MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[adrac]

If the math works out just perfectly: D V D RUNOFF!!!

Presley 25%
Espy 20%
McDaniel 19%
Hyde 17%
Taggart 15%
Other 4%

I want to believe

[Greedo punched first]

I think the runoff will be R vs. R.

[Doimper]

I think the runoff will be R vs. R.

Unless more than two Democratic candidates get in, I doubt it. Democrats have a high floor in Mississippi.

[Greedo punched first]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

What? You do realize there's only one D and D's have a floor of 35% in Mississippi.

[YE]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

[Del Tachi]

Roflmao

Republican Andy Taggart eyeing challenge to Cindy Hyde-Smith for Cochran's Senate seat

So, so, so dumb. A rich #NeverTrump lawyer from Madison is going to draw away votes that CHS needs without hurting McDaniel much at all.

I guess he thinks there are a lot of voters out there who would conceivably vote for some establishment Republican hypothetically, but will default to McDaniel over CHS. He's probably right about that, but he's not exactly a good choice to win those people over.

His logic might work in a Republican primary where the top 2 Republicans go to a runoff for the nomination, but all he'll do in this race is guarantee that neither he nor CHS makes the runoff.

Taggart and Bryant have never been on the same team.  This is probably a move for Taggart to screw over Bryant’s legacy more than anything else.  I’d prefer Taggart to CHS and am becoming more likely to support him (or Espy, if he’s near 50%) on November 7.  

Harry, is Taggart more well known in Metro Jackson than CHS?  Do you think he could actually win pluralities there?

[Doimper]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

Hood's noises about running for governor in 2019 have been getting louder. I'd be shocked if he goes for this instead.

[Greedo punched first]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

More Democrats will get in. Nonpartisan pecial elections typically have low turnout.

[Del Tachi]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

More Democrats will get in. Nonpartisan special elections typically have low turnout.

It’s going to be concurrent with the midterms.  It’ll be regular midterm turnout, and Democrats will have a strong enthusiasm advantage. 

[Greedo punched first]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

More Democrats will get in. Nonpartisan special elections typically have low turnout.

It’s going to be concurrent with the midterms.  It’ll be regular midterm turnout. 

I forgot about that. There will probably be at least 2 Democrats running.

[YE]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

More Democrats will get in. Nonpartisan pecial elections typically have low turnout.

The MS Dem bench is so thin though.

[Greedo punched first]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

More Democrats will get in. Nonpartisan pecial elections typically have low turnout.

The MS Dem bench is so thin though.

Right. But I assume several no-name Democrats get in and possibly split the Democratic vote.

[Doimper]

I think the runoff will be Hyde-Smith vs. McDaniel.

So are black Democrats not gonna show up to vote in November? Espy doesn't seem to be seriously campaigning, so unless Presely and Hood both get in, unlikely.

More Democrats will get in. Nonpartisan pecial elections typically have low turnout.

The MS Dem bench is so thin though.

Right. But I assume several no-name Democrats get in and possibly split the Democratic vote.

It's a nonpartisan jungle primary. Some Dude Democrats are just as likely to attract the votes of uninformed Republicans.

[GlobeSoc]

Watch as some no name is on top of the ballot and gets 10% of the vote just on that lol

[Greedo punched first]

Who will McDaniel vote for in the Class 1 Senate GOP primary, Roger Wicker or Richard Boyanton?

[7,052,770]

Harry, is Taggart more well known in Metro Jackson than CHS?  Do you think he could actually win pluralities there?

It's hard for me to judge since I went to high school with his sons and have read his books, so I am super familiar with him. My assumption is that people who pay attention to politics know who he is - he often appears on local news TV to discuss political stories. Apparently he was also a county supervisor last decade, something I had absolutely no memory of.

I would guess he's probably a little more familiar than CHS to the average person the Jackson suburbs, but I would think most people who follow politics know who both he and CHS are, and most people who don't have probably never heard of either.

I realize I just typed a long non-answer, so I guess I'll just say I think Taggart would be the top vote-getting Republican in Madison County, do OK in Rankin and Hinds, and not get many votes anywhere else unless he can totally marginalize CHS and become the de facto Establishment Republican candidate.

[7,052,770]

Oh, and here's an interesting article from a few months ago -- Taggart supports changing the state flag (!): http://blogs.jacksonfreepress.com/post/2017/09/09/andy-taggart-prominent-mississippi-republican-sticking-toe-into-racial-healing-flag-debate/ While that may appeal to non-native Mississippians in Madison and the college towns, he's not going to be flipping any rural McDaniel voters at all.

[7,052,770]

https://twitter.com/Andy_Taggart/status/788548656731389953

[7,052,770]

The day of the Charlottesville rally:

https://twitter.com/Andy_Taggart/status/896501904771043328

[YE]

Taggart seems like a solid FF as far as MS GOP's go but this won't play well with MS Republicans. I wonder if he'd endorse Presley in a Presley vs McDaniel race. 

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Taggart seems like a solid FF as far as MS GOP's go but this won't play well with MS Republicans. I wonder if he'd endorse Presley in a Presley vs McDaniel race. 

[7,052,770]

Taggart seems like a solid FF as far as MS GOP's go but this won't play well with MS Republicans. I wonder if he'd endorse Presley in a Presley vs McDaniel race. 

Probably not, but I bet he'd just refuse an endorsement altogether.

[Del Tachi]

Cochran’s farewell address delivered before the Senate.  He’s unable to finish it, and has the reminder of his remarks submitted for the record

Such a true statesman and FF.  You will be greatly missed.  It’s truly the end of an era - Cochran will be the last of the “New South” Republicans swept into the Senate in 1978 and 1980.

[smoltchanov]

The “inelasticity” (what a terrible and overused term, btw) of White voters in the Deep South is greatly exaggerated on this forum. Presley and Hood could certainly win a Senate race here, especially in a blue wave year and against someone like McDaniel. Espy as well, though his ceiling is lower.

Please remind me a percentage of white Mississippi voters, who voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012 and Hillary in 2016. Yes, a white socially conservative candidate will get substantially more votes from them, but even that difference gradually shrinks..