MS Megathread: Hyde-Smith wins by 8

[Landslide Lyndon]

Hasn't Hosemann declared privately that he wants to run for LG?

[Del Tachi]

Hasn't Hosemann declared privately that he wants to run for LG?

That was before Thad's seat opened up, of course.  Hosemann also was planning on running for Senate in 2014 had Cochran retired then.  Last week when asked about his future plans, he didn't explicitly rule out running for Cochran's seat.

[Del Tachi]

I agree that Hosemann is the stronger candidate in both the primary and the GE. Tilt/Lean R if he beats McDaniel.

Safe R if its Hosemann vs. Espy

Likely R if McDaniel vs. Espy or Hosemann vs. Presley

Lean R if its McDaniel vs. Presley

A McDaniel vs Hosemann runoff is the hardest to handicap, but is probably Lean/Likely Hosemann.

[gerritcole]

wouldn't mcdaniel just campaign that hosemann is too old like w/cochran, may work this time. hyde-smith could build seniority

[7,052,770]

It's pretty unlikely that we see an R vs R runoff, assuming Democrats don't have more than 2 "major" candidates. I mean, I guess it would be 27-27-23-23 or something, but that would have to line up exactly right.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

I agree that Hosemann is the stronger candidate in both the primary and the GE. Tilt/Lean R if he beats McDaniel.

Safe R if its Hosemann vs. Espy

Likely R if McDaniel vs. Espy or Hosemann vs. Presley

Lean R if its McDaniel vs. Presley

A McDaniel vs Hosemann runoff is the hardest to handicap, but is probably Lean/Likely Hosemann.

Presley is leading McDaniel in a runoff.

[The Other Castro]

Welp, looks like it's Cindy Hyde-Smith.

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/665443?unlock=E1522ZS6XHETSKT1

[7,052,770]

Welp, looks like it's Cindy Hyde-Smith.

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/665443?unlock=E1522ZS6XHETSKT1

Likely R -> Lean R

[Alabama_Indy10]

Welp, looks like it's Cindy Hyde-Smith.

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/665443?unlock=E1522ZS6XHETSKT1

Hmm.. I would think she's the weaker of the 2

[Roronoa D. Law]

How long until MS GOP starting asking Black voters to save them from McDaniel again?

[NewYorkExpress]

Still Likely R (and that's only because Espy is the most credible candidate Democrats have had since Ronnie Musgrove).

The race against Wicker meanwhile, is now Safe R...unless Hood or Baria jumps in...and even then it would be a very strong Likely R (for Baria) or Lean R (for Hood).

[7,052,770]

And Mississippi Dems have to incentive to bail out Republicans this time by voting for Hyde-Smith.

McDaniel is personally viler than Trump and politically viler than Cruz. In the super unlikely R-R runoff scenario, McDaniel gets destroyed.

[morgieb]

Welp, looks like it's Cindy Hyde-Smith.

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https://www.nationaljournal.com/s/665443?unlock=E1522ZS6XHETSKT1

Probably would be easier for McDaniel to beat than say Hosemann...so my opinion of this will depend on if Presley gets in or not.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Phil Bryant is going to appoint a former democrat?

Seems like an easy person to attack for McDaniels

[Landslide Lyndon]

Mississippi never elected a woman neither for congress, nor for governor.
Let's keep that in mind.

[OneJ]

Still Likely R (and that's only because Espy is the most credible candidate Democrats have had since Ronnie Musgrove).

The race against Wicker meanwhile, is now Safe R...unless Hood or Baria jumps in...and even then it would be a very strong Likely R (for Baria) or Lean R (for Hood).

The deadline for Wicker's seat has already passed and Baria has already declared running against Wicker. It's pretty much all about the special now.

Phil Bryant is going to appoint a former democrat?

Seems like an easy person to attack for McDaniels

In addition to this, she switched pretty late. Most former Democrats switched during the '90s and '00s.

[Del Tachi]

The CHS pick is not one that I would have made.  I don't see how she's somebody that the vast majority of MS Republicans will be able to get behind, Bryant et. al will have to go very, very negative on McDaniel to win.  I think, in the end, Hosemann must not have wanted it.   

[7,052,770]

Andy Taggart openly hinting on Twitter that he's going to jump in.

3 legitimate Republicans puts a D-D runoff in plausible territory. If we get a 4th, it becomes ... likely?

[BundouYMB]

Andy Taggart openly hinting on Twitter that he's going to jump in.

3 legitimate Republicans puts a D-D runoff in plausible territory. If we get a 4th, it becomes ... likely?

No, no it does not. Democrats have gotten an average of something like 35% of the vote in recent statewide elections. Even if the 2 Democrats and 3 Republicans split the vote perfectly (which is EXTREMELY unlikely) the Republicans would each get around 22% and the Democrats would get around 17.5%. And the far more likely scenario is that the appointed Senator + McDaniels vacuum up the vast majority of the Republican vote, which makes D vs. D virtually inconceivable no matter how many Republicans run.

A second credible Democrat getting in would make an R v. R matchup waaaaaaaaaaaay more likely than a D vs. D matchup.

[KingSweden]

What happened to Stacy Pickering, anyways?

[7,052,770]

Andy Taggart openly hinting on Twitter that he's going to jump in.

3 legitimate Republicans puts a D-D runoff in plausible territory. If we get a 4th, it becomes ... likely?

No, no it does not. Democrats have gotten an average of something like 35% of the vote in recent statewide elections. Even if the 2 Democrats and 3 Republicans split the vote perfectly (which is EXTREMELY unlikely) the Republicans would each get around 22% and the Democrats would get around 17.5%. And the far more likely scenario is that the appointed Senator + McDaniels vacuum up the vast majority of the Republican vote, which makes D vs. D virtually inconceivable no matter how many Republicans run.

A second credible Democrat getting in would make an R v. R matchup waaaaaaaaaaaay more likely than a D vs. D matchup.

35% is a particularly bad performance for a Democrat in Mississippi, not a baseline. 35% is what the random no-name no-money black candidates who sometimes win the nomination because no one else runs get.

Presley and Espy would easily combine into the mid 40s, not the mid 30s.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

Cindy Hyde-Smith's appointment is official:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/976094599793053696

[Doimper]

Cindy Hyde-Smith's appointment is official:

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/976094599793053696

Seems like the perfect opponent from McDaniel's perspective.

[smoltchanov]

CHS had solid conservative record in Misssissippi legislature. More conservative then some "lifetime" Republicans. I can easily imagine her supporting McCain in general, but can't - neither Obama, nor Clinton (in primaries, as well as in general)..

[YE]

Is CHS a former Democrat or something?

Brandon Presely or Jim Hood need to get off their ass and run.