OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Free Bird]

If the Emerson (lol) poll were after the rally, then I'd predict an O'Connor win by about that margin, but it wasn't. We gotta remember that Saccone was down about 5 or so before Trump swooped in to stump for him, and said stumping erased that deficit into the virtual tie that that race was. So now, I could see it go either way. I genuinely don't know.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If the Emerson (lol) poll were after the rally, then I'd predict an O'Connor win by about that margin, but it wasn't. We gotta remember that Saccone was down about 5 or so before Trump swooped in to stump for him, and said stumping erased that deficit into the virtual tie that that race was. So now, I could see it go either way. I genuinely don't know.

Why do some many GOPer's knock "the polls" cuz muh Trump 2016, but along with Trump take that ONE poll about PA 18th as gospel? Because it suits your narrative. Now I tend to lean more towards objectivity in my predictions regardless of outcome, hence my Balderson will win predictition. Heck, I even am a little bias against dems in my predictions.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I'm like 93% certain that son of Balder will be the victor.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

There is a special place in left wing hell for all the left wingers who vote for Manchik.

[Tender Branson]

Go Danny !

Can't wait for the results. When are polls closing (Central European Time) ?

2.30am ?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Go Danny !

Can't wait for the results. When are polls closing (Central European Time) ?

2.30am ?

I think 12:30 AM CET but don't count on it.

[NOVA Green]

More anecdotals: My mom is a registered Republican (voted Kasich in the 2016 primary) and my parents’ house (very wealthy part of Gahanna) has been visited five times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from the Balderson folks.  My aunt and uncle (independent and Republican, respectively) live in a particularly country clubby part of New Albany and have been visited three times by O’Connor’s campaign, nothing from Balderson’s campaign.  

Do you want me to post the numbers from Gahanna and New Albany with EV numbers as of Yesterday (Courtesy of Ebsy....    )    ?

Although I lived in Ohio for Four Years 20+ Years ago in College, I was basically 20 Minutes from Dayton and 50 Minutes from both Columbus and Cinci, so don't pretend to have any of detailed knowledge of the State from a local perspective anymore, although I remember how excited the College Students on my campus were when Bill Clinton won Ohio in '92 (First time in '64???).

What I *suspect* we might be seeing in Metro Columbus (Based upon '08 > '16 PRES results) is a pattern that we observed for the first time in recent American Electoral History in some of the major Metro areas of the West Coast back in '88 (Seattle, Portland, Bay Area Suburbs) where suburban voters started to identify more with the residents of the "City" as opposed to the traditional City/Suburban political, social, and economic divide.

It's early on yet, but we are starting to see in the heavily Ancestral Republican suburbs of North Franklin County (Including the City of Columbus proper) move heavily Democratic at the Presidential Level.

We have yet to see these types of movements at other Federal Elections (With a few exceptions and a few Cities), let alone see the impact at down-ballot Statewide Races where the Republican Coalition still holds strong, and the Democratic Coalition is much more dependent upon large turnouts in the Cities, Ancestral White Union Democrats throughout, swing voters in the 'Burbs, and keeping margins down in the Rurals, especially in places like SE OH.

Still, at the end of the day a "New Democratic Winning Coalition" in Ohio will inherently involve both a mixture of rapidly swing DEM voters in places like the wealthier 'Burbs of Columbus, combined with high turnout in the Cities, AND regaining those WWC voters that were more than happy to vote for Barrack O'Bama in both '08 and '12 and swung hard Trump in '16....

Yeah, Gahanna and New Albany numbers would be great! Thanks

My laptop completely crashed on Election Eve, and just got back online....

Ask and ye shall receive:

Franklin Co- OH- Gahanna- 6.1% of 2016 Vote Share.



People can say what they want to say about the Early Vote in Franklin County, but Republicans at only 25% of the EV in Gahanna looks really weird, and suggests that Dem Franklin County percentages and margins might be extremely high, even outside of the City of Columbus where quite frankly the EV numbers by Party are starting to look more like Portland Oregon GE PRES numbers than would be expected for the wealthy neighborhoods of North Columbus.

Franklin Co- OH - New Albany-  ~ 3% of Franklin County Vote Share 2016.



Once again we see EV numbers that are completely devastating, in Upper-Income Educated Communities where Republican leaning voters tend to vote extremely early, just like Democrats....

Honestly these EV numbers we are seeing from every Municipality in Franklin County are looking devastating for Republicans, regardless of the massive surge of Democratic voters within the Columbus City precincts of OH CD-12.

Will it be enough, I don't know, but honestly I wouldn't be surprised to see record levels of support for a Democratic Candidate running for Federal Office within most of Franklin County.

[wesmoorenerd]

Good morning everyone! As we approach poll openings, PredictIt has OH-12 at exactly 50-50. Here we go.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good morning everyone! As we approach poll openings, PredictIt has OH-12 at exactly 50-50. Here we go.

Future Congressman Balderson will win little doubt, congrats to O'Connor on a hard fought campaign that was winnable with a better dem candidate but oh well, and don't even think about Ohio 12th in november.

[NOVA Green]

If I were part of the O'Connor campaign this is what I would be perhaps most worried about....

Licking County---- Newark, Ohio--- `25% of 2016 Licking County Vote Share.



Although on paper these margin improvements in the CD-12 EV look like really nice numbers, the reality is that this is nowhere near the numbers that O'Connor needs to perform in to keep Licking County margins low.

This is quite frankly home to a ton of Obama '08/'12 > Trump '16 voters, and I'm not seeing the numbers here to suggest thus far that O'Connor will keep PUB numbers low within one of the larger vote centers within the County....

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why shouldnt Dems think about it in Nov? Theres no coattails to run on in the special. Dems need Sherrod Brown's coattails to be competetive. Dems have won every race, except for 2008 with him on ballot: 2006, 2012, lost 2010, 2014 and 2016.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why shouldnt Dems think about it in Nov? Theres no coattails to run on in the special. Dems need Sherrod Brown's coattails to be competetive. Dems have won every race, except for 2008 with him on ballot: 2006, 2012, lost 2010, 2014 and 2016.

cuz ge turnout tends to be more favorable to the gop in this district and also nearly all dems and national money as well as grassroots throughout the nation will completely ditch this district when O'Connor loses today, like Georgia 6th, and AZ 8th, Ohio 12th will turn into Likely R for the GE this fall. It turns back into a pumpkin, and the only way it flips is a mooreing or a blue tsunami. People will forget about this race because there will be many many many districts that are better spots for us to secure a win before this district, and everyone will be too busy with those to really care about Ohio 12th which will just be rightfully forgotten in the fray. And reenter obscurity till after redistricting.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This truly is a now or never moment for dems in Ohio 12th for the next four years till redistricting, and I am fairly confident that we are going to blow it. That said, if O'Connor somehow defies all odds and eeks it out, consider him a strong favorite for november.

[Rhenna]

Going to say Balderson wins so when O'Connor wins I won't be disappointed.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Go Danny !

Can't wait for the results. When are polls closing (Central European Time) ?

2.30am ?

I think 12:30 AM CET but don't count on it.

7:30 PM EDT, which is 1:30 AM CEST.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Go Danny !

Can't wait for the results. When are polls closing (Central European Time) ?

2.30am ?

I think 12:30 AM CET but don't count on it.

7:30 PM EDT, which is 1:30 AM CEST.

I trained myself for weeks so that I could stay up until 4am and see the results come in. I hope you guys appreciate my efforts.

[Free Bird]

This truly is a now or never moment for dems in Ohio 12th for the next four years till redistricting, and I am fairly confident that we are going to blow it. That said, if O'Connor somehow defies all odds and eeks it out, consider him a strong favorite for november.

Probably, which is also why I'm confident the likes of Mike Coffman and Dino Rossi. Personal popularity (if O'Connor wins) is a powerful thing.

[wesmoorenerd]

I swear to god Bagel if you make one more reply to this thread saying Balderson is going to win by 6 or some other hogwash I'm launching an ICBM at suburban Dallas

[Gass3268]

If the Emerson (lol) poll were after the rally, then I'd predict an O'Connor win by about that margin, but it wasn't. We gotta remember that Saccone was down about 5 or so before Trump swooped in to stump for him, and said stumping erased that deficit into the virtual tie that that race was. So now, I could see it go either way. I genuinely don't know.

Sean T from RCP, who lives in the area, thinks that Trump's rally probably did more to help O'Connor than Balderson.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I’ll have on-the-ground turnout reports after work.  I may also have anecdotals about some combination of Dublin, New Albany, Worthington, Heath (a city in Licking County), and Powell as well, but no promises.  

More anecdotals:
- A friend of mine (registered independent who *very* reluctantly voted for Hillary to stop Trump and whose family lives in Powell and consists of an independent who also reluctantly voted for Hillary and three Republicans, two of whom voted for Trump - the parents - and one of whom wrote-in a Kasich/Gary Johnson ticket of all things) said he’s voting for O’Connor along with everyone in his family except the dad who is voting for Balderson b/c he’s “tough on immigration.”  

- Yard sign report: Three in Gahanna, one in Columbus, and one in Dublin for O’Connor.  I have literally seen only one Balderson sign this cycle and it was in Hilliard (Stivers’ district ).  No non-Franklin County yardsigns for anyone when I drove to The Wilds about a month/3 weeks ago.  A number of houses in Gahanna and New Albany where this is the first major race where I’ve ever seen them without a yard sign for a Republican.  Franklin County is definitely gonna do its part for O’Connor

Full-disclosure: I don’t go to the other (non-Franklin County) parts of the district too often.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

If the Emerson (lol) poll were after the rally, then I'd predict an O'Connor win by about that margin, but it wasn't. We gotta remember that Saccone was down about 5 or so before Trump swooped in to stump for him, and said stumping erased that deficit into the virtual tie that that race was. So now, I could see it go either way. I genuinely don't know.

The two districts are different, so it's hard to say that because Trump's rally helped Saccone, it will help Balderson.

[Mr. Illini]

Good morning all...Happy Election Day! Let's get a win!

[BuckeyeNut]

jbd, Grandview is entirely within be 15th, not the 12th.

Also two stories.

1: Similar to jbd’s situation, a good family friend of mine in Powell has been canvassed 5 times by the O’Connor campaign. She’s a professor at OSU and a regular Democrat, so I guess they just want to make sure everyone turns out.

2: Per NOVA’s point about Licking looking concernin for O’Connor, I know for a fact that the Denison College Democrats were pleading with the O’Connor campaign to help them get students absentee ballot request forms back in May, and the O’Connor campaign basically shrugged it off at the time. Now, evidently, theyve been scrambling to try and pull more student votes out of Licking, and they’re just not there since school isn’t in.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I swear to god Bagel if you make one more reply to this thread saying Balderson is going to win by 6 or some other hogwash I'm launching an ICBM at suburban Dallas

Lol, It's not like it's within the rcp moe or anything, as soon as polls close I can basically start calling Balderson congressman-elect.

[KingSweden]

Bring on the anecdotal turnout and weather reports