OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Sure, but keep in mind that Monmouth’s poll suggests that there will be a lot more O’Connor GOP voters than vice versa.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

I was in the district two days ago, and while it's entirely anecdotal, I did see several Balderson signs and no O'Connor signs (I was south of Mansfield). I was also in OH-7 and saw a Harbaugh sign but that's neither here nor there.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

If the Emerson (lol) poll were after the rally, then I'd predict an O'Connor win by about that margin, but it wasn't. We gotta remember that Saccone was down about 5 or so before Trump swooped in to stump for him, and said stumping erased that deficit into the virtual tie that that race was. So now, I could see it go either way. I genuinely don't know.

The two districts are different, so it's hard to say that because Trump's rally helped Saccone, it will help Balderson.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

NBC will not call the race tonight:

https://twitter.com/NBCPolitics/status/1027029287646494721

It's pretty unlikely, but O'Connor could still eke out a win.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Interesting news I found on the OH SOS page about the 2016 election:

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https://www.sos.state.oh.us/media-center/press-releases/2016/2016-12-01-b

There's some good news and some bad news buried in those numbers:

The good news is that we can expect a much higher number of provisionals to be counted than I thought (85%).

The bad news is that Hillary only did 6.4 points better with provisional ballots than she did in OH as a whole.

Adjusted for the O'Connor numbers, it would mean he'll end up with only 56% of provisional ballots.

Assuming a recognition rate of 85% for both the remaining postal and provisional ballots, O'Connor would need 61% though to close the gap ...

But close enough for a recount?