Kansas and Missouri

[SingingAnalyst]

I was almost going to post this under Interesting Factoids, but I thought it deserved a thread of its own:

In 2020, MO voted to the right of KS for the first time since 1916. Only fractionally, yes, but indeed so.

Can we expect MO to vote right of KS in the future? 2024, anyway? The trend since 1996 would suggest so. And would Josh Hawley being on the ticket affect this?

[blacknwhiterose]

I was gonna ask this question myself.  MO and KS are culturally similar, but was still surprised by this result as MO has the larger urban mass of Kansas City plus St. Louis.  Rural Missouri, especially in the south/ozarks, has become very deep red, while Dems seem to have found some new votes in the Lawrence-Overland Park-Topeka corridor.  Missouri has a more varied history of voting and could vote to the right, or tack back left of Kansas, but the 2 will probably stay close for the foreseeable future. 

[DINGO Joe]

Kansas is a little more college educated 33 to 29% I guess that's the difference these days

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Thoughts from another thread

With urban-rural/density polarization this makes sense. KS has very sparse rurals (especially as you get further west) due to aridity while MO like much of the upper south/midwest has a fairly large rural population. Before suburban KS voted red and parts of rural MO were somewhat blue. Now they're following national trends.




(sources: wikicommons/wikimedia)

Also worth noting is that the third largest metro in MO (Springfield in the SW corner) is very heavily evangelical and deviates from the pattern of cities voting D. It may slowly be shifting (Galloway won it in 2018) but it's still redder than metro areas of comparable size in other states.

[RBH]

Wilson won a higher percentage in MO than in KS in 1916 while having a higher margin of victory in KS than MO because the Socialist candidate won 3.9% instead of 1.9% and the Prohibition candidate was at 2.05% instead of 0.5%

Dem percentages in MO and KS

2020: 41.4% MO, 41.6 KS (-0.2)
2016: 37.9% MO, 35.7 KS (2.2)
2012: 44.3% MO, 38 KS (6.3)
2008: 49.2% MO, 41.55 KS (7.65)
2004: 46.1% MO, 36.6 KS (9.5)
2000: 47.1% MO, 37.2 KS (9.9)
1996: 47.5% MO, 36.1 KS (11.4)
1992: 44.1% MO, 33.7 KS (10.4)
1988: 47.85% MO, 42.6 KS (5.25)
1984: 40% MO, 32.6 KS (7.4)
1980: 44.35% MO, 33.3 KS (11.05)
1976: 51.1% MO, 44.9 KS (6.2)
1972: 37.7% MO, 29.5 KS (8.2)
1968: 43.7% MO, 34.7 KS (9)
1964: 64.05% MO, 54.1 KS (9.95)
1960: 50.3% MO, 39.1 KS (11.2)
1956: 50.1% MO, 34.2 KS (15.9)
1952: 49.1% MO, 30.5 KS (18.6)
1948: 58.1% MO, 44.6 KS (13.5)
1944: 51.4% MO, 39.2 KS (12.2)
1940: 52.3% MO, 42.4 KS (9.9)
1936: 60.8% MO, 53.7 KS (7.1)
1932: 63.7% MO, 53.6 KS (11.1)
1928: 44.15% MO, 27.1 KS (17.05)
1924: 43.8% MO, 23.6 KS (20.2)
1920: 43.1% MO, 32.2 KS (10.9)
1916: 50.6% MO, 49.95 KS (0.75)

So, Republicans nominating KS natives widened the KS/MO gap in 52/56/96.

KS went from 53.6-44.1 in 1932 to 53.7-45.95 in 1936 with the incumbent KS Governor on the R ticket.

As for right now.. the 15 counties casting the most votes in MO (let's count STL City as a county here) cast 68% of the MO vote, and Biden won those counties 51-47. The other 100 counties (casting 32%) went 76-22 for Trump.

The 15/100 splits for other recent statewide races in MO

2020 Gov: Galloway 50/48 in the 15, Parson 76/22 in the 100 (overall 57-41 R)
2020 SoS: Ashcroft 52/45, Ashcroft 79/18 (overall 61-36 R)
2018 Sen: McCaskill 54/44, Hawley 68/28 (overall 51-46 R)
2018 Aud: Galloway 58/38, McDowell 60/35 (overall 50-46 D)
2016 Pres: Trump 48/46, Trump 74/21 (overall 57-38 R)
2016 Sen: Kander 53/43, Blunt 62/33 (overall 49-46 R)
2012 Pres: Obama 50/48, Romney 66/32 (overall 54-44 R)
2012 Sen: McCaskill 59/35, Akin 48/45 (overall 55-39 D)

The 15 counties casting the most votes in 2020 were St. Louis, Jackson, St. Charles, Greene, StL City, Clay, Jefferson, Boone, Cass, Platte, Franklin, Jasper, Christian, Cape Girardeau. We'll see when the 2020 Census totals come out if those are the top 15 or not.

This might not be a common conclusion for a result that was a 15% margin but the path is there and it involves improving not just in the largest counties but places like the Springfields, Jeff Citys, Joplins and Cape Girardeaus. Biden/Galloway were around 2012 Obama numbers in the largest counties. Yinka Faleti vs John Ashcroft for Sec of State was the worst Dem performance and included for the purposes of figuring out if there is a ceiling for Rs in the smallest 1/3rd of the state.

Dems probably have to get their % over 55% in the largest counties to have a reasonable statewide shot, which means trudging through typically Republican suburbs and smaller towns instead of trudging through 100 other counties where Rs could be getting over 70-75% just because they exist.

It's no slam dunk, but it could work given some time.

Another thing i'll be interested to see play out is what does a Biden admin era election result look like post COVID. It'll take some time to figure out what parts of the 2020 result really were a thing involving backlashes to either side or the effect of Dems not having any presence in some areas. The turnout in rural areas of MO was higher than any 21st century election while turnout in the KC/STL counties was lower than 2008. So idk where turnout for a 2024.

As for KS's trajectory. Depends on how much of the Johnson County swing stays Dem over the next few years. It's not impossible for the 2024 Dem nominee (Biden or Harris) to end up at like 42% in MO and 41% in KS just because voters are being voters. Although that also depends on if the 2024 R nominee is Trump or not.