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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, ON Progressive)
  Fusion states
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Author Topic: Fusion states  (Read 777 times)
bagelman
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« on: October 21, 2017, 11:22:59 pm »
« edited: October 22, 2017, 03:37:23 pm by bagelman »

Fusion states are not states combined together, they are states averaged together. As such if a strongly partisan state is fused with a swing state like mine, the result is that election result mirror the partisan state.

For example, the fusion of Alaska and Ohio only voted Dem once for the Lyndon Landslide.

1960: 52-48 R
64: 64-36 D
68: 45-43 R
72: 59-36 R
76: 53-42 R
80: 53-34 R

84: 63-35 R
88: 57-40 R
92: 39-35 R
96: 46-40 R
00: 54-37 R
04: 56-42 R
08: 53-45 R
12: 51-46 R
16: 51-40 R


This state would be located in the mountains but also have some riverside industrial population centers.

Alaska and Hawaii is a tempting fusion pair. It creates a temperate island state in the Pacific (I'd love to live there!), and gives the following electoral results:

1960: 50-50 R
64: 72-28 D
68: 51-42 D
72: 60-36 R
76: 53-43 R
80: 49-36 R
84: 61-37 R
88: 52-45 R
92: 39-38 D
96: 45-41 D
00: 48-42 R
04: 53-45 R
08: 55-43 D
12: 56-41 D

16: 49-41 D

There are 1225 fusion pairs for US states, per the equation (X) − X where X=50. There are 1275 if DC is included.
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Peebs
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« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2017, 11:15:48 am »

I did Texas and Pennsylvania a while back, although that was combining Texylvania, rather than averaging them. Not too interesting, single-digit R wins since 2008, double digits in 2000 and 2004, last Dem victory in 1996 (okay, that surprised me a little. I was expecting 1992).
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bagelman
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Posts: 5,106
United States


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E: -2.58, S: -2.43

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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2017, 12:44:23 pm »

Here's my attempt at making the fusion state of Texylvania:

1872: 51-47 R
76: 59-40 D
80: 56-37 D
84: 56-41 D
88: 55-39 D
92: 51-35 D
96: 52-46 D

1900: 50-46 D
04: 49-45 D

08: 55-41 D
12: 53-23-16 D (P>R)
16: 59-36 D

20: 45-43 R
24: 46-43 D
28: 59-41 R
32: 67-31 D
36: 72-27 D
40: 67-33 D
44: 61-33 D

48: 56-38 D
52: 53-47 R
56: 56-44 R

60: 51-49 D
64: 64-36 D
68: 44-42 D
72: 63-36 R
76: 51-48 D
80: 52-42 R
84: 58-41 R
88: 53-46 R

92: 41-38 D
96: 47-44 D

2000: 53-44 R
04: 55-45 R

08: 50-49 R
12: 52-47 R
16: 50-45 R


1900 and 2008 are both rounded up 49.5%+ for the winning party. This state voted for the winner from 1928-1964 and again from 1972-2004.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #3 on: October 22, 2017, 08:53:13 pm »

West Vermontia
1960: 53R-47D
1964: 33R-66D
1968: 47R-47D (barely R win)
1972: 63R-36D
1976: 48R-51D
1980: 45R-44D
1984: 57R-43D
1988: 49R-50D
1992: 33R-47D
1996: 34R-52D
2000: 46R-48D
2004: 47R-51D
2008: 43R-55D
2012: 47R-51D
2016: 49R-42D
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bagelman
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E: -2.58, S: -2.43

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« Reply #4 on: October 22, 2017, 09:54:52 pm »
« Edited: October 23, 2017, 07:46:49 pm by bagelman »

Texafornia

1856: 57-33 D
1860: 52-16-16-16 South D (R narrowly in last place)
1872: 50-49 D (round up)
76: 60-40 D (round up)
80: 57-36 D
84: 57-40 D
88: 56-37 D
92: 50-32 D
96: 58-40 D
1900: 52-43 D
04: 49-42 D
08: 53-39 D
12: 57-25-12-5 D (P>Soc>R)
16: 62-32 D
20: 45-42 R
24: 41-38 D
28: 58-41 R
32: 73-24 D
36: 77-22 D
40: 69-30 D
44: 64-30 D
48: 57-36 D
52: 55-44 R
56: 55-44 R
60: 50-49 D
64: 61-39 D
68: 44-43 R
72: 61-37 R
76: 49-49 D
80: 54-39 R
84: 61-39 R
88: 54-45 R
92: 42-37 D
96: 47-43 D
2K: 50-46 R
04: 53-46 R
08: 52-46 D
12: 51-47 D
16: 52-42 D


This former solid south state voted for the election winner every year from 1928-2012.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: October 23, 2017, 02:37:46 pm »

Can someone do Illiana and Ohiana?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #6 on: October 23, 2017, 03:34:11 pm »

How about Orefornia?
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bagelman
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« Reply #7 on: October 23, 2017, 08:19:23 pm »


Ohiana:

1856: 47-44 D
60: 51-43 R
64: 56-45 R
68: 53-47 R
72: 53-43 R
76: 48.86-48.8 D
80: 51-47 R
84: 50-48 R (round up)
88: 49-48 R
92: 48-47 D
96: 51-48 R
1900: 51-46 R
04: 57-37 R
08: 50-46 R (round up)
12: 42-25-23 D (R>P)
16: 49-47 D
20: 57-40 R
24: 57-31 R
28: 62-37 R
32: 52-45 D
36: 57-40 D
40: 51-49 D
44: 51-48 R
48: 49.41-49.13 R
52: 57-42 R
56: 61-39 R
60: 54-46 R
64: 59-40 D
68: 48-40 R
72: 63-36 R
76: 51-47 R
80: 54-39 R
84: 60-39 R
88: 57-42 R
92: 41-38 R
96: 44.47-44.08 D
00: 53-44 R
04: 55-44 R
08: 51-48 D
12: 51-47 R
16: 54-40 R

Illiana

1856: 47-40 D
60: 51-45 R
64: 54-46 R
68: 54-46 R
72: 55-45 R
76: 49-48 R
80: 50-46 R
84: 49-48 R
88: 49-48 R
92: 48-46 D
96: 53-45 R
1900: 52-46 R
04: 56-35 R
08: 51-43 R
12: 39-29-23 D (P>R)
16: 50-45 R
20: 61-33 R
24: 57-31 R
28: 58-41 R
32: 55-42 D
36: 57-41 D
40: 50-49.5 D
44: 50-49 R
48: 49.43-49.4 D
52: 56-43 R
56: 60-40 R (round up)
60: 52-47 R
64: 58-42 D
68: 49-41 R
72: 63-37 R
76: 52-47 R
80: 53-40 R
84: 59-40 R
88: 55-44 R
92: 43-39 D
96: 48-42 D
00: 50-48 R (round up)
04: 52-47 R
08: 56-43 D
12: 51-47 D
16: 47-46 R

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bagelman
Concerned Citizen
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Posts: 5,106
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -2.43

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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2017, 08:52:35 pm »

Alaska and Rhode Island fused

1960: 56-43 D
64: 73-27 D
68: 35-39 D
72: 56-41 R
76: 51-46 R
80: 46-37 R
84: 59-39 R
88: 52-46 R
92: 39-34 D
96: 46-39 D
2000: 45-44 R
04: 49.87-47 R
08: 50-47 D
12: 52-45 D
16: 45.48-45.09 D
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2017, 10:14:28 pm »


Ohiana:

1856: 47-44 D
60: 51-43 R
64: 56-45 R
68: 53-47 R
72: 53-43 R
76: 48.86-48.8 D
80: 51-47 R
84: 50-48 R (round up)
88: 49-48 R
92: 48-47 D
96: 51-48 R
1900: 51-46 R
04: 57-37 R
08: 50-46 R (round up)
12: 42-25-23 D (R>P)
16: 49-47 D
20: 57-40 R
24: 57-31 R
28: 62-37 R
32: 52-45 D
36: 57-40 D
40: 51-49 D
44: 51-48 R
48: 49.41-49.13 R
52: 57-42 R
56: 61-39 R
60: 54-46 R
64: 59-40 D
68: 48-40 R
72: 63-36 R
76: 51-47 R
80: 54-39 R
84: 60-39 R
88: 57-42 R
92: 41-38 R
96: 44.47-44.08 D
00: 53-44 R
04: 55-44 R
08: 51-48 D
12: 51-47 R
16: 54-40 R

Illiana

1856: 47-40 D
60: 51-45 R
64: 54-46 R
68: 54-46 R
72: 55-45 R
76: 49-48 R
80: 50-46 R
84: 49-48 R
88: 49-48 R
92: 48-46 D
96: 53-45 R
1900: 52-46 R
04: 56-35 R
08: 51-43 R
12: 39-29-23 D (P>R)
16: 50-45 R
20: 61-33 R
24: 57-31 R
28: 58-41 R
32: 55-42 D
36: 57-41 D
40: 50-49.5 D
44: 50-49 R
48: 49.43-49.4 D
52: 56-43 R
56: 60-40 R (round up)
60: 52-47 R
64: 58-42 D
68: 49-41 R
72: 63-37 R
76: 52-47 R
80: 53-40 R
84: 59-40 R
88: 55-44 R
92: 43-39 D
96: 48-42 D
00: 50-48 R (round up)
04: 52-47 R
08: 56-43 D
12: 51-47 D
16: 47-46 R


Thank you.  That's awesome!

Think you can do Kentuckiana and Michiana?  To ease your burden a bit, you can start with the first post-war election.  You don't have to go all the way back to the 1800s.
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