OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

In what universe would the vote share of Dems going down while the GOP goes up..."better for the Dems"?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

In what universe would the vote share of Dems going down while the GOP goes up..."better for the Dems"?

Maybe the Dems had a worse decline yesterday.

True, but the trajectory makes it crystal clear the Dems aren't clearing 60% at the end of early voting.  Putting it at Likely R for now, perhaps Solid R if it drops to 59% at the end, Lean R at the 60-61 range.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Can an Ohio expert tell me if the partisan breakdown is indicative? I know of even districts in West Virginia or SWPA that are nominally still Demosaur counties. Are the Northern Columbus Metro areas ancestrally Dem or GOP?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

Yikes, I can see it dropping to 50 in about 4 days.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Moving this to Likely R.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The Balderson campaign has gone dark, really odd:

https://twitter.com/Bencjacobs/status/1022897317920366592

Great strategy as it means he won't be overexposed by the media the way Ossoff was.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

Goalposts being moved daily.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

O'CONNOR IS SCREWED, prove me wrong Ohio and I will be too busy celebrating!

Yeah, he needed a 60-40 split in EV'S, the Green Party is too strong, and Franklin needed to be much higher. Likely Balderson and it won't be particularly close. Red avatars here constantly moving goal posts after O'Connor's collapse in EV numbers.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Speaking of Hillary...

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1026979241081139201

Yep, people rushing to give O'Connor the win based on EV's? Laughable. This is Hillary all over again.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Horrid news for Cordray. He's gonna need to win districts like this in order to take back the State House when the South-Eastern corner of the state votes like West Virginia.