OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (user search)
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 108229 times)
DrScholl
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Posts: 18,147
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« on: July 23, 2018, 09:37:27 PM »

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,147
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2018, 09:43:24 PM »

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

So? Being from a particular county doesn't always guarantee a home advantage in this sort of environment.
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DrScholl
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*****
Posts: 18,147
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #2 on: August 01, 2018, 03:09:15 PM »

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.
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DrScholl
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*****
Posts: 18,147
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #3 on: August 02, 2018, 03:06:05 PM »

Says a lot for his endorsements if he can't even get the person's name right.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,147
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2018, 06:40:39 PM »

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

Shut up, Beet.
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DrScholl
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,147
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.55, S: -3.30

« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2018, 09:19:08 PM »

That statement seems to imply that he's counting on doing poorly in the most populous counties and is down to trying to scrape up a narrow win by getting enormous margins out of the rural and/or less populous ones.
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