MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Del Tachi]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

The field looks set with CHS, McDaniel, Shelton and Espy.

[Doimper]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

The field looks set with CHS, McDaniel, Shelton and Espy.

Annoying. I wish a third Republican would have declared, this leaves a small opening for an R vs. R runoff.

[smoltchanov]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

The field looks set with CHS, McDaniel, Shelton and Espy.

So - 6 combinations of possible run-off pairs. CHS vs Espy looks most likely now, probably followed by CHS vs McDaniel. All other are also possible, but - less likely...

[OneJ]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

The field looks set with CHS, McDaniel, Shelton and Espy.

So - 6 combinations of possible run-off pairs. CHS vs Espy looks most likley now, probably followed by CHS vs McDaniel. All other are also possible, but - less likely...

It depends on the type(s) of voters Shelton is pulling. Because Tupelo is a decent sized city that is about 58-37 white-black. Black voters will likely overwhelmingly go to Espy regardless, in my opinion. Shelton seems popular, so he might be able to garner some support from the Northeastern portion of the state that likely would have gone to CHS or McDaniel. Ultimately, that would make things easier for Espy to enter the runoff.

[smoltchanov]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

The field looks set with CHS, McDaniel, Shelton and Espy.

So - 6 combinations of possible run-off pairs. CHS vs Espy looks most likley now, probably followed by CHS vs McDaniel. All other are also possible, but - less likely...

It depends on the type(s) of voters Shelton is pulling. Because Tupelo is a decent sized city that is about 58-37 white-black. Black voters will likely overwhelmingly go to Espy regardless, in my opinion. Shelton seems popular, so he might be able to garner some support from the Northeastern portion of the state that likely would have gone to CHS or McDaniel. Ultimately, that would make things easier for Espy to enter the runoff.

I am of very low opinion of Espy. Both because of his scandals, and because i don't believe, that a Black candidate can win statewide election in Mississippi. There were lots of attempts, but the best i can remember is Gary Anderson's 46.64% in Treasurer's race in 2003. So, i would prefer an Espy to simply drop-off, as he can lose a race even against McDaniel (and almost surely - against CHS). and Shelton to be a sole Democratic candidate. But - that's unlikely..

[OneJ]

Any news on more candidates declaring?

The field looks set with CHS, McDaniel, Shelton and Espy.

So - 6 combinations of possible run-off pairs. CHS vs Espy looks most likley now, probably followed by CHS vs McDaniel. All other are also possible, but - less likely...

It depends on the type(s) of voters Shelton is pulling. Because Tupelo is a decent sized city that is about 58-37 white-black. Black voters will likely overwhelmingly go to Espy regardless, in my opinion. Shelton seems popular, so he might be able to garner some support from the Northeastern portion of the state that likely would have gone to CHS or McDaniel. Ultimately, that would make things easier for Espy to enter the runoff.

I am of very low opinion of Espy. Both because of his scandals, and because i don't believe, that a Black candidate can win statewide election in Mississippi. There were lots of attempts, but the best i can remember is Gary Anderson's 46.64% in Treasurer's race in 2003. So, i would prefer an Espy to simply drop-off, as he can lose a race even against McDaniel (and almost surely - against CHS). and Shelton to be a sole Democratic candidate. But - that's unlikely..

I mean, I have my own doubts about Shelton. Sure, he can get a significant chunk of the white vote, but can he drive up turnout among black voters?

In the poll that the Espy campaign did (before Shelton entered the race, of course) revealed that he was getting 18% of the white vote, 65% of the black vote, and his total was at just 34%. Espy also has high name recognition. He's probably the best shot the Dems have at this point. Remember, there's still a decent amount of time left and many things can happen.

[smoltchanov]

^ May be. Still i remain very pessimistic about his chances because of reasons i formulated above. We will see.....

[Jeppe]

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/16/poll-cindy-hyde-smith-mike-espy-neck-and-neck-mcdaniel-distant-third-senate-race/520331002/

Looks like Hyde-Smith might get her Trump endorsement after all. McDaniel's campaign seems to have completely sunk after her appointment.

[KingSweden]

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/16/poll-cindy-hyde-smith-mike-espy-neck-and-neck-mcdaniel-distant-third-senate-race/520331002/

Looks like Hyde-Smith might get her Trump endorsement after all. McDaniel's campaign seems to have completely sunk after her appointment.

Way too early to theorize that

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Espy is getting 18% of white voters even vs CHS. Not bad, but he needs 22% minimum + huge black margins and turnout to even have a chance.

[7,052,770]

Espy is getting 18% of white voters even vs CHS. Not bad, but he needs 22% minimum + huge black margins and turnout to even have a chance.

I think Shelton has a more likely path to get over 50% in the runoff, since he could theoretically draw a lot of white Northeasterners who voted Trump.

I don't think he's particularly likely to make the runoff, and who knows if he actually would get the kind of pull that Hood and Presley get with those voters, I just think it's plausible that he could pull it off, even against CHS.

I don't see much chance of Espy winning in the runoff, unless he's matched up with an unpopular McDaniel who somehow made the runoff anyway, which seems like a pretty far-fetched scenario.

[GlobeSoc]

Espy is getting 18% of white voters even vs CHS. Not bad, but he needs 22% minimum + huge black margins and turnout to even have a chance.

Where would most of this deviation from normal racial polarization be coming from against CHS? Would it be throughout the state, or concentrated in specific areas?

[7,052,770]

It's fascinating to watch Atlas quickly come to a consensus of "Espy should drop out because he's black/blacks can't win." I've seen a variation on this comment several times now. Has anyone considered that no black candidate in Mississippi has ever had such strong potential as Espy?

I think Espy would survive public litigation of his scandal. There is literally a serving U.S. Senator guilty of far worse behavior when it comes to accepting improper gifts, and unlike Menendez, Espy has been fully cleared of wrongdoing (in an opinion written by Justice Scalia).

Also: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/11/seeking-cover-russia-probe-trump-lawyers-turn-controversial-1994-espy-investigation/1025213001/

Between Espy and Shelton, Espy is the much more credible general election candidate – especially since the number one winning issue for Democrats in this race will be soybean tariffs, which is something Secretary Espy can speak credibly on. (This is obviously negated/dampened if CHS is in the run-off with him.) The best/only chance for Democrats to win this race is Espy-McDaniel in the run-off.

If he brings back the mustache and glasses look, I'll donate $100 to him.

I disagree with this analysis all around. It's not simply that Shelton is white, but that's he's a popular mayor of a large city in the region with Mississippi's only elastic-ish voters, the Northeast. I don't have a good feel of whether people outside the Tupelo city limits care about him, but on paper he looks like a candidate who could plausibly beat either Republican candidate in the runoff.

[OneJ]

Crosstabs: https://www.scribd.com/document/376522285/Y-all-Politics-Statewide-Poll-Crosstabs-041618-mssen

[smoltchanov]

If CHS will be able to consolidate an establishment - she is a winner against any opponent. But - Republicans are also apt at defeating their best candidates in primary, and running O'Donnell-Angle-Mourdock garbage in general.

[Del Tachi]

Espy is getting 18% of white voters even vs CHS. Not bad, but he needs 22% minimum + huge black margins and turnout to even have a chance.

Where would most of this deviation from normal racial polarization be coming from against CHS? Would it be throughout the state, or concentrated in specific areas?

Probably a pattern pretty similar to what happened in AL-SEN, so I'd imagine we'd see Espy doing much better among White voters in Metro Jackson and the college towns. 

I don't think that's likely though.  A CHS vs. Espy runoff is pretty much Safe R, unless it turns out to be the 51st seat for Democrats and they're willing to drop millions of dollar into it at the last moment.

[GlobeSoc]

Espy is getting 18% of white voters even vs CHS. Not bad, but he needs 22% minimum + huge black margins and turnout to even have a chance.

Where would most of this deviation from normal racial polarization be coming from against CHS? Would it be throughout the state, or concentrated in specific areas?

Probably a pattern pretty similar to what happened in AL-SEN, so I'd imagine we'd see Espy doing much better among White voters in Metro Jackson and the college towns. 

I don't think that's likely though.  A CHS vs. Espy runoff is pretty much Safe R, unless it turns out to be the 51st seat for Democrats and they're willing to drop millions of dollar into it at the last moment.

I'd point out that he got 18% in this poll vs CHS, and 18% is 8% more than their usual 10%.

As for the geography of that 8%, I'd bet that it would be a mixture of that, rural Mississippi valley whites, with possibly a small sprinkle of North Mississippi whites. The smallest crossover probably comes from gulf coast whites. His swing vs CHS would be a bit more rural than vs McDaniel.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Interesting that the splits are so large. I expected Espy would be strong against CMD but not as strong as the poll suggests. The CHS poll is about where I'd expect.

Obama only lost MS by 11.5... I bet a black democrat in this 2018 environment only loses by 5-6 against CMD.

[Greedo punched first]

Democrat Tobey Bartee is in. Not a serious candidate. There are now 3 Democrats and 2 Republicans.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Ugh

[Greedo punched first]

McDaniel's fundraising numbers are in. I added this to Wikipedia.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I've gotta question:

Do primaries for senatorial and gubernatorial elections in Mississippi require a runoff in case of no majority?

[Greedo punched first]

I've gotta question:

Do primaries for senatorial and gubernatorial elections in Mississippi require a runoff in case of no majority?

Yes. Mississippi special elections, however, have jungle primaries that only go to a general election if nobody gets a majority in the primary.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

I've gotta question:

Do primaries for senatorial and gubernatorial elections in Mississippi require a runoff in case of no majority?

Yes. Mississippi special elections, however, have jungle primaries that only go to a general election if nobody gets a majority in the primary.

I actually find it very interesting that both a general election and a jungle primary will take place on the same day.

[7,052,770]

https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/25/document-democratic-candidate-howard-sherman-republican-california/552215002/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Democratic candidate (against Wicker, not the special) was registered as a Republican in California as late as 2016 and voted in the Republican primary. He donated $5,000 to Wicker in 2017.




https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/04/24/cindy-hyde-smith-fundraising-letter-false-claim-donald-trump-mike-pence-support/546733002/

Cindy Hyde-Smith hasn't gotten Trump or Pence's endorsement, but that hasn't stopped her from claiming she has in her campaign materials.