OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Hindsight was 2020]

Holy sh!t Jay Goyal -- AKA the one guy who probably could actually win this for Democrats -- is actually considering.

EDIT: Also, very oddly, Franklin County Sheriff, Dallas Baldwin, endorsed his predecessor, Zack Scott for the seat. This is odd, as Baldwin primaried Scott out along internal party division lines.

It's a very good sign that between Lamb, Paul Davis, Ojeda, and now this guy that dems are nailing great recruits in tough districts

[Hindsight was 2020]

Melanie Leneghan, the Freedom Caucus candidate who lost to Balderson by 775 votes, is suing Secretary of State and Republican nominee for Lt. Governor, Jon Husted as well as the Muskingum and Franklin County Boards of Election, claiming that improper procedures were used in the recount process. She is seeking to have 16 precincts in Franklin and Muskingum Counties invalidated, which would give her a very narrow primary win.

Whether or not she wins, this is good news for O'Connor, who massively benefits from a divided GOP.

“Dems are in disarray”

[Hindsight was 2020]

It’s happening

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Any EV updates?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Was today a big vote dump?

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Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

Yikes, I can see it dropping to 50 in about 4 days.

You seriously are on a quest to be more annoying than Limo

[Hindsight was 2020]

Should others break heavy for Danny?

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So where does the race stand today?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

[Hindsight was 2020]

Big endorsement:

Our president has a single digit IQ

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

This is based on who folks voted for in 2016, so it's possible that some Democratic and left leaning Independents that crossed over to vote for Kasich against Trump would be counted as Republicans.

Possible but that is a massive assumption though

[Hindsight was 2020]

Update:



Democrats improved in their absentee performance from yesterday, and Other voters continued to increase while Republicans dropped, possibly signalling a Democratic bump this weekend. Republicans continue to lag behind where they would be in a normal general election.

Dems went from 49.44% to 48.14% and that's improving?

Due to continued increase of “others” that should break heavy for O’Connor

[Hindsight was 2020]

If you're a Republican, you DON'T want VBM to be favoring your party "narrowly."

[Hindsight was 2020]

I have a sneak peak for tomorrow's numbers, where in Franklin County, Democrats turned in 849 (55%) ballots to 402 Other ballots, with Republicans coming in a distant third with 296 (19%) ballots. This was driven by a massive 664 Dem to 159 GOP lead among in person absentees. Looking like the surge is real!

NUT

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's (partial) update:



I only got partial returns (still, I think it has the majority from both) from Morrow and Licking Counties so the numbers here are preliminary. For what we have, Democrats won early voting with 44% to the Republicans 32%, padding their vote lead by 400 votes. Both parties fell in their vote share, as Other voters made up almost 25% of returns for Saturday. This was driven by massive in person returns in Franklin County, as I alluded to above, though Democrats also improved in Richland, Marion and Delaware Counties off strong in person returns.

Looking at the info it looks like others are going to break really heavy for O’Connor so he is about we’re he should be to win give it take how bad he loses ed votes

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026244406029045762

Saturday's Dem blowout in the in person absentees in Franklin County went for a repeat today.

An Delaware is a tie https://mobile.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026240017985757185

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So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

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So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?

Wait, it's over? I though we still had tommorow.

That is correct, there are 6 hours of early voting tomorrow. The final daily update should be tomorrow afternoon.

Oh sorry nm

[Hindsight was 2020]

Latest Emerson poll, from their podcast:

O'Connor 47%
Balderson 46%

Undecided 7%, MOE 5%

Talk about a photo finish! I honestly think this is as close to a 50/50 race as it gets at this point.

Ah damnit that means Balderson is up by 12. Ah well, good try guys, maybe next time

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hate to say it but I was calling days ago that O’Connor EV % was dropping too fast

[Hindsight was 2020]

Balderson is a moron https://mobile.twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1026615126613524481

[Hindsight was 2020]

Franklin County could hits as high as 30% tomorrow https://mobile.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026608562892668930