OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[libertpaulian]

Today's updated numbers:

Dang.  That's pretty good.  Let's hope these numbers hold up.

[libertpaulian]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

In what universe would the vote share of Dems going down while the GOP goes up..."better for the Dems"?

Maybe the Dems had a worse decline yesterday.

[libertpaulian]

GOP in D I S A R R A Y

https://www.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1025763229019058176

Dems need to counter the Pelosi Strategy with the Jordan Strategy.

[libertpaulian]

If you're a Republican, you DON'T want VBM to be favoring your party "narrowly."

[libertpaulian]

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

So what do their ballots look like if they are voting?

All O’Connor (along with one of my cousins who is also a Republican) except for my uncle who isn’t going to vote because while he doesn’t like Balderson, he’ll never support a Democrat.

Seems like O'Connor voters are more motivated than Balderson voters, even though the supposed "Sleeper Red Wave" is at stake here.

[libertpaulian]

High turnout in Dublin:

https://twitter.com/mayakauf/status/1026923046727299073

Franklin County, right?

Yeah.

Isn't Dublin in Delaware?

[libertpaulian]

I learned to stop cruising PredictIt after the SCOTUS discussion threads.

[libertpaulian]

SFBHDSJFBHJFDBHFDHJFBDHFBHDJFBFDJ

DEMS WILL GAIN 200+ SEATS IN NOVEMBER HOLY FUCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC

WYOMING-SEN IS NOW A TOSSUP

[libertpaulian]

Green candidate with over 100 votes...

DARK GREEN OHIO

[libertpaulian]

O'CONNOR WON DELAWARE 60-39

BLUE WAVE IN NEW YORK

GILLIBRAND IS SAFE

[libertpaulian]

If Delaware County stays (standard) blue, that's horrendous news for DeWine and Renacci, not to mention the statehouse members up for election in OH-12.

[libertpaulian]

I like this rural counties coming in first thing.  Let the Baldyheads think their guy is winning, then do a big Democratic dump toward the end of the vote count.

[libertpaulian]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

[libertpaulian]

WEATHER DOES NOT HAVE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES. IF YOU DON'T VOTE BECAUSE OF RAIN OR HEAT, YOU WEREN'T GOING TO VOTE ANYWAY AND YOU WOULD HAVE FOUND ANOTHER EXCUSE.

As a Democrat I can confirm that the site of clouds causes economic anxiety.

I hear Ambien is a cure for that.

[libertpaulian]

Is the Green Party useful for anything besides getting Republicans elected?

They should really drop the "-EN" from their name and call themselves the "GRE" Party- Getting Republicans Elected Party.