         KP          LDP++     OPPN       TP           JCP
58.82%    14.71%   73.53%     20.59%   0.00%     5.88%

Which is not a surprise given 4- member and above districts sizes would imply the seat distribution would be quite PR.

For non core rural seats the seat share are

LDP+         OPPN
95.24%      4.76%

Which is a clean sweep by LDP+.

Note that even in core seats the LDP+ vote share far exceeds what the LDP PR vote in 2019 Upper House which took place in the same year as the prefecture election.

I will post complete date by prefecture later but for rural prefectures like  岡山(Okayama) LDP vote share even in core seats well exceeds what it gets in national elections PLUS a clean sweep of the LDP in non core rural seats adds to massive majorities in rural prefectures.
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jaichind
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« Reply #226 on: May 23, 2020, 08:22:44 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2020, 09:23:44 AM by jaichind »

A bunch of polls came out that were dreadful for Abe Cabinet.  Abe Cabinet approval curve now well below 40%



Party support have LDP (green) dropping some more


CDP (light blue) heading back up along with JCP (red).  JRP (light green) surge dropping off a bit


The worse being Mainichi poll which had Abe cabinet approval crashing to 27% and opposition rising to a record 64%


Same poll also have bad number for LDP in term of party support

LDP    24.5 (-5.6)
KP        3.7 (-0.8 )
JRP    11.3 (+0.3)
PNHK   0.7 (-0.6)
DPP     1.1 (-0.5)
CDP   11.8 (+3.0)
RS      1.3 (-0.5)
SDP    1.0 (+0.2)
JCP     6.6 (+1.6)

With CDP and JCP making major gains and LDP-KP dropping back a lot while JRP keeping its recent surge in support.

This is realated to the latest Abe scandal
"Japanese prosecutor seen close to Abe quits in gambling scandal"

https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2020/05/1bab67645e9a-urgent-top-prosecutor-intends-to-resign-over-gambling-scandal.html

This is a pretty sad scandal.  All he did was to play mahjong for money. What is the big deal..
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Nathan
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« Reply #227 on: May 23, 2020, 04:09:22 PM »


Yep, Chuugoku is currently one of the LDP heartlands (and I think it has been for a while now). Abe himself is from the Shimonoseki area at the western tip of Honshu.
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jaichind
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« Reply #228 on: May 24, 2020, 07:21:55 AM »

It seems the reason the Japanese prosecutor scandal hit Abe so hard is because he was up for aged based mandatory retirement earlier this year but his retirement was delayed.  He is a well known crony of Abe.  Then Abe tried to bundle a new legal change increasing the mandatory retirement age for prosecutors into an economic relief package and then it came out that the Abe friend Japanese prosecutor was caught playing mahjong for money.  Ok.  I still think this is overblown and on the long run Abe will survive this but I guess this scandal has a bit more meat then I thought.
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jaichind
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« Reply #229 on: May 25, 2020, 09:02:36 AM »



Chart of Abe Cabinet approval (red) and LDP support (green).  This current crisis seems worse for Abe than the Spring 2018 and Summer 2015 crisis period and at par with Summer 2017 crisis which was only resolved with a snap election which triggered the DP implosion and recovery of Abe.
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« Reply #230 on: May 25, 2020, 01:12:51 PM »

Wouldn’t a snap election be an awful move PR-wise?
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jaichind
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« Reply #231 on: May 26, 2020, 05:26:03 AM »

Wouldn’t a snap election be an awful move PR-wise?

It would.  Bear in mind the 2017 Abe maneuver worked only because DP was in the middle of imploding even as his support was falling.  The divided nature of the opposition gave him the chance to recover his authority by calling and winning a mid-term election.  And that only really worked because of the collapse of DP AND low turnout triggered by a hurricane on the weekend of the election. 

This time around if a hypothetical a mid-term election would still return a LDP-KP majority but LDP-KP will for sure lose ground relative to 2017 and not help restore the authority of Abe.  His best option still has to be to wait it out and hope that other news, like recovery from the virus, take hold over the current scandals.
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jaichind
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« Reply #232 on: May 26, 2020, 05:48:49 AM »



Aoki index since Abe came to power in late 2012.  Aoki index is (PM approval + Support of the ruling part) which came from 青木の法則 (Aoki's law).  青木 幹雄 (Aoki Mikio) was a general secretary of the LDP back in the late 1990s can came up with this index to measure support for the current ruling regime.

The general rule of thumb is that an  Aoki index of below 60 would mean certain election defeat (although LDP bloc managed to win a narrow majority in 2000 on an Aoki index of around 50 due to split opposition while Abe lost the 2007 Upper House elections with Aoki index of 69.8 due to united opposition) and usually there would be pressure for the PM to resign to make way for someone more popular.  Abe came close to this in the Summer of 2017 and is now beginning to testing that threshold.
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jaichind
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« Reply #233 on: May 27, 2020, 11:45:58 AM »


Agreed.  JCP these days is really more of a social democratic party than a real Communist party.  The commitment to ideology (other than the Pacifist Constitution) is fairly low when compared to various Communist parties in the world historically.   JCP in many ways represents the Old Social Democratic Left while the new woke Left actually finds itself in CDP.

The best example of this in the 2019 京都(Kyoto) Upper house elections.  LDP CDP and JCP are all running to win the 2 spots.  LDP will clearly win 1 of the 2 spots so the election was really a CDP vs JCP battle for the remaining spot. I was sure that the LDP and KP vote would tactically vote CDP to beat back JCP. But it turns out the CDP candidate is a LGBT activist and is a lesbian.  So despite the non-JCP Center-Left Opposition base being bigger than JCP in  京都(Kyoto)  it seems that more LDP and KP voted tactically for JCP to stop CDP than the other way around.  As much as KP hates JCP their social conservatism lead them to vote JCP to beat back the new woke left. 

In other words JCP is Bernie Sanders and CDP is Kamala Harris.
Bernie Sanders is more “woke” culturally then Kamala Harris though.

Well in many ways JCP is more "woke" than CDP in paper but JCP does not focus on that topic to attract votes but instead focuses on old Socialist pacifist issues to attract votes.  I feel Sanders does the same. On the other hand CDP tend to try to attract urban women middle class vote focus more on "woke" type issues.  BTW, RS is trying to muscle their way into this vote cutting into the CDP vote which clearly took place back in the 2019 Upper House elections. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #234 on: June 05, 2020, 03:54:40 PM »

If seems the DPP might be headed for a split.  There are talk that former DP leader 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) might lead his faction to merge with the JRP.  前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) is coming out in favor of the JRP Osaka Metropolitan plan.   DPP source say that there are divisions within the party  on an alliance with JCP along with CDP which is leading to fissures.  With the surge in JRP support recently the 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) Rightist faction within the DPP now thinks there are electoral benefits into alliance with JRP.  It is not clear a break will necessary take place but DPP clearly is having problems holding its party together. 
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PSOL
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« Reply #235 on: June 05, 2020, 05:11:15 PM »

If seems the DPP might be headed for a split.  There are talk that former DP leader 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) might lead his faction to merge with the JRP.  前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) is coming out in favor of the JRP Osaka Metropolitan plan.   DPP source say that there are divisions within the party  on an alliance with JCP along with CDP which is leading to fissures.  With the surge in JRP support recently the 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) Rightist faction within the DPP now thinks there are electoral benefits into alliance with JRP.  It is not clear a break will necessary take place but DPP clearly is having problems holding its party together. 
Would the rump DPP stick it alone or join the CDP?
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jaichind
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« Reply #236 on: June 06, 2020, 06:41:23 AM »

If seems the DPP might be headed for a split.  There are talk that former DP leader 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) might lead his faction to merge with the JRP.  前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) is coming out in favor of the JRP Osaka Metropolitan plan.   DPP source say that there are divisions within the party  on an alliance with JCP along with CDP which is leading to fissures.  With the surge in JRP support recently the 前原誠司(Seiji Maehara) Rightist faction within the DPP now thinks there are electoral benefits into alliance with JRP.  It is not clear a break will necessary take place but DPP clearly is having problems holding its party together. 
Would the rump DPP stick it alone or join the CDP?

Unclear that DPP would even break up.  If it does I would expect DPP would continue as a party.  CDP has a fairly strong culturally Left agenda along with a strong anti-nuclear power stance which runs counter to the more socially conservative pro-nuclear power Rengo union that is the core of DPP.  Rengo is hostile to both JCP and LDP but has accepted a CDP-DPP-SDP-JCP alliance to defeat LDP but would not accept merging into CDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #237 on: June 06, 2020, 06:56:23 AM »

沖縄(Okinawa) prefecture elections tomorrow. 63 candidates will fight for 48 seats.  12 seats have already been elected due to the number of candidates not exceeding the number of MLA elected in said district.  So far for all 12 there is no change in partisan character (LDP-KP vs JRP vs non-JCP center-left vs JCP) except for KP not running in one district and the LDP candidate getting elected instead.

Relative to 2016, LDP-KP will run the same number of candidates although instead of 22 LDP 4 KP in 2016 it will now be 24 LDP 2 KP.  KP which takes a neutral stance on the base issues feels the squeeze of polarization and under the KP rule of only running when there is a 99% chance of winning withdrew 2 candidates letting the LDP to try to win instead.  LDP-KP won 19 seats last time and most likely are hoping to keep their numbers the same.

The anti-base non-JCP Center-Left opposition will run 27 candidates versus 33 in 2016.  In 2016 it was clear that LDP-KP took a hammering in terms of vote share there seat loss was minor due to over-nomination by the anti-base pro-Governor bloc.  They won 21 seats in 2016 and this time they are going to be conservative to try to build on their majority.   

The JCP will have 7 candidates just like 2016 where they won 6.  They are hoping win 7 this time.  The seat they lost in 2016 was in 糸満市(Itoman City) where it was a 3 way race for 2 seats with the vote share between LDP, pro-governor anti-base AO, and JCP being very close.  JCP will want to try to win this seat either from LDP or AO.

JRP ran 4 candidates in 2016 winning 2 and this time the 2 JRP MLAs will run as pro-JRP independents.  JRP, like KP, takes a neutral stance on the base issue but have a slight lean toward of being anti-base.  Anyhow given polarization on the base issue JRP clearly is being squeezed so their hope this time is just to hold on two the 2 seats.  There is one more Third pole independent in the race that seems to take a Right wing but anti-base position but most likely will not win a relevant number of votes.     
 
Overall the anti-base Center-left and JCP alliance are hoping to increase their majority and this time seems well coordinated unlike 2016 to try to take down the number of LDP seats.  I suspect LDP might end up cannibalizing some of the JRP vote and take down 1 of the JRP incumbents along the way.
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jaichind
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« Reply #238 on: June 06, 2020, 07:16:57 AM »
« Edited: June 06, 2020, 11:25:28 AM by jaichind »

The main risk for the LDP is in 那覇市(Naha city) district where 11 MLAs will be elected.  In 2016 LDP nominated 4 candidates and won 3 while KP nominated 2 candidates and won both (as expected.)   But the Center-Left non-JCP anti-base bloc nominated 8 and only won 3 (JCP winning 2 and JRP winning 1).  

This time around KP only nominated 1 so LDP nominated 5 but 2 other pro-LDP candidates are running and the Center-Left non-JCP anti-base bloc will only nominate 5 along with JCP and JRP nominating their 2 and 1 incumbents.  There is a real chance of a LDP wipe out unless LDP vote is distributed well and the Center-Left non-JCP anti-base bloc vote is distributed poorly.  

My current projections are (change from 2016 results)

LDP             16 (+1)
KP                2 (-2)
JRP               1 (-1)
Center-Left  23 (+2)
JCP               6 (--)

The LDP could have some upside here in this projection if they can coordinate 那覇市(Naha city) vote well AND steal a seat in one of the other smaller districts where they came close to winning in 2016.

This election will be a test of the continued salience of the base issue which it clearly has been since 2014.
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jaichind
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« Reply #239 on: June 06, 2020, 07:40:56 AM »

It seems that a brewing scandal in 広島(Hiroshima) is about to explode.  Lower house LDP MP 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) who is known to be close to Abe it seems will be charged soon with vote buying in the 2019  広島(Hiroshima) Upper House election for his wife 河井案里(Kawai Anri) who was one of the 2 LDP candidates and won. 

The entire  広島(Hiroshima)  Upper House race always seems fishy to enemies of Abe within the LDP. The 広島(Hiroshima) district elects 2 members and has always been shared between the LDP and the Center-Left Opposition with 1 each.  The LDP incumbent up for re-election in 2019 was known not to be  on good terms with Abe.   The LDP high command decided to run 2 candidates in 2019 pointing to the 2016 results

LDP      49.76%    elected
DP       23.15%     elected
JRP      13.82%
JCP       7.75%
PJK       2.47%

and said "Hey, PJK has since merged into LDP and JRP looks like will not run in 2019, so we should have enough votes to win both seats."  The LDP incumbent was fairly distraught by this but accepted  the LDP high command (aka Abe) decision.

The result ended up being

Center-Left incumbent     32.31% elected
LDP                                28.99% elected (河井案里(Kawai Anri)) 
LDP incumbent                26.47% (not on good terms with Abe)
JCP                                  6.94%

So while the LDP did a good job distributing its vote, it did not come close to winning both seats.  And along the way, abracadabra, the anti-Abe LDP incumbent was replaced with a pro-Abe MP.

After the election there were rumors that toward the end the LDP knew that they would not win both seats but  the 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) machine decided to go all out to shift votes to 河井案里(Kawai Anri) to ensure that she got elected and not the LDP incumbent.    Then  more evidence came out that the 河井克行(Kawai Katsuyuki) machine might have indulged in vote buying.  In March, secretaries of the political power couple were charged with bribery and now it seems they will close in on both MPs.

This will not look good for Abe who has to hope it stops here and do not somehow have LDP high command implicated.
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jaichind
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« Reply #240 on: June 07, 2020, 05:44:30 AM »

Voting in progress in Okinawa prefecture elections and should end soon.  Turnout so far is well below 2016 levels given the virus situation.  Should be good news for LDP but also JCP 
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jaichind
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« Reply #241 on: June 07, 2020, 06:08:56 AM »

Exit polls are rumored to say that LDP-KP has failed to win a majority which is not a surprise.  Now it is about the size of the anti-base majority.
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« Reply #242 on: June 07, 2020, 08:53:08 AM »

With about half the vote in LDP and JRP are out-preforming.  The anti-base bloc of Center-Left plus JCP will retain majority but most likely will lose a seat or two versus gaining on LDP-KP and JRP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #243 on: June 07, 2020, 09:24:19 AM »

With only seats in 那覇市(Naha city) not called it is so far

LDP             17
KP                2
JRP               1
Center-Left  16
JCP              7

With 5 left to call they are most likely going to be LDP 2 JRP 1 Center-Left 2
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jaichind
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« Reply #244 on: June 07, 2020, 11:06:54 AM »
« Edited: June 08, 2020, 06:41:15 AM by jaichind »

All votes counted.  LDP-KP gained 2 seats from 2016

                       Contest    Win    Vote share
LDP                     25         19        36.50%
KP                        2           2          6.04%
JRP                       2           2         3.93%
Center-Left          28         18        41.64%
JCP                      7            7        11.89%

Back in 2016 it was

                       Contest    Win    Vote share
LDP                     23         15        34.39%
KP                        4           4          6.26%
JRP                       4           2          5.26%
Center-Left          32         21        43.61%
JCP                      7            6        10.46%

Turnout mainly fell in urban areas which indicates the decline of the salience of the base issue. LDP's base held up in rural areas and LDP effectively allocated its votes to maximize its seat count. JRP vote shifted to LDP as expected while KP (taking into account that it ran less candidates) and JCP vote share went up due to lower turnout.
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jaichind
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« Reply #245 on: June 07, 2020, 01:21:12 PM »

In the end, in 那覇市(Naha city) , the sole KP candidate won more than enough votes for 2 KP candidates to win had it been split evenly.  So the KP move of nominating one candidate versus two the last few cycles was overly cautious allowing the LDP to pick up an extra seats.  Of course the KP only plays if it is sure thing.  The KP, and everyone else,  under-estimated how many of the anti-base opposition vote would flow to the son of the deceased anti-base governor who died in Aug 2018.  It seems there was a massive sympathy vote for the ex-governor son lower the threshold for winning a seat and most likely costing the anti-base Center-Left bloc one seat. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #246 on: June 07, 2020, 01:42:43 PM »

Abe cabinet approval curve stabilizes

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jaichind
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« Reply #247 on: June 07, 2020, 01:44:43 PM »

NHK exit poll of Okinawa Prefecture election has Abe Cabinet approval/disapproval at 29/71,  This means the local LDP-KP way outperformed the Abe cabinet level of support.
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jaichind
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« Reply #248 on: June 07, 2020, 04:21:34 PM »

Now that the Okinawa prefecture election is over, other than Tokyo which will be held in June 2021, the 2019-2021 local election cycle is pretty much over.  Now would be a good time to post some more data which allows us to do apples-to-apples comparisons between prefectures.

The core problem is for many districts (especially 1- and 2-) not enough candidates run so no election is held.  Also in many rural districts voting is based on clientelism with all local politicians are from different factions of the LDP.  Both these factors will skew both the vote share and seat share results.

I looked at this problem and solved it this way.  I broke all districts into two types: a) 4- member district or larger along with some urbanized 3- member districts where almost all the time it is contested, voting is more likely to be based on ideological grounds with KP, Third Pole, and JCP candidates often in the mix b) rural districts where voting is much less likely to be on ideological grounds but on clientelism with many of these districts uncontested or battles between LDP factions.

The core districts should give a good sense of local election vote share (with an more urban bias or course.)   The core district seat share should mostly match vote share since with most of these districts 4- member or larger you would expect the seats share to be more PR.
 
As before the blocs are LDP+ (LDP, pro-LDP independents, LDP rebels), KP (in rare cases KP backed independents), Center-Left (non-JCP Center-Left candidates), Third Pole (non-LDP Center-Right candidates including parties JRP TPFA etc etc), JCP.  LDP++ is LDP+ plus KP since in almost all cases KP is allied with LDP.

Core district vote share by prefecture

                                               Center    Third
Pref     LDP+       KP      LDP++   Left       Pole       JCP
北海道 42.24% 15.03% 57.27% 30.26%  0.68%  11.79% Hokkaido
青森    48.52% 10.18% 58.70% 32.50%  0.00%   8.81%  Aomori
岩手    21.89%  2.65%  24.55% 57.17%  9.77%   8.52%  Iwate
宮城    41.15% 12.84% 53.98% 26.78%  4.62%  14.62% Miyagi
秋田    51.69%  5.23%  56.92% 36.41%  0.00%   6.67%  Akita
山形    51.65%  4.90%  56.55% 34.86%  0.00%   8.59%  Yamagata
福島    47.43% 11.91% 59.34% 28.20%  0.00%  12.46% Fukushima
茨城    45.52% 18.19% 63.71% 24.75%  0.00%  11.34% Ibaraki
栃木    55.34% 11.55% 66.89% 20.32%  5.58%   7.21%  Tochigi
群馬    54.87% 11.69% 66.56% 25.99%  0.00%   7.45%  Gunma
埼玉    35.15% 22.80% 57.95% 25.80%  0.82%  15.43% Saitama
千葉    40.79% 17.10% 57.90% 27.69%  2.07%  12.35% Chiba
神奈川 44.32%  9.13%  53.45% 31.67%  2.88%  12.00% Kanagawa
山梨    50.66% 12.94% 63.59% 23.02%  0.00%  13.39% Yamanashi
東京    22.07% 17.76% 39.83% 10.16% 35.35% 14.16% Tokyo
新潟    49.05% 10.17% 59.22% 30.84%  0.00%   9.94%  Niigata
富山    71.04%  6.75%  77.79% 12.99%  1.87%   7.22%  Toyama
石川    68.96%  6.95%  75.91% 20.49%  0.00%   3.52%  Ishikawa
福井    65.21%  5.73%  70.93% 25.51%  0.00%   3.56%  Fukui
長野    37.96% 16.45% 54.41% 26.49%  4.85%  14.25% Nagano
岐阜    51.03% 12.80% 63.83% 24.36%  0.00%  11.80% Gifu
静岡    46.36% 16.83% 63.19% 30.32%  0.00%   6.49%  Shizuoka
愛知    42.65% 13.04% 55.68% 29.13%  5.01%  10.17% Aichi
三重    41.92%  9.14%  51.06% 41.39%  0.00%   7.54%  Mie
滋賀    51.65%  6.24%  57.89% 29.07%  0.00%  13.04% Shiga
京都    35.60% 14.10% 49.70% 18.85%  6.28%  25.16% Kyoto
大阪    16.75% 15.69% 32.44% 10.73% 46.40% 10.42% Osaka
兵庫    36.50% 16.67% 53.17% 21.65% 12.99% 12.18% Hyōgo
奈良    42.41% 13.51% 55.92% 19.91% 12.84% 11.34% Nara
和歌山 39.89% 19.92% 59.80% 22.71%  7.11%  10.38% Wakayama
鳥取    50.05% 15.94% 65.99% 25.17%  1.57%   7.01%  Tottori
島根    63.06%  9.84%  72.90% 19.85%  0.00%   6.82%  Shimane
岡山    56.70% 14.45% 71.14% 22.99%  0.73%   5.14%  Okayama
広島    54.77% 10.71% 65.49% 26.35%  4.06%   4.10%  Hiroshima
山口    59.78% 14.47% 74.24% 17.03%  1.88%   6.85%  Yamaguchi
徳島    55.46%  9.70%  65.16% 21.96%  0.00%  12.88% Tokushima
香川    53.12% 12.36% 65.47% 25.54%  0.00%   8.98%  Kagawa
愛媛    52.62%  9.14%  61.77% 19.02% 14.93%  4.29%  Ehime
高知    32.29% 19.02% 51.31% 27.84%  0.00%  20.85% Kōchi
福岡    48.41% 18.91% 67.32% 25.72%  0.23%   6.73%  Fukuoka
佐賀    54.92% 13.45% 68.37% 22.33%  0.00%   9.31%  Saga
長崎    52.77% 11.70% 64.46% 29.39%  0.00%   6.15%  Nagasaki
熊本    60.73% 14.24% 74.98% 19.59%  0.00%   5.44%  Kumamoto
大分    41.17% 15.29% 56.45% 35.69%  0.00%   7.75%  Ōita
宮崎    53.14% 17.22% 70.36% 24.71%  0.00%   4.93%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 53.90% 10.23% 64.13% 22.51%  9.95%   3.15%  Kagoshima
沖縄    31.30%  8.97%  40.27% 42.14%  5.83%  11.75% Okinawa
Total   41.01% 14.05% 55.06% 23.74% 10.29% 10.82%



Core district seat share by prefecture

                                               Center    Third
Pref     LDP+       KP      LDP++   Left       Pole       JCP
北海道 43.48% 17.39% 60.87% 34.78%  0.00%   4.35%  Hokkaido
青森    42.86% 10.71% 53.57% 35.71%  0.00%  10.71% Aomori
岩手    16.67%  4.17%  20.83% 54.17% 12.50% 12.50% Iwate
宮城    45.45% 12.12% 57.58% 27.27%  3.03%  12.12% Miyagi
秋田    52.00%  4.00%  56.00% 40.00%  0.00%   4.00%  Akita
山形    47.37%  5.26%  52.63% 36.84%  0.00%  10.53% Yamagata
福島    46.88% 12.50% 59.38% 28.13%  0.00%  12.50% Fukushima
茨城    46.67% 20.00% 66.67% 20.00%  0.00%  13.33% Ibaraki
栃木    59.09% 13.64% 72.73% 18.18%  4.55%   4.55%  Tochigi
群馬    55.56% 11.11% 66.67% 25.93%  0.00%   7.41%  Gunma
埼玉    25.00% 28.57% 53.57% 28.57%  0.00%  17.86% Saitama
千葉    42.11% 21.05% 63.16% 28.95%  2.63%   5.26%  Chiba
神奈川 40.00% 14.00% 54.00% 36.00%  0.00%  10.00% Kanagawa
山梨    55.56% 11.11% 66.67% 22.22%  0.00%  11.11% Yamanashi
東京    17.78% 24.44% 42.22%  4.44%  33.33% 20.00% Tokyo
新潟    47.06% 11.76% 58.82% 35.29%  0.00%   5.88%  Niigata
富山    77.78%  5.56%  83.33% 11.11%  0.00%   5.56%  Toyama
石川    66.67%  8.33%  75.00% 20.83%  0.00%   4.17%  Ishikawa
福井    61.90%  4.76%  66.67% 28.57%  0.00%   4.76%  Fukui
長野    40.00% 16.67% 56.67% 26.67%  3.33%  13.33% Nagano
岐阜    53.85% 15.38% 69.23% 23.08%  0.00%   7.69%  Gifu
静岡    44.00% 20.00% 64.00% 32.00%  0.00%   4.00%  Shizuoka
愛知    46.67% 20.00% 66.67% 30.00%  3.33%   0.00%  Aichi
三重    43.33%  6.67%  50.00% 46.67%  0.00%   3.33%  Mie
滋賀    44.44%  7.41%  51.85% 33.33%  0.00%  14.81% Shiga
京都    35.29% 14.71% 50.00% 17.65%  5.88%  26.47% Kyoto
大阪    18.52% 25.93% 44.44%  7.41%  40.74%  7.41%  Osaka
兵庫    37.78% 20.00% 57.78% 20.00% 13.33%  8.89%  Hyōgo
奈良    47.37% 15.79% 63.16% 15.79% 10.53% 10.53% Nara
和歌山 40.00% 20.00% 60.00% 26.67%  6.67%   6.67%  Wakayama
鳥取    52.38% 14.29% 66.67% 28.57%  0.00%   4.76%  Tottori
島根    65.00% 10.00% 75.00% 15.00%  0.00%  10.00% Shimane
岡山    58.82% 14.71% 73.53% 20.59%  0.00%   5.88%  Okayama
広島    58.14% 13.95% 72.09% 23.26%  2.33%   2.33%  Hiroshima
山口    61.76% 14.71% 76.47% 17.65%  0.00%   5.88%  Yamaguchi
徳島    50.00% 11.11% 61.11% 27.78%  0.00%  11.11% Tokushima
香川    52.63% 10.53% 63.16% 26.32%  0.00%  10.53% Kagawa
愛媛    58.82%  5.88%  64.71% 14.71% 17.65%  2.94%  Ehime
高知    33.33% 20.00% 53.33% 20.00%  0.00%  26.67% Kōchi
福岡    47.22% 22.22% 69.44% 25.00%  0.00%   5.56%  Fukuoka
佐賀    58.82% 11.76% 70.59% 17.65%  0.00%  11.76% Saga
長崎    55.56% 11.11% 66.67% 29.63%  0.00%   3.70%  Nagasaki
熊本    57.14% 14.29% 71.43% 23.81%  0.00%   4.76%  Kumamoto
大分    27.78% 16.67% 44.44% 44.44%  0.00%  11.11% Ōita
宮崎    52.17% 13.04% 65.22% 26.09%  0.00%   8.70%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 56.00% 12.00% 68.00% 20.00%  8.00%   4.00%  Kagoshima
沖縄    33.33%  6.06%  39.39% 39.39%  6.06%  15.15% Okinawa
Total   40.20% 17.08% 57.27% 23.26%  9.23%  10.23%


As expected the core district seat share mostly map pretty cleanly onto the core district vote share with the exception that KP always outperforms in seat share at the expense of everyone else since the KP vote is always distributed optimally to win every seat it contests.

For non-core seats I only computed seats share since a vote share computation is irrelevant since in many cases the seats are not contested.


Non-Core district seat share by prefecture

                                               Center    Third
Pref     LDP+       KP      LDP++   Left       Pole       JCP
北海道 61.11%  0.00%  61.11%  37.04% 0.00%  1.85%  Hokkaido
青森    95.00%  0.00%  95.00%   5.00%  0.00%  0.00%  Aomori
岩手    41.67%  0.00%  41.67%  50.00% 8.33%  0.00%  Iwate
宮城    69.23%  0.00%  69.23%  23.08% 3.85%  3.85%  Miyagi
秋田    77.78%  0.00%  77.78%  22.22% 0.00%  0.00%  Akita
山形    79.17%  0.00%  79.17%  20.83% 0.00%  0.00%  Yamagata
福島    61.54%  0.00%  61.54%  34.62% 0.00%  3.85%  Fukushima
茨城    91.49%  2.13%  93.62%   6.38%  0.00%  0.00%  Ibaraki
栃木    82.14%  0.00%  82.14%  17.86% 0.00%  0.00%  Tochigi
群馬    86.96%  0.00%  86.96%  13.04% 0.00%  0.00%  Gunma
埼玉    66.15%  1.54%  67.69%  30.77% 0.00%  1.54%  Saitama
千葉    73.21%  0.00%  73.21%  26.79% 0.00%  0.00%  Chiba
神奈川 63.64%  1.82%  65.45%  34.55% 0.00%  0.00%  Kanagawa
山梨    82.14%  0.00%  82.14%  17.86% 0.00%  0.00%  Yamanashi
東京    18.92%  2.70%  21.62%   5.41% 70.27% 2.70%  Tokyo
新潟    69.44%  0.00%  69.44%  30.56% 0.00%  0.00%  Niigata
富山    90.91%  0.00%  90.91%   4.55%  0.00%  4.55%  Toyama
石川    84.21%  0.00%  84.21%  15.79% 0.00%  0.00%  Ishikawa
福井    93.75%  0.00%  93.75%   6.25%  0.00%  0.00%  Fukui
長野    62.96% 14.81% 77.78%  18.52% 0.00%  3.70%  Nagano
岐阜    81.82%  0.00%  81.82%  18.18% 0.00%  0.00%  Gifu
静岡    72.09%  0.00%  72.09%  27.91% 0.00%  0.00%  Shizuoka
愛知    62.50%  0.00%  62.50%  36.11% 1.39%  0.00%  Aichi
三重    61.90%  0.00%  61.90%  38.10% 0.00%  0.00%  Mie
滋賀    52.94%  0.00%  52.94%  47.06% 0.00%  0.00%  Shiga
京都    69.23%  0.00%  69.23%  19.23% 0.00% 11.54% Kyoto
大阪    18.03%  13.11% 31.15%  0.00% 68.85% 0.00%  Osaka
兵庫    63.41%  9.76%  73.17%  17.07% 7.32%  2.44%  Hyōgo
奈良    75.00%  0.00%  75.00%   8.33%  8.33%  8.33%  Nara
和歌山 85.19%  0.00%  85.19%   3.70%  0.00% 11.11% Wakayama
鳥取    71.43%  0.00%  71.43%  28.57% 0.00%  0.00%  Tottori
島根    88.24%  0.00%  88.24%  11.76% 0.00%  0.00%  Shimane
岡山    95.24%  0.00%  95.24%   4.76%  0.00%  0.00%  Okayama
広島    80.95%  0.00%  80.95%  19.05% 0.00%  0.00%  Hiroshima
山口    84.62%  0.00%  84.62%  15.38% 0.00%  0.00%  Yamaguchi
徳島    85.00%  0.00%  85.00%  15.00% 0.00%  0.00%  Tokushima
香川    81.82%  0.00%  81.82%  18.18% 0.00%  0.00%  Kagawa
愛媛    84.62%  0.00%  84.62%   0.00% 15.38% 0.00%  Ehime
高知    77.27%  0.00%  77.27%  18.18% 0.00%  4.55%  Kōchi
福岡    70.59%  3.92%  74.51%  25.49% 0.00%  0.00%  Fukuoka
佐賀    90.48%  0.00%  90.48%   9.52%  0.00%  0.00%  Saga
長崎    89.47%  0.00%  89.47%  10.53% 0.00%  0.00%  Nagasaki
熊本   100.00% 0.00% 100.00%   0.00% 0.00%  0.00%  Kumamoto
大分    72.00%  0.00%  72.00%  28.00% 0.00%  0.00%  Ōita
宮崎    87.50%  0.00%  87.50%  12.50% 0.00%  0.00%  Miyazaki
鹿児島 96.15%  0.00%  96.15%   3.85%  0.00%  0.00%  Kagoshima
沖縄    53.33%  0.00%  53.33%  33.33% 0.00% 13.33% Okinawa
Total   64.26%  2.45%  66.71%  20.93% 11.18% 1.17%

As expected, there are massive LDP blowouts in many rural prefectures where the various LDP factions monopolize local political talent and other parties do not bother running which reinforces this phenomenon.    
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jaichind
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« Reply #249 on: June 07, 2020, 06:06:59 PM »

Some takeaways from the core vote share/seat share and non-core seat share by prefecture

1) A weight by population average core vote share calculation has LDP at around 41% which is clearly higher than the typical PR vote share in recent national elections of around 35% and that is when this number is derived with an urban bias which should work against the LDP.  This shows the extent of the local talent edge the LDP has even in urban areas.  This over-performance seems to be at the expense of the Center-Left in urban areas and Third pole in rural areas.

2) Local elections are where KP tend to focus its effort relative to national elections.  KP is always fearful that the Soka Gakkai which KP is based on might get banned.  Usually these types of decisions are made by prefecture governments ergo that is where the KP puts its effort into.  The fact that KP gets on average 17% of the core seats speaks to the strength of the KP at the prefecture level.  KP seems especially strong in dense urban areas

3) KP only runs in seats it has a 99% of chance of winning ergo they almost never contest in non-core seats since the number of members elected is too small for the KP vote share to ensure a victory.  One large exception is 長野(Nagano) where it seems a faction of the LDP has gone over to KP and runs as a KP backed independents in addition to caucusing with KP.  KP is also very strong in 大阪(Osaka) and 兵庫(Hyōgo) where it has a de facto understanding with JRP and LDP that they are able to wins seats even in non-core districts.
 
4) Looking at non-core districts one sees that in rural prefectures the LDP share of of the non-core seats are often higher than 80% and even sometimes above 90%.  In 熊本(Kumamoto) it is an amazing 100%.  In 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka) TPFA and JRP swept aside LDP in these seats.  TPFA mostly did this due to its alliance with KP in the 2017 elections while what JRP achieved in  大阪(Osaka) is truely impressive as it has taken over the local leadership talent pool from the LDP.  In 2021 東京(Tokyo) elections it is clear that TPFA will lose a lot of ground to both LDP and CDP.

5) Looking at non-core districts where LDP do not completely dominate pretty much maps to the competitive prefectures at the national level.  Namely:北海道(Hokkaido), 岩手(Iwate), 福島(Fukushima), 埼玉   (Saitama), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 長野(Nagano), 愛知(Aichi), 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 沖縄(Okinawa).    In some prefectures the main opponent to LDP ends not being the Center-Left at the local level like: 京都(Kyoto) (JCP at par with the Center-Left), 富山(Toyama) (JCP at par with the Center-Left), 奈良(Nara) (JRP at part with the Center-Left), 和歌山(Wakayama) (JCP and JRP at par with the Center-left), and 愛媛(Ehime) (JRP has take over the opposition space).

6) In rural prefectures the number of seats in non-core areas are relatively large and since the LDP sweeps those seats you get some massive LDP majorities in the more rural prefectures overall.  A core seat analysis of those prefectures still gives the LDP a massive vote share plurality and in some cases majority (the LDP vote share even in core districts in 富山(Toyama), 石川(Ishikawa), and 福井(Fukui) are a massive >65%) but the gap is not as massive and closer to the true level of LDP support at the national level.
 
7) There are some prefectures where it is competitive nationally but the LDP in non-core districts still dominate which speaks to the power of the local LDP machine.  They are:宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 山形(Yamagata), 千葉(Chiba), 新潟(Niigata) and 大分(Ōita).  In all these cases the level of domination of the LDP in non-core districts is significant but not as massive as true LDP strongholds.
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