OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[TJ in Oregon]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

Nah. If the election's called and there's no margin for an auto recount, expect him to concede quickly.

If the margin's under .5%, though, he'll let the recount go through. As would literally anyone in that position.

Even if you're right, I think it's likely he milks this for everything he can get, if the 2000, 2004, and 2016 elections show is anything it's that much of his base doesn't take losing with grace.

He'd be crazy to concede when he's down by fewer votes than the number of uncounted ballots. It's unreasonable to expect him to.

[Pandaguineapig]

O'Connor could hurt himself for the general of he keeps up this sore-loser schtick, Balderson probably will also be helped by having turnout at normal levels in November

what are you referring to lmao?

O'Connor has refused to concede and he might challenge the results

I mean, nobody has actually called the race. We have thousands of uncounted votes, and they'll remain uncounted till the 18th. And since this race has been decided by less than 1600 votes, its a reasonable idea to wait for the absentee and provisional votes to be tallied. If the margin does get below .5, the state will step in and pay for a recount.

You do realize the odds of the absentees being so lopsided that O'Connor wins are basically nil, right? It would probably be wiser for him to spend his money on November rather than on challenging the results. On the other hand he might realize that he has lost but understands he can raise large amounts of money from resistance idiots who are still in denial, kind of like the Stein recount

Nah. If the election's called and there's no margin for an auto recount, expect him to concede quickly.

If the margin's under .5%, though, he'll let the recount go through. As would literally anyone in that position.

Even if you're right, I think it's likely he milks this for everything he can get, if the 2000, 2004, and 2016 elections show is anything it's that much of his base doesn't take losing with grace.

Lmao. I remember Romney's campaign whining when all the networks called Ohio for Obama when it was clear Obama would win Ohio.

Eh at least they didn't riot and destroy buildings when they lost, Yes republicans didn't exactly celebrate when Obama won in 2008 or 2012 but let's be real; Al Gore still refuses to admit that he lost Florida in 2000, Democrats in the house tried to have electoral votes from Ohio thrown out for no real reason, and, in addition to rioting when they lost the 2016 election, thousands of #resistance half-wits (who now probably look under there beds for Russians when they go to sleep every night) gave millions to a woman who very well may be a Russian asset for a hopeless recount.

[cvparty]

are you guys sure balderson will win barring some crazy dem landslide among the uncounted votes? how many left are there

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

[ajc0918]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

[South Dakota Democrat]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Forgive Bagel, his great passion in life is conceding to Republicans.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Wanna a bet (no money just bragging rights) of who you think is gonna win? I feel pretty confident about The Son Of Balder.

[South Dakota Democrat]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Wanna a bet (no money just bragging rights) of who you think is gonna win? I feel pretty confident about The Son Of Balder.

Saying all the votes should be counted is not the same thing as saying O'Connor will win in the end.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Wanna a bet (no money just bragging rights) of who you think is gonna win? I feel pretty confident about The Son Of Balder.

Saying all the votes should be counted is not the same thing as saying O'Connor will win in the end.

I see you are not confident in O'Connor's chances either.

[South Dakota Democrat]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Wanna a bet (no money just bragging rights) of who you think is gonna win? I feel pretty confident about The Son Of Balder.

Saying all the votes should be counted is not the same thing as saying O'Connor will win in the end.

I see you are not confident in O'Connor's chances either.

Yeah, but there's no reason he should preemptively concede before all the votes are in.  It would be different if Balderson were winning by a clear margin - that is not the case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Every vote should be counted, yeah. It's perfectly fair of O'Connor not to concede until then, even if he obviously won't win.

[Brittain33]

There is zero reason for O’Connor to concede, including zero reasons associated with the November race. Yes, Republicans and pseudoRepublicans, we get why you think it’s a marvelous idea.

[Rhenna]

I know there will be some type of Atlas red wave.

But I feel it will not reach AR 2, which is my premier race.  In spite of Little Rock I believe the collar counties will pull French Hill over the finish line.  Hill is my favorite to replace Boozman in 2022.

So I feel good today.  

I dont think so, no. And Hill is a strong incumbent. Clarke isn't a bad candidate though. Lean R

LOL Hill is not strong. I doubt most people in the district know who he is. Haven't seen many signs for him either.

[rob in cal]

  Ridiculous for DOC to concede.  By doing so he would insult all those who voted legally via the provisional ballot method and all those who got there absentee votes in the mail just under the wire. Let the votes be counted.

[DINGO Joe]

O'Connor, be a man and concede already.

He doesn’t need to concede when there are more than 4x the ballots outstanding than the margin.

Forgive Bagel, his great passion in life is conceding to Republicans.

[KingSweden]

I know there will be some type of Atlas red wave.

But I feel it will not reach AR 2, which is my premier race.  In spite of Little Rock I believe the collar counties will pull French Hill over the finish line.  Hill is my favorite to replace Boozman in 2022.

So I feel good today. 

Not Crawford or Griffin?

[Tender Branson]

Why would you concede a race where you are down 1.500 votes, but there are 8.500 potential Dem-leaning ballots left to count ?

The one thing O'Connor should do now is to launch a strong media campaign to encourage his provisional voters to show up at their districts to present IDs, so that their votes are counted. The more provisional ballots are counted, the higher the chances for O'Connor to close the gap.

While I agree that the remaining ballots need to be very favourable for him to pull ahead, this is not the time to concede.

[Tender Branson]

If 7.000 of the 8.500 remaining ballots are valid and O'Connor wins 61% of them vs. 38% for Balderson, it's a totally tied race (or small advantage O'Connor).

O'Connor would gain 4.270 votes, Balderson 2.660, Manchik 70.

New overall results:

100.208 + 4.270 => 104.478 - O'Connor (49.73%)
101.772 + 2.660 => 104.432 - Balderson (49.70%)
    1.129 +      70 =>     1.199 - Manchik (0.57%)

[IceSpear]

There is zero reason for O’Connor to concede, including zero reasons associated with the November race. Yes, Republicans and pseudoRepublicans, we get why you think it’s a marvelous idea.

(sane)

It's not like Balderson's margin is higher than the amount of votes that remain to be counted. The chances are very slim he'd be able to make up the difference, but there's no reason not to let the process play out.

[Tender Branson]

Another scenario:

If 84% of the remaining postal ballots are valid and O'Connor wins them by 56-43-1 and about 61% of the provisional ballots are valid and O'Connor wins them 74-25-1, it would also create a tied race.

O'Connor would net an additional 550 votes from the postal ballots and 1.100 votes from the provisionals - more than his current 1.564 deficit.

[NOVA Green]

Now that we have "provisional" election results by by precinct for Franklin County, time to take a look at the overall numbers....

Here is the Vote Share % by Place in Franklin County between the 2016 Presidential Total Vote and the 2018 OH CD-12 numbers (Excepting any still to be counted absentee and provisional ballots, which will likely occur in more heavily DEM precincts within the County).



So although it's slightly harder to discern from the Graph, it's pretty clear that the CD-12 Franklin County precincts in Columbus, actually accounted for a significantly lower share of the total vote share than in 2016....

It's not just the raw % numbers, but also that 3% of Franklin County jurisdictional ballots were classified as "Write-In" in 2016, as opposed to 2018. Meaning that if the City of Columbus represented roughly 50% of the Write-In ballots in 2016 (Assuming even City vs elsewhere in FrankCo split), we still have an additional 1.5% decrease of the total vote share for the City of Columbus precincts within CD-12.

Columbus was 47.6% of the Total Vote Share of CD-12 in 2016 and was 47.1% in 2018, even without subtracting an additional 1.5%, which would put it closer to 45.6% in '18 (Without absentee/provo votes).

Meanwhile you see more traditional Republican places in Franklin Co CD-12, see an increase in their overall Vote Share....

Dublin goes from 14.0% > 15.3%   (+1.3% Increase)
Westerville: 11.4% > 13.2%           (+1.8% Increase)

Now I haven't run the VAP numbers for Dublin and Westerville between Nov '16 and Aug '18 to account for population % change, but still these numbers appear to indicate an increase of PUB leaning TO in Franklin County receptive places, regardless of demographic change.

How did the places in Franklin County shift between '16 PRES GE and '18 CD-12 SE (Current #s only without the Provo Vote)?




Very interesting....

Not only did IN COLUMBUS we see the lowest swings between '16 and '18 of any place within Franklin County, but also the largest drop of the overall vote share....

This was supposed to be O'Connors "Dem surge" stronghold, but instead it was other parts of Franklin County that dramatically bumped the DEM's % AND raw vote margins.

Westerville: 11.4% Vote Share (2016) ---- > 13.2% Vote Share (2018) ---- +1.8% Vote Share Increase '16 GE > '18 CD-12 SE.

Swings: + 19 DEM ('16 GE to '18 SE)

Worthington: 6.6% Vote Share (2016) ---->  8.4% Vote Share (2018) ---- +1.8% Vote Share Increase '16 GE > '18 CD-12 SE.

Swings: + 13 % DEM ('16 GE to '18 SE).

Columbus:

Swings: +13% D

This would normally be reasonable, but decreased Columbus Vote Share wiped off a decent chunk of potential Columbus margins in a normal General Election... (Is there such a thing???).

New Albany:

Way under-performance on Dem swings.... Vote Share () not so sure, it's a pretty small community, but they tend to be reliable voters in just about any election in Franklin County.

I'll go into each of the cities in a bit more detail, now that I have an initial precinct data set for Franklin County, but initial results are actually quite interesting and perhaps even raise some questions about the CW of so many Media pundits on this election....

IDK, but just started looking into the numbers, and thought I would share some of the stuff that I've fulled up thus far.

[Tender Branson]

This is funny:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

And this is not the only funny part ... he's also named O'Connor:

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https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/08/libertarian_oconnor_wont_be_on.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/midawson/status/1028016538476064770

[MycroftCZ]

https://twitter.com/midawson/status/1028016538476064770

It's still unlikely but this makes me hopeful that O'Connor can still come back.

[Antonio the Sixth]

...oh, wow. Okay, if this pattern holds, O'Connor could net a full 1000 votes from the remaining absentees. He would still need to win around 65% of the remaining provisionals to edge out Balderson, but that doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

I'd love to look like an idiot for saying it was over.