OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Ebsy]

He hasn't even resigned yet and the special hasn't been called, so I think Democrats have time to find a candidate lol.

[Ebsy]

Woops, did not realize there was a megathread for this race, had been posting these in the results thread:

Early voting update, now with all 7 counties:

[Ebsy]

I do not profess to know enough about Ohio or this district to have an answer to that question.

[Ebsy]

Other simply means that the absentee ballot was cast by someone who has not voted in a party primary or voted in a minor party primary (there has been one Green party absentee voter).

[Ebsy]

Today's updated numbers:

[Ebsy]

Any EV updates?

I will post the next update with the big vote dump on Monday.

[Ebsy]

Here is today's update. I'll be trying to get an update from Morrow County at some point this week. Also, there have been small inconsistencies with Marion County's data but hopefully they should be worked out at this point:

[Ebsy]

I think something to watch over the next 12 days of absentee voting is what Franklin County's share of it ends up being. Currently it is sitting at 42%, despite the fact that Franklin County only contains 28% of the district's population. Delaware is sitting at 26% and Licking at 15.7%, compared tot  he 27% and 21% of the electorate they usually amount to. Franklin was 32% of the electorate in 2016 but they are certainly punching even above that at this point.

[Ebsy]

Was today a big vote dump?

Yes, relative to previous days, just under 1300 votes.

[Ebsy]

Today's update, and though Dem vote share decreased slightly, I think today was actually better for the Dems than yesterday.

[Ebsy]

The Dem vote share has fluctuated up and down over the course of early voting... also there has been only one person who has made a claim on what share the Democrat "needs".

[Ebsy]

I have contacted Morrow County for an update so hopefully I should have more up to date data there soon.

[Ebsy]

Since people were wondering about it, I matched partisanship from early voters so far in Licking County back to the 2016 primary and found some interesting results:



Essentially, just 4% of all ballot returns in Licking County have been from current Democrats who voted in the GOP primary in 2016, comprising 8.3% of Democratic ballots. I may look at other counties in the future, but I see no reason for Licking County to be particularly anomalous. Also, speculatively, the high share of partisan loyalty suggests that there are probably very few early voters, Democrats or Republicans, crossing the aisle and voting for the other party's candidate.

[Ebsy]

Today's update. Dems continue to fall modestly, but the difference today was that most of the decline went to a sharp uptick in "Other" voters, either those affiliated with a minor party or with none at all.

[Ebsy]

Okay bud.

[Ebsy]

Thank you for that insightful analysis.

[Ebsy]

Today's update. I received updated Morrow County numbers so all numbers are current. Democrats continue to maintain a sizeable lead, with Republicans gaining modestly and Unaffiliated and minor party returns continue to climb.

[Ebsy]

So really it's the "other" that's eating into the Democratic lead. I.e. new voters/new residents to OH-12.

About 1/3 of the shift was GOP voters, 2/3 in the Other category. This was entirely expected and in line with past patterns of Other voters turning in their ballots much later than partisans.

[Ebsy]

jao, but Franklin County is maintaining its proportion of the Early Vote as balloting continues, clocking in at around 41%, much higher than its usual proportion of the vote. Definitely an encouraging sign for O'Connor.

[Ebsy]

O'Connor has released a new internal from GBA Strategies, showing him down 2 points:

https://www.scribd.com/document/384784512/OH-12-GBA-Strategies-for-Danny-O-Connor-July-2018

O'Connor (DEM): 45
Balderson (GOP): 48
Manchik (GRE): 2

Apparently the discrepancy is from rounding.

[Ebsy]

They certainly aren’t ignoring Field on the Republican side, that’s for sure.

Parachuted in doorknockers for CLF are a poor substitute for campaign staff and volunteer canvassers.

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



There were 559 Democratic ballots returned today to 435 GOP and 185 Other as Democrats continue to build their early voting lead, now nearly 3500 votes. Republicans had a particularly good day in Muskingum County, but this was mostly offset by continuing strength from Democrats in Franklin.

[Ebsy]

For those interested in Franklin County party switchers from the 2016 primary to now, within the current absentee count, those who cast ballots in the 2016 Republican primary and then switched to Democratic in 2018 amount to 4.7% of returns overall and 6.7% of Democratic returns.

[Ebsy]

Today's update. Overall, low number of in person returns today, and with the GOP's typical advantage among mail in absentees, this lead them to eking out a narrow win for the first time. However, as Franklin reports more of today's absentee returns this could well be undone, so don't freak out too much.

[Ebsy]

There are 7 days of absentee voting left, and historical trends suggest that the number of "Other" ballots should dramatically increase in the closing days. Also, there are typically a lot of in person Democratic ballots cast on Saturday and Sunday before the election, the only weekend days when in person early voting is open. Hard to say exactly where O'Connor is going to end up in the early vote, but I think it is likely he ends up winning it 20+ (though the Democratic registration edge may well be lower than that by election day).