OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

Do the two of you want to lose money lol?

We’ll see!

I correctly called the AL Sen special and the margin, but sadly wasn’t on PredictIt at the time.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026563536993091585

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Looks like I might be buying some shares of Balderson on election night.

Do the two of you want to lose money lol?

We’ll see!

I correctly called the AL Sen special and the margin, but sadly wasn’t on PredictIt at the time.

If I’m right and O’Connor wins, that’s great; if he loses then at least I’ll make a few bucks

[Ebsy]

Final Update:



Through today, the last day of early voting. Democrats end with a 10.5 point edge in early vote vote partisanship (compared to their usual 20+ point deficit). I'll have more analysis tonight, but this is consistent with 1. a close race and 2. special election turnout of around 110-140k. Franklin Count has dropped quite a bit from their initial share of the early vote, but it is still far ahead of it's usual 32% of the electorate.

[Atlas Force]

How much did Portman win this district by in 2016?

[Ebsy]

Final numbers on absentees by vote type:

[Virginiá]

How much did Portman win this district by in 2016?

62 - 34%

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Final numbers on absentees by vote type:

Guys we are probably winning vbm's as well if the gop only leads 39-37. Other and indies are breaking hard for us regardless of who wins (otherwise this race would not even be close) also maybe balderson may get like 1 outta 37 dems while O Connor is probably hitting near 3 or 4 outta 39.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

That said these numbers look too flimsy to hold up. Obama won ev in ohio by like 20 and then won the state by like 3, a 17 pt reduction. Other and indies would have to heavily break for us to try and meet this metric. That also said, the dynamics of this race are very sifferent as well.

[BuckeyeNut]

Final Update:



Through today, the last day of early voting. Democrats end with a 10.5 point edge in early vote vote partisanship (compared to their usual 20+ point deficit). I'll have more analysis tonight, but this is consistent with 1. a close race and 2. special election turnout of around 110-140k. Franklin Count has dropped quite a bit from their initial share of the early vote, but it is still far ahead of it's usual 32% of the electorate.

110 - 140k seems right, but if that's the case, this really isn't enough.

40% is the ideal EV share, but we're not close to that. If it's 110k, then 31% did EV. If it's 140k, then it was only 24% who did EV.

110k scenario, assuming 100 voters.

By raw, O'Connor has 15 votes, Balderson has 11. But we know O'Connor will win some Rs, and Balderson will presumably win some Ds. Usually 10% of Rs vote D and vice versa. Let's be generous, and say O'Connor wins 15% of Rs, and Balderson only wins 5% of Ds. In that case, we're at O'Connor 16, Balderson 10. There are 5 remaining EVs, at least one of which goes to the Green. Of the remaining 4, it's probably near a 50-50 split. So at the end of EV, we're at O'Connor 18, Balderson 12, Manchik 1.

There are 69 votes remaining, one of which will go to the Green, so there are 68 votes for the major parties. O'Connor would be very lucky to get 45% of the vote during ED. Let's say he did. Of the 68 remaining, O'Connor would get 31 votes to Balderson's 37. So the total would be O'Connor 49, Balderson 49, Manchik 2.

It's however, much more likely O'Connor gets closer to 40% of the vote on ED. In that case, the final tally would be Balderson 52, O'Connor 46, Manchik 2.

Split the difference, and you get Balderson 50%, O'Connor 48%, Manchik 2%.

--

If you assume that instead, there's a slightly higher turnout then the numbers change to the following.

45% ED model: Balderson 50, O'Connor 48, Manchik 2

40% ED model: Balderson 54, O'Connor 44, Manchik 2

Avg. model: Balderson 52, O'Connor 46, Manchik 2

--

There's a third scenario where this is a really low turnout election and we're on track for the standard, where 40% of votes are EV. In that case, you change the numbers to the following.

45% ED model: O'Connor 50, Balderson 48, Manchik 2

40% ED model: Balderson 52, O'Connor 46, Manchik 2

Avg. model: Balderson 50, O'Connor 48, Manchik 2.

--

Everyone seems to be betting on O'Connor getting 45% of the vote tomorrow with ~110k turnout, and I just can't get myself to believe it. I buy ~110k turnout, but even then, it's a dead-heat scenario.

[BudgieForce]

That said these numbers look too flimsy to hold up. Obama won ev in ohio by like 20 and then won the state by like 3, a 17 pt reduction. Other and indies would have to heavily break for us to try and meet this metric. That also said, the dynamics of this race are very sifferent as well.

Why does that matter in this specific congressional district.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Hate to say it but I was calling days ago that O’Connor EV % was dropping too fast

[BudgieForce]

Hate to say it but I was calling days ago that O’Connor EV % was dropping too fast

Again, we dont know who these ballots were cast for.

[BuckeyeNut]

Hate to say it but I was calling days ago that O’Connor EV % was dropping too fast

Again, we dont know who these ballots were cast for.

No, but we can make well-educated guesses.

[Badger]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

Hey man, when did I ever doubt you that Franklin County turnout was going to kick butt for O'Connor?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

Hey man, when did I ever doubt you that Franklin County turnout was going to kick butt for O'Connor?

You were pretty skeptical for a while that O’Connor could win Dublin or Westerville

[Badger]

Oh well, at least Balderson will still be better than Tiberi.

I suspect they'll be indistinguishable in their voting records. If anything, Morrison might be slightly less likely to Buck Trump considering he ran is a trump loyalists in the primary, and even to some degree in the general election.

[Xing]

This is looking like it'll be very close. I think O'Connor could very well pull it off, but I'm going to say Balderson wins 49-48 as my final prediction, just so not to get my hopes up too much.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is looking like it'll be very close. I think O'Connor could very well pull it off, but I'm going to say Balderson wins 49-48 as my final prediction, just so not to get my hopes up too much.

[JG]

This is looking like it'll be very close. I think O'Connor could very well pull it off, but I'm going to say Balderson wins 49-48 as my final prediction, just so not to get my hopes up too much.

[Badger]

OH CD-12 EV Numbers to Date Elsewhere within Franklin Co....

Worthington---- 6.6% of 2016 Vote Share.



EV numbers look atrocious for PUBS even in a City that just recently started voting DEM for PRES in larger numbers in 2012.

Westerville-



This is a City that went +10% Mitt Romney in '12 and DEM margins are +20%, not even including the other vote in Early Voting!!!

I could pull up similar insane numbers for Dublin, etc.... but really I would not be surprised to see final Franklin County SE numbers looking extremely lopsided for O'Connor considering such an extremely poor Republican EV performance in Franklin County, which I suspect is NOT a typical scenario, and also how even relatively historically PUB friendly municipalities are not turning out their voters.

Next I think I'll take a look at the EV numbers by place for Delaware County and match against historical election results, to give us another election weekend teaser....

THANKS AGAIN EBSY!!!!

@ Badger: I now accept my accolades

Hey man, when did I ever doubt you that Franklin County turnout was going to kick butt for O'Connor?

You were pretty skeptical for a while that O’Connor could win Dublin or Westerville

I deny any recollection.

New Albany, yes. I think that hesitancy disappeared when I learned that Hillary actually carried Dublin and Westerville. 

Really no idea where this race is going to go. Nova and Buckeye nut both make excellent points even if they tend to contradict.

The best I can say is that if O'Connor wins, come November the races at least lean O'Connor. Not even tilt. If he pulls this off, I can't imagine a democratic incumbent being thrown out barring Scandal like circumstances considering what November is likely to look like.

[Adam Griffin]

Just looking at the final EV numbers and considering past specials...if I had to guess, I'd say it's 59-41 O'Connor in the two-way model. It could be higher if he's winning a near-unanimous number of Other voters or pulling something like 1 in 5 Republicans or more, though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Just looking at the final EV numbers and considering past specials...if I had to guess, I'd say it's 59-41 O'Connor in the two-way model. It could be higher if he's winning a near-unanimous number of Other voters or pulling something like 1 in 5 Republicans or more, though.

Surely you mean 51-49. There's no way in Hell Balderson wins with an 18% lead.

[Adam Griffin]

Just looking at the final EV numbers and considering past specials...if I had to guess, I'd say it's 59-41 O'Connor in the two-way model. It could be higher if he's winning a near-unanimous number of Other voters or pulling something like 1 in 5 Republicans or more, though.

Surely you mean 51-49. There's no way in Hell Balderson wins with an 18% lead.

I meant that the early vote breakdown is something like 59% O'Connor, 41% Balderson (two-way).

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is looking like it'll be very close. I think O'Connor could very well pull it off, but I'm going to say Balderson wins 49-48 as my final prediction, just so not to get my hopes up too much.