Japan General Discussion: Abe Carries On

[Continential]

I wonder if North Korea even funds the JCP anymore as it has Nukes and no reason to fund Anti-American Candidates that oppose the bases because America can't invade NK?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I wonder if North Korea even funds the JCP anymore as it has Nukes and no reason to fund Anti-American Candidates that oppose the bases because America can't invade NK?

the JCP has never in recent history, if I recall, got funds from NK (correct me if I'm wrong here). It has always been at least mainly self-funding. They don't take money from corporations either.
This is why they have a reputation for honesty and integrity.

[jaichind]

I wonder if North Korea even funds the JCP anymore as it has Nukes and no reason to fund Anti-American Candidates that oppose the bases because America can't invade NK?

I do not think JCP had every received any funding from DPRK. Understand in Japan, a Japanese Communist has a lot more in common with another Japanese than another Communist from another country.

[jaichind]

Tokyo Governor election will be July 5th 2020.  Koike will faces no real opposition with LDP and other opposition parties not running a candidate.  Only candidates running are fringe parties like PNHK, HRP, Far Right JFP (led by 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)  who also ran in 2016) and minor Leftist Olive Tree. 

The Okinawa(沖縄) prefecture election will be June 7th will be more competitive as it will pit the anti-base Center-Left-JCP ruling bloc to try to retain its majority over LDP-KP and JRP.  With the virus crisis the base issue will have less salience and I suspect LDP-KP and JRP will both make gains.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Tokyo Governor election will be July 5th 2020.  Koike will faces no real opposition with LDP and other opposition parties not running a candidate.  Only candidates running are fringe parties like PNHK, HRP, Far Right JFP (led by 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)  who also ran in 2016) and minor Leftist Olive Tree.

Does JFP have any connection to the various post-Ishihara excrescences (JRP 1.0, PFG, PJK, etc.) or is Sakurai his own man?

[jaichind]

Tokyo Governor election will be July 5th 2020.  Koike will faces no real opposition with LDP and other opposition parties not running a candidate.  Only candidates running are fringe parties like PNHK, HRP, Far Right JFP (led by 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto)  who also ran in 2016) and minor Leftist Olive Tree.

Does JFP have any connection to the various post-Ishihara excrescences (JRP 1.0, PFG, PJK, etc.) or is Sakurai his own man?

He is independent of those Third pole parties.  I would call 日本第一党(JFP) or Japan First Party (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_First_Party) a Far Right protest party than a real Third Pole party.  I view a party as a Third Pole party as a non-LDP Center-Right party (mostly some form of a LDP splinter) but that had links to the establishment.  Parties like JFP, HRP and PNHK are Right wing protest parties that often does pick up disgruntled LDP or Third Pole voters but are not linked at all to the establishment.

As for  桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) and parties like JRP, the relationship is actually fairly hostile.  Back in 2014 when JRP leader 橋下徹 (Hashimoto) was still governor of 大阪(Osaka), 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) led a series of protests against Korean language schools which seems to be funded by DPRK.  The government of 大阪(Osaka) indicated that the speeches 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) gave bordered on hate speech and threatened to prosecute 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) on those grounds.  This led to a public spat between 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) and Hashimoto which led to a publicly televised debate between the two (see youtube link which has 4.2 million views) 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ACRxHAC-tyg&t=91s

The debate led to two near incidents of Hashimoto and 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) going to blows within the first 8 minutes and the debate ended after 8 minutes with Hashimoto walking out the door.  The entire "debate" was pretty funny. 

On the issues I think as long as the government is not paying for it the local Koreans should be allowed to have their own Korean language schools if they are willing to pay for it themselves.  On the other hand I agree with 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) in that I reject the notion of hate speech.  There might be acts of violence which of course would cross the line but 桜井誠(Sakurai Makoto) should be able to say anything he wants up to the point of actually committing physical violence.   

[jaichind]

LDP made it official that it will not run a candidate in the Tokyo governor race.   I guess in a few days it will come out to back Koike.  This sort of flexibility and ability to contain conflict is one of the main reasons why the LDP continues to dominate Japanese politics.  Koike was and still is a de facto LDP rebel that tried to take down Abe and the LDP back in 2017.   Despite this the LDP overall is not emotional about it and are taking political calculated steps on what is best for LDP as an organization on the long run despite clear personal hostility between key members of the Tokyo LDP and Koike.  This sort of practical  thinking  also allows the LDP to contain intra-party conflict that allows the party to unite post-election even if there are cases where different factions of the LDP might run against each other in various electoral battles of sorts.   The key LDP rule is "if you win you are LDP" which means as long as you win and can bring political power and leverage to the LDP, all rebels are forgiven and let back into the fold despite what might have been said during the election campaign.

[Octowakandi]

Is there an article that talks about the major factions within the LDP? I'm also curious about Shinjiro Koizumi and whether he seems any closer to becoming LDP leader in the future. The rise of JRP would be interesting to see some competition on the right against the LDP.

[jaichind]

Latest polling trends:

Abe cabinet approval clearly falling to below 40%


Party support has LDP (green) clearly falling


CDP (light blue) also falling but seems to have stabilized while JRP (light green) surge seems real but also have peaked out. KP (orange) has gone but but that is more KP party ID people not hiding in LDP as much than any real increase. 

[jaichind]

Is there an article that talks about the major factions within the LDP? I'm also curious about Shinjiro Koizumi and whether he seems any closer to becoming LDP leader in the future. The rise of JRP would be interesting to see some competition on the right against the LDP.

Do google translate on the Japanese version of LDP factions on wiki.

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E8%87%AA%E7%94%B1%E6%B0%91%E4%B8%BB%E5%85%9A%E3%81%AE%E6%B4%BE%E9%96%A5

Shinjiro Koizumi  is fairly popular with the both LDP and non-LDP voters but within the LDP seniority has precedence so he will have to wait his turn which will be a while.  One way is for the LDP to be crushed like 2009 and then Shinjiro Koizumi comes in to win the leadership as an outsider and then lead LDP back to power in the next general election.

The way for a LDP politician to become PM is to be from a prominent and power political family but have your father either die early or  retire early.  Japanese political etiquette is that the son cannot enter politics when the father is still active in politics.  So if your father is active a long time in active politics you cannot become a MP until you are in your 40s which means by the time you have enough seniority to become head of LDP you will be too old and will have to retire.  But if you father retire (or die) early then you can become MP in your 20s.  Ozawa (who could have become PM), Abe and Shinjiro Koizumi all have this attribute of being elected MP in their 20s.  Ozawa and Abe had their father die early while Shinjiro Koizumi's father became PM fairly early in his life by winning as an outsider in 2001 LDP Prez election so he then retired early letting his son Shinjiro Koizumi  become MP in his 20s.  Given Shinjiro Koizumi was elected MP in 2009 I figure he will be a viable candidate for PM in the mid 2030s.

[jaichind]

Only example I can think of in Japanese politics where a father-son duo was in active politics at the same time was 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who was the founder of LDP splinter NLC (1976-1986) and then Prez of LDP during 1993-1995 and his son 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is the current LDP Minister of Defense.  The reason there is 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) mostly got elected on his own without support or help from his father's support organization.    As a result during 1996 to 2009 both father and son were MPs at the same time.

河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei)  is only 1 of 2 LDP presidents that did not become PM.  谷垣禎一(Tanigaki Sadakazu) who was head of LDP in 2009-2012 being the other LDP Prez that failed to become PM.  谷垣禎一(Tanigaki Sadakazu)  actually beat out 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) in the 2009 post landslide defeat LDP Prez race.  河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) ran as an anti-establishment candidate and was soundly beaten by  谷垣禎一(Tanigaki Sadakazu).

[NewYorkExpress]

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-05-20/top-tokyo-prosecutor-set-to-resign-public-broadcaster-nhk-says-citing-source

Tokyo's top prosecutor resigned on Thursday for gambling during Japan's coronavirus state of emergency, the justice minister said, in another blow to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, whose support has waned over his handling of the pandemic.

Tokyo High Public Prosecutors Office chief Hiromu Kurokawa, who is seen as close to Abe, has been at the centre of a furore over the government's efforts to raise the retirement age for prosecutors after he was allowed to stay in his post beyond retirement age of 63.

Abe's government this week abandoned its push to enact a bill during the current session of parliament that would raise prosecutors' retirement age to 65 from 63, and let the cabinet defer retirement of senior prosecutors for a further three years, a step critics said threatened judicial independence.

Kurokawa admitted to playing Majohng for money on two occasions during Japan's state of emergency.

Gambling is illegal in Japan, with some exceptions.

[PSOL]

On the JCP, is factionalism rife there as the rest of Japanese parties, or is it a centralized party?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

On the JCP, is factionalism rife there as the rest of Japanese parties, or is it a centralized party?

my general impression of the JCP is that by virtue of their ideological isolation they have to be more cohesive than other parties.

[jaichind]

On the JCP, is factionalism rife there as the rest of Japanese parties, or is it a centralized party?

my general impression of the JCP is that by virtue of their ideological isolation they have to be more cohesive than other parties.

Agreed.  JCP these days is really more of a social democratic party than a real Communist party.  The commitment to ideology (other than the Pacifist Constitution) is fairly low when compared to various Communist parties in the world historically.   JCP in many ways represents the Old Social Democratic Left while the new woke Left actually finds itself in CDP.

The best example of this in the 2019 京都(Kyoto) Upper house elections.  LDP CDP and JCP are all running to win the 2 spots.  LDP will clearly win 1 of the 2 spots so the election was really a CDP vs JCP battle for the remaining spot. I was sure that the LDP and KP vote would tactically vote CDP to beat back JCP. But it turns out the CDP candidate is a LGBT activist and is a lesbian.  So despite the non-JCP Center-Left Opposition base being bigger than JCP in  京都(Kyoto)  it seems that more LDP and KP voted tactically for JCP to stop CDP than the other way around.  As much as KP hates JCP their social conservatism lead them to vote JCP to beat back the new woke left. 

In other words JCP is Bernie Sanders and CDP is Kamala Harris.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

The JCP does collect large sums of money but the big chunk of that is taken up by maintaining their partisan newspaper, putting up candidates in as many places as is justifiable  (running in Japanese elections is an expensive proposition due to the many regulations), and popular campaigns they finance (such as the one that targetted the TPP). And they don't even get any money from the outside. No corporate money whatsoever, no foreign funding.
So all this is underwritten by their own supporters.
They have a well-earned reputation for incorruptability.

[PSOL]

On the JCP, is factionalism rife there as the rest of Japanese parties, or is it a centralized party?

my general impression of the JCP is that by virtue of their ideological isolation they have to be more cohesive than other parties.

Agreed.  JCP these days is really more of a social democratic party than a real Communist party.  The commitment to ideology (other than the Pacifist Constitution) is fairly low when compared to various Communist parties in the world historically.   JCP in many ways represents the Old Social Democratic Left while the new woke Left actually finds itself in CDP.

The best example of this in the 2019 京都(Kyoto) Upper house elections.  LDP CDP and JCP are all running to win the 2 spots.  LDP will clearly win 1 of the 2 spots so the election was really a CDP vs JCP battle for the remaining spot. I was sure that the LDP and KP vote would tactically vote CDP to beat back JCP. But it turns out the CDP candidate is a LGBT activist and is a lesbian.  So despite the non-JCP Center-Left Opposition base being bigger than JCP in  京都(Kyoto)  it seems that more LDP and KP voted tactically for JCP to stop CDP than the other way around.  As much as KP hates JCP their social conservatism lead them to vote JCP to beat back the new woke left. 

In other words JCP is Bernie Sanders and CDP is Kamala Harris.

Bernie Sanders is more “woke” culturally then Kamala Harris though.

[crals]

What is the SDP then?

[MaxQue]

What is the SDP then?

Pretty mch the political arm of the Prefecture and Municipal Workers Union, according to what I read. They are also considering merging with the CDP.

[Tintrlvr]

What is the SDP then?

Traditionally, the non-communist left, but of course as the JCP is no longer communist in any reasonable sense of the word, that distinction isn't there any more. The SDP is realistically an anti-American-military-base local Ryukyuan party these days and barely wins any support outside of Okinawa. Their main issue has been pacifism/disarmament since the early 00s and was what caused tensions with the DPJ when they were briefly in government after the 2009 election. Outside of some pretty extreme pacifist positions, they'd fit in quite comfortably with most left-wing parties around the globe.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

An interesting if somewhat unrelated thing: how much does the bureaucratic regulations surrounding electioneering in Japan (the deposit costs, the limitations on campaigning, etc) contribute to the heavily pro-incumbent political culture of the country?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

isn't the JCP pretty wealthy due to their popular newspaper and ultra-loyal supporters constantly paying dues?

Tons of money passes through the JCP but a lot of that money traditionally gets burned on deposit-losing (or whatever the equivalent term is in Japanese) campaigns for unwinnable seats, since until the last few years they weren't open to alliances with the non-communist left. (Plus the other expenses TimTurner mentioned.)

They're a quixotic and at times almost cultish party, but, like Tim said, not by any means a corrupt one.

An interesting if somewhat unrelated thing: how much does the bureaucratic regulations surrounding electioneering in Japan (the deposit costs, the limitations on campaigning, etc) contribute to the heavily pro-incumbent political culture of the country?

My understanding is: Enormously so. At the time that Abe first returned to power in 2012 I remember that being commented on as in fact the main reason why the LDP just kept on coming back come what may. Of course, the playing field has become even more structurally favorable to the LDP since then through things like the constant hookups and breakups of the various opposition forces, the persistence of the right-of-center "third pole", and the lurch to the right among younger voters coupled with the lowering of the voting age.

ETA: Incumbents also have various informal means of circumventing the tight campaigning regulations via the koenkai system that non-incumbents do not. We once had a poster called "koenkai" who, true to form for someone with that username, was an unapologetically pro-establishment evangelist for the administrative state. I think his avatar was R-NH.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E5%B2%A1%E5%B1%B1%E7%9C%8C%E8%AD%B0%E4%BC%9A
The LDP domination of prefectural assemblies in Chugoku is so complete it's almost absurd.