MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Del Tachi]

Mamacita's running.

He'll probably win. Adultery is no longer a sin in the eyes of the "values voters."

\

Doubtful.  Wicker has a lot more organization/money than Thad did at the same point in 2014.  Plus, McDaniel is old news and has pretty high unfavorables.  I think Wicker will wipe the floor, somewhere around 60% in the primary. 

But Wicker won't have thousands of Democrats voting for Gene Taylor in the CD4 Republican primary also voting for him like Thad had.

And the stupid flag issue really fires up the deplorables.

Hmm, not sure how much of an advantage that is considering that Thad actually lost the primary where all of those "Democrats" were voting for Taylor and then won the runoff three weeks later.

The way I see it, Wicker has (almost) all of the institutional advantages that Thad had in 2014 while being a more polished, media-friendly, campaign-ready operation.  The 3rd district GOP primary should boost turnout in Metro Jackson/Starkville relative to other parts of the state (good for Wicker), Wicker has a stronger regional base than Cochran did in 2014 (Wicker should do good in Tupelo/Oxford), and Wicker's SASC membership makes him a good fit for military voters on the Gulf Coast.

I think more polling will do a good job of framing the contest, but I'm rating this as Likely Wicker for now.

[Holmes]

Is this thread for this year's MS Senate election too?

David Baria is in for Democrats. Could be good insurance if McDaniels pulls through and screws over Republicans.

[7,052,770]

Is this thread for this year's MS Senate election too?

David Baria is in for Democrats. Could be good insurance if McDaniels pulls through and screws over Republicans.

That's someone who could plausibly beat McDaniel, if his scandals take center stage and people care. Very Doug Jones-esque

[GeorgiaModerate]

A funny thought: perhaps enough Democrats might cross over to vote for McDaniel in order to have a weaker Republican in November.  This would be a counterpoint to the 2014 election, when he claimed that Democrats crossing over were the cause of his primary defeat.  (http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2014/aug/20/mississippi-primaries-open-or-not/)

[OneJ]

Meanwhile, yet unsurprisingly...

Trump backs Wicker for Senate

[smoltchanov]

A funny thought: perhaps enough Democrats might cross over to vote for McDaniel in order to have a weaker Republican in November.  This would be a counterpoint to the 2014 election, when he claimed that Democrats crossing over were the cause of his primary defeat.  (http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2014/aug/20/mississippi-primaries-open-or-not/)

Too risky. Mississippi is conservative enough to elect McDaniel in such case......

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

A funny thought: perhaps enough Democrats might cross over to vote for McDaniel in order to have a weaker Republican in November.  This would be a counterpoint to the 2014 election, when he claimed that Democrats crossing over were the cause of his primary defeat.  (http://www.jacksonfreepress.com/news/2014/aug/20/mississippi-primaries-open-or-not/)

An aside, but doing this to either party is really, really awful for civic health.

I hope people learn from Clinton's mistake and stop assuming they can just beat the worst of the other party.

This

[Del Tachi]

Senator Wicker following the Luther Strange strategy.

Also, can we change the name of this thread?  Something like "MS 2018 Megathread" would be more appropriate seeing as we have this race, the MS-03 GOP primary and a potential Cochran retirement to all consider.

[OneJ]

Senator Wicker following the Luther Strange strategy.

Also, can we change the name of this thread?  Something like "MS 2018 Megathread" would be more appropriate seeing as we have this race, the MS-03 GOP primary and a potential Cochran retirement to all consider.

I agree.

[Dr. MB]

Could a runoff happen? I expect this election to be close, and there is one other candidate, Richard Boyanton – in 2014 Thomas Carey got only 1.5% but barely enough to deny either Cochran or McDaniel an outright victory.

[Ye We Can]

Senator Wicker following the Luther Strange strategy.

Also, can we change the name of this thread?  Something like "MS 2018 Megathread" would be more appropriate seeing as we have this race, the MS-03 GOP primary and a potential Cochran retirement to all consider.
[/quote

Wtf I like McDaniel now

[Vega]

How likely is it that Cochran actually retires?

[smoltchanov]

Well, Evans is in for MS-03 according to www.ourcampaigns.com. The best possible candidate for Democrats in this district, but - still underdog (and a conservative on Bobby Bright level to boot).

[Young Conservative]

What scandals does Mcdaniels have?

[GeorgiaModerate]

What scandals does Mcdaniels have?

There was this one from the 2014 race: https://www.npr.org/2014/05/30/317362310/in-mississippi-a-senate-race-derailed-by-a-bloggers-photos

[Note: It's McDaniel (no "s" on the end).]

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm rooting for McDaniel. It can only end well. If he wins, according to this site (https://www.realchrismcdaniel.com), he'll be a check on DJT's administration in the way Flake has been. If he loses, another Deep South Dem seat.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm rooting for McDaniel. It can only end well. If he wins, according to this site (https://www.realchrismcdaniel.com), he'll be a check on DJT's administration in the way Flake has been. If he loses, another Deep South Dem seat.

Since when has Senator Flake been a check on Trump?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

I'm rooting for McDaniel. It can only end well. If he wins, according to this site (https://www.realchrismcdaniel.com), he'll be a check on DJT's administration in the way Flake has been. If he loses, another Deep South Dem seat.

Since when has Senator Flake been a check on Trump?

It can be argued that the Arizona GOP senators/Kasich provided a space for normally scared Dems to be more vocal in their opposition to DJT.

[UWS]

I think Wicker will have the advantage over McDaniel since he's endorsed by Donald Trump who has similar views with McDaniel.

[Frodo]

I think Wicker will have the advantage over McDaniel since he's endorsed by Donald Trump who has similar views with McDaniel.

Luther Strange thought the same thing when Roy Moore ran against him.  And unlike Roy, Chris doesn't (to our knowledge) have any skeletons in his closet as far as underaged girls are concerned. 

[Ye We Can]

I think Wicker will have the advantage over McDaniel since he's endorsed by Donald Trump who has similar views with McDaniel.

Luther Strange thought the same thing when Roy Moore ran against him.  And unlike Roy, Chris doesn't (to our knowledge) have any skeletons in his closet as far as underaged girls are concerned. 

Just 18+ most likely

I mean 18+ who cares anymore

It be cool to have a Dem senator from MS so I hope Baria somehow wins

[Doimper]

I think Wicker will have the advantage over McDaniel since he's endorsed by Donald Trump who has similar views with McDaniel.

Luther Strange thought the same thing when Roy Moore ran against him.  And unlike Roy, Chris doesn't (to our knowledge) have any skeletons in his closet as far as underaged girls are concerned. 

Just 18+ most likely

I mean 18+ who cares anymore

It be cool to have a Dem senator from MS so I hope Baria somehow wins

Baria is tsunami/black swan event insurance, but so was Jones.

[Unironic Kamala Harris for President Supporter]

I'm rooting for McDaniel. It can only end well. If he wins, according to this site (https://www.realchrismcdaniel.com), he'll be a check on DJT's administration in the way Flake has been. If he loses, another Deep South Dem seat.

Since when has Senator Flake been a check on Trump?

It can be argued that the Arizona GOP senators/Kasich provided a space for normally scared Dems to be more vocal in their opposition to DJT.

But not an actual check on his power.

[Skill and Chance]

How does MS special election law work?  For Cochran's seat, the best case scenario for the MS GOP is likely to have Cochran hold out until 2020 to retire and then have the open seat race with Trump at the top of the ballot.  The worst case scenario would seem to be a special sometime in 2019/20 where the open senate seat is the only thing on the ballot and McDaniel runs.  Given that there is a statewide GE every year in MS, would the MS GOP prefer to have the extra senate seat on the ballot in Nov 2018 or have it coincide with the Gov and state legislative races in 2019?

[Rhenna]

How does MS special election law work?  For Cochran's seat, the best case scenario for the MS GOP is likely to have Cochran hold out until 2020 to retire and then have the open seat race with Trump at the top of the ballot.  The worst case scenario would seem to be a special sometime in 2019/20 where the open senate seat is the only thing on the ballot and McDaniel runs.  Given that there is a statewide GE every year in MS, would the MS GOP prefer to have the extra senate seat on the ballot in Nov 2018 or have it coincide with the Gov and state legislative races in 2019?

If I were the MS GOP, I would prefer it be in 2019 so the race would share the ballot with the MS GOV race.