OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Ohioguy29]

GOP in D I S A R R A Y

https://www.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1025763229019058176

Wow, that was pathetic. The media would put this on constant loop if it was a Democrat literally running away when asked about Pelosi.

[Ebsy]

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usually varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

I am expecting closer 100k-110k based on the early vote.

What was the early vote in recent elections in OH, as a percentage of the total vote ?

The average in this district has been 32% for the past couple general elections.

[Tender Branson]

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usually varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

I am expecting closer 100k-110k based on the early vote.

What was the early vote in recent elections in OH, as a percentage of the total vote ?

The average in this district has been 32% for the past couple general elections.

I still think there will be 120-180k votes in the end.

The primary already had 120k as well (like in AZ) and the general usually has more turnout.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This race just aint got the same feeling and spice as PA 18th where initially I was expecting a high single digit victory for Saccone, but it started tightening, and in the final week or so I moved my final guess to Lamb +1.5. This race does not feel right, I stick by my final call of Balderson winning 52-46, I doubt I will be changing it before the election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Of course, you are predicting, that DeWine, who slightly behind Cordray is gonna win😒

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Of course, you are predicting, that DeWine, who slightly behind Cordray is gonna win😒

Thinking DeWine wins by about 4-5 points is not trolling regardless of what you might think. It's not like he's leading in most polls or anything (7 out of 11 and 5 out of 7 non internals and even led in one dem internal). There is a strong case to argue for a Cordray victory and I could easily see one, but it's kind of hackish on your end to roll your eyes at someone who thinks DeWine edges out. Oh wow, who would think DeWine winning is even within the realm of decent possibilities?! Oh wait, anyone besides Atlas hacks.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I evaluate everything, the GOP having to defend so many district seats in territory similar to OH-12, 36 of them is making me reach a conclusion, that the GOP is gonna get swept this Nov in the House, Senate and Gubernatorial election. Also, this is the same Mike DeWine, in 2006, that Sherrod Brown defeat. He's not unbeatable. Also, Trump won OH, in 2016, its still a purple state. Its not IN, alot of GOPers think so

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I evaluate everything, the GOP having to defend so many district seats in territory similar to OH-12, 36 of them is making me reach a conclusion, that the GOP is gonna get swept this Nov in the House, Senate and Gubernatorial election. Also, this is the same Mike DeWine, in 2006, that Sherrod Brown defeat. He's not unbeatable. Also, Trump won OH, in 2016, its still a purple state. Its not IN, alot of GOPers think so

Good points but don't you think that Cordray is a much weaker opponent than Brown? I agree that DeWine is not some unbeatable titan and don't see a path for his victory really any more than 4-5 points barring some scandal, and I could easily see him going down if the environment slightly exceeds my expectations. I disagree with the GOP on that. Ohio is still very much a competitive state, it has a slight R bend in it, but it is nowhere close to strong Likely R Indiana where only titans like Donnelly stand a chance these days.

[Brittain33]

This race just aint got the same feeling and spice as PA 18th where initially I was expecting a high single digit victory for Saccone, but it started tightening, and in the final week or so I moved my final guess to Lamb +1.5. This race does not feel right, I stick by my final call of Balderson winning 52-46, I doubt I will be changing it before the election.

Balderson winning by 6 would be remarkable given that the Republicans are behaving like they might lose.

[Rhenna]

I think this definitely tilts towards O'Connor at this point. I hope he can keep it in November.

[BuckeyeNut]

This should remain a pretty low turnout election. It’s August. People are on vacation and getting their kids ready for back-to-school. I talked to a friend who lives in the district yesterday, and they had no idea there was an election going on until the day before we spoke.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Obviously this is extremely anecdotal, but a friend of mine from Dublin who was a big #NeverTrumper, but has never voted Democratic in his life aside from voting for Cordrey over DeWine in the 2010 AG election (although he wrote-in Kasich in 2016 Presidential election) is canvassing for O'Connor this weekend.  He said the things that convinced him to support O'Connor were 1) O'Connor's pledge to vote against Pelosi for Speaker (which seems to have been the deciding factor in this case) and support a different Democrat instead and 2) Balderson's comment about giving guns to mentally ill people.

[windjammer]

Obviously this is extremely anecdotal, but a friend of mine from Dublin who was a big #NeverTrumper, but has never voted Democratic in his life aside from voting for Cordrey over DeWine in the 2010 AG election (although he wrote-in Kasich in 2016 Presidential election) is canvassing for O'Connor this weekend.  He said the things that convinced him to support O'Connor were 1) O'Connor's pledge to vote against Pelosi for Speaker (which seems to have been the deciding factor in this case) and support a different Democrat instead and 2) Balderson's comment about giving guns to mentally ill people.

The question will be: will that be enough

[BuckeyeNut]

O’Connor actually seems to be winning a good number of people over on the gun-control issue, which is somewhat surprising. It obviously isn’t going to help him in Richland or Muskingum County, but the well-educated moderate Republicans of the Franklin County suburbs, as well as in Delaware and Licking County are fed up.

[Gass3268]

Balderson did not invite Trump to come yesterday, he came on his own:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1026146229414244352

[Antonio the Sixth]

ayy lmao

[Dr. Arch]

ayy lmao

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

[Ebsy]

Today's (partial) update:



I only got partial returns (still, I think it has the majority from both) from Morrow and Licking Counties so the numbers here are preliminary. For what we have, Democrats won early voting with 44% to the Republicans 32%, padding their vote lead by 400 votes. Both parties fell in their vote share, as Other voters made up almost 25% of returns for Saturday. This was driven by massive in person returns in Franklin County, as I alluded to above, though Democrats also improved in Richland, Marion and Delaware Counties off strong in person returns.

[junior chįmp]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

With loser Trump in office...there are no weak candidates.

Remember....through Trump, all things are possible

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's (partial) update:



I only got partial returns (still, I think it has the majority from both) from Morrow and Licking Counties so the numbers here are preliminary. For what we have, Democrats won early voting with 44% to the Republicans 32%, padding their vote lead by 400 votes. Both parties fell in their vote share, as Other voters made up almost 25% of returns for Saturday. This was driven by massive in person returns in Franklin County, as I alluded to above, though Democrats also improved in Richland, Marion and Delaware Counties off strong in person returns.

Looking at the info it looks like others are going to break really heavy for O’Connor so he is about we’re he should be to win give it take how bad he loses ed votes

[BuckeyeNut]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

[Ebsy]

Still, local countywide elected official in the largest county in the district is far from a recruiting failure.

[NOVA Green]

So, one item that I have neglected to discuss thus far are the rural portions of Licking County, which account for roughly 38% of the Total County Vote in US Presidential Elections, and vote overwhelmingly Republican at virtually all levels.

2004: (66-34 R)  +32% R
2008: (63-35 R)  +28% R     (+4% D Swing)
2012: (62-36 R)  +26% R     (+2% D Swing)
2016: (71-25 R)  +46% R     (+20% R Swing)

One thing that I've been wondering is how the impact of Trump's Tariffs on China will play out in Farm Country over the next few election cycles.

Here is the overall Agricultural Profile of Licking County.







So here we see the significance of Soybean Crops to the local agricultural sector, as well as Corn and grazing land tied to pig feeding, which is a pretty typical pattern in much of Ohio, and that part of the Midwest.

Let's look at the % of the work-force employed directly in the Agricultural Industry by Township within Licking County.



So here we see that direct agricultural related industries are predominately clustered in the NW portion of the County, as well as a few Townships in the Northeastern corner of the County.

Although overall direct farming related employment isn't that high, which is not completely surprising considering that Corn and Soybeans tend to be capital or machine-intensive forms of Agriculture rather than labor-intensive forms of agriculture, it still creates a disproportionate local economic impact on these communities because of all of the indirect jobs tied to farming.

So let's take a look at a few of these Townships with a higher than average agricultural related employment...

Burlington Township:

2012: (61-36 R)   +25% R
2016: (73-24 R)   +49% R        (+24% R Swing)

Eden/Fallsbury Township:

2012: (60-40 R)    +20% R
2016: (76-20 R)    +56% R      (+36% R Swing)

Bennington Township:

2012: (68-30 R)    +38% R
2016: (74-22 R)    +52% R      (+14% R Swing)

Monroe Township:

2012: (67-30 R)     +37% R
2016: (69- 25 R)    +44% R     (+ 7% R Swing)

So interestingly enough, although more heavily agricultural based townships tend to be overwhelmingly Republican, you do see some potentially persuadable voters that might chose to express their discontent with Trump's Agricultural/Trade policies at the ballot box in upcoming elections.

Now Agricultural isn't the only game in town in Rural Licking County....

Manufacturing is a significant employer in a cluster of Rural Townships located within the SE portion of the County, and in Five of the Six Townships bordered in RED is higher than the overall County Average of 12% of the Workforce.

These Five Townships represent 6.4% of the Licking County total vote share.



What I suspect is that in many of these Townships, Manufacturing Workers are employed in the Industrial Parks of Newark, although it is possible that there might be a Poultry processing plant in a few places (Perry Township???) would is also technically coded as Manufacturing Employment rather than Agricultural Employment.

How did the heavily manufacturing sector rural Townships vote in previous US Presidential Elections?



So here we see how Democratic and Republican raw vote numbers were relatively stable at the Presidential level until 2016, where suddenly the raw Republican vote margins jumped from roughly 1.5k R to about 2.8k R.

It will be interesting to see if the Trump phenomenon was a fluke in places like this, or part of a broader shift away from Democratic national candidates.

Now let's look at it from a % level to see how extensive the collapse of the Democratic Presidential vote was in 2016 in these rural manufacturing employed townships.



Yikes--- the Dems were getting 33-36% of the Vote in '04/'08/'12 and it plummeted to 22% with HRC as the Candidate. Pub Pres vote % was 61-66% and it surged to 71% in 2016!!!

Clearly we have a pretty significant number of "Ancestral Presidential Democrats" floating around in these parts, despite these Townships still being heavily Republican.

How will they vote on Tuesday and this coming November?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1026153810425794560