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December 05, 2020, 06:36:03 AM
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  2018 Senatorial Election Polls (Moderator: Brittain33)
  MO-Remington: Hawley +3
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Author Topic: MO-Remington: Hawley +3  (Read 2943 times)
Pollster
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« on: October 19, 2017, 12:02:37 PM »

Hawley 48
McCaskill 45

https://www.scribd.com/document/362045635/MO-Sen-Remington-Research-for-Missouri-Scout-Oct-2017
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: October 19, 2017, 12:12:26 PM »

Hawley up 51/43 with women and McCaskill up 47/44 with men? Wow, that means there’s a really high ceiling for C-Mac. Excellent poll!
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #2 on: October 19, 2017, 12:14:23 PM »

Hawley up 51/43 with women and McCaskill up 47/44 with men? Wow, that means there’s a really high ceiling for C-Mac. Excellent poll!
It has to be a typo.
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Jeppe
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2017, 12:17:44 PM »

Remington is a Republican pollster, right? Seems consistent so far with a tiny Hawley lead, but McCaskill seems to have a lot of crossover support, so the race is still competitive.
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Lincoln Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #4 on: October 19, 2017, 12:22:22 PM »

McCaskill has the votes to get within Single digits, that's clear. She just doesn't have the votes to win. If the polls next summer are still showing her within striking distance (or leading), we can talk. Still Likely R for now.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #5 on: October 19, 2017, 12:38:18 PM »

Pfffff McCaskill has plenty of time. Yes she's not in the most ideal of positions, but she's the incumbent from the opposition party running in a midterm with likely very bad approvals for the ruling party. It won't be easy, but she can win. I'm probably keeping this at toss-up for the next half year or so.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #6 on: October 19, 2017, 01:04:20 PM »

Great poll!
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: October 19, 2017, 02:41:47 PM »

Hawley is favored, but he can't exactly rest on his laurels. McCaskill's numbers are going to be buoyed by anti-Trump sentiment (he has an even approval rating in the state), so a Blanching isn't in the cards. It may have been if Hillary was president.
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Cactus Jack
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« Reply #8 on: October 19, 2017, 03:20:55 PM »

Hawley is favored, but he can't exactly rest on his laurels. McCaskill's numbers are going to be buoyed by anti-Trump sentiment (he has an even approval rating in the state), so a Blanching isn't in the cards. It may have been if Hillary was president.

Add in that Hawley's bounce to the Senate race can be generously taken as being breathtakingly opportunistic and that he's exactly the sort of Missouri politico likely to have an Akin Moment.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: October 19, 2017, 04:37:03 PM »

Akin was leading by far more than this. Hawley is weak.
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Kamala
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« Reply #10 on: October 19, 2017, 05:30:50 PM »

Can someone tell me why Hawley is considered attractive? Like I get he's not like an 80 year old man, but that doesn't automatically make him attractive.
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Lach
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« Reply #11 on: October 19, 2017, 05:42:31 PM »

Pfffff McCaskill has plenty of time. Yes she's not in the most ideal of positions, but she's the incumbent from the opposition party running in a midterm with likely very bad approvals for the ruling party. It won't be easy, but she can win. I'm probably keeping this at toss-up for the next half year or so.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: October 19, 2017, 05:57:35 PM »

Can someone tell me why Hawley is considered attractive? Like I get he's not like an 80 year old man, but that doesn't automatically make him attractive.

He looks pretty attractive to me, particularly by politician standards.

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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #13 on: October 19, 2017, 05:58:09 PM »

Not bad, we are still competitive, if we can keep our sh!t together, we might be able to stave off Hawley. Tilt R for now.
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Kamala
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« Reply #14 on: October 19, 2017, 06:00:16 PM »

Can someone tell me why Hawley is considered attractive? Like I get he's not like an 80 year old man, but that doesn't automatically make him attractive.

He looks pretty attractive to me, particularly by politician standards.



I guess, yes, from a distance, he is vaguely attractive (?)
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#gravelgang #lessiglad
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« Reply #15 on: October 19, 2017, 06:15:49 PM »

^ OT, but in that pic, Hawley looks vaguely like Dennis Reynolds from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia
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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: October 19, 2017, 06:52:54 PM »

McCaskill will win.
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jimmie
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« Reply #17 on: October 19, 2017, 07:07:23 PM »

Remember...

Hawley has yet to be able to lead by more than five points against this lady

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#PACK THE COURTS
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« Reply #18 on: October 19, 2017, 07:35:54 PM »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_MO_1104.pdf

Polling very much underestimated McCaskills margin over Akin, while getting margins and winners for all the other races almost perfectly.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #19 on: October 19, 2017, 07:49:35 PM »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/PPP_Release_MO_1104.pdf

Polling very much underestimated McCaskills margin over Akin, while getting margins and winners for all the other races almost perfectly.

Well there was an underlying reason for that fundamentally.


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The Arizonan
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« Reply #20 on: October 19, 2017, 07:55:23 PM »

Can someone tell me why Hawley is considered attractive? Like I get he's not like an 80 year old man, but that doesn't automatically make him attractive.

Because the Republican elite mindset generally goes like this:

"Lookie here {gestures to Paul Ryan}! We got a youngin'! Maybe he'll help solve our young people problem!" {puts him on national ticket}

Same thing with the flirtations with Ben Carson, Herman Cain, Rubio and Cruz, thinking they would help the GOP appeal to those certain demographics by trotting out someone who checks the boxes.

Doesn't the Democratic Party also do this to some extent?
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2017, 08:34:22 PM »

^ OT, but in that pic, Hawley looks vaguely like Dennis Reynolds from It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia

Think about it. She’s out in the middle of Missouri with some candidate she barely knows. She looks around her, what does she see? Nothing but conservative Republicans. “Oh, there’s nowhere for me to run, what am I gonna do, run as a liberal?”
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Ebsy
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 09:20:01 PM »

I actually thought that was a shot from its always sunny on first glance.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 09:38:07 PM »

McCaskill has the votes to get within Single digits, that's clear. She just doesn't have the votes to win. If the polls next summer are still showing her within striking distance (or leading), we can talk. Still Likely R for now.
likely r, but will still be around just a 3 point win for hawley
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Fudotei
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2017, 11:14:45 PM »

Hawley's pick feels like something an Ivy League educated political scientist in some backroom conference center of the RNC would think up, not a local committee of Greitens fanboys.

Have fun with him, I guess. He seems to fit the boxes, but no one -- not even Eric "I really want to be Scott Walker but without fighting a D legislature" Greitens -- will be able to take dark money like a nationally picked lawyer with creds like Hawley.

No one elected statewide in 2016 fought anyone like McCaskill and their margins are irrelevant in that race. You beat Teresa Hensley. Good job. Do your job now.
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