OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 107131 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #600 on: August 04, 2018, 04:33:05 PM »

If you're a Republican, you DON'T want VBM to be favoring your party "narrowly."
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #601 on: August 04, 2018, 04:39:18 PM »

If you're a Republican, you DON'T want VBM to be favoring your party "narrowly."

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Ebsy
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« Reply #602 on: August 04, 2018, 04:48:27 PM »

Yeah, I was actually shocked how close Democrats have kept VBM returns. Now, there will be a lot of returns before election day, but still.

Now that Saturday early voting has concluded (will have those numbers hopefully tomorrow), there are just 4 hours tomorrow and 6 hours on Monday left of early voting. VBM ballots. however, are accepted up until polls close on Tuesday.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #603 on: August 04, 2018, 05:28:05 PM »

Guys if anything we are narrowly winning vbm's as well. The others and indies are probably breaking heavuly for us, I mean if they were not, this race would not even be in the vicinity of competitive.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #604 on: August 04, 2018, 06:34:17 PM »
« Edited: August 04, 2018, 06:55:01 PM by Ebsy »

I have a sneak peak for tomorrow's numbers (actually today, you know what I mean), where in Franklin County, Democrats turned in 849 (55%) ballots to 402 Other ballots, with Republicans coming in a distant third with 296 (19%) ballots. This was driven by a massive 664 Dem to 159 GOP lead among in person absentees. Looking like the surge is real!
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Hindsight was 2020
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« Reply #605 on: August 04, 2018, 06:52:12 PM »

I have a sneak peak for tomorrow's numbers, where in Franklin County, Democrats turned in 849 (55%) ballots to 402 Other ballots, with Republicans coming in a distant third with 296 (19%) ballots. This was driven by a massive 664 Dem to 159 GOP lead among in person absentees. Looking like the surge is real!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #606 on: August 04, 2018, 07:27:04 PM »

Great post as always, Nova. Let me offer some trivia, being familiar with the county, albeit not a resident.

Granville is the home of Dennison University, and not-coincidentally quite Democratic. It regularly appears as a (non-Atlas) blue splotch on an otherwise largely red election map.

Reynoldsburg in the SW is split. Democrats failed in 2015 in a major push to win the mayoral race and council majority, but it votes Democratic at the presidential and federal level. It's a city where Republicans years are numbered at the local level. However, the city is actually divided between Licking, Fairfield, and Franklin Counties, and the Licking County portion is IIRC at least somewhat more Republican than the City as a whole. I'm tempted to say O'Conner needs to win the district's portion of Reynoldsburg, or at least come real close, to win the race.

Between annexation and suburban growth, Pataskala has become the second largest city in the county after Newark. It's still reliably Republican, though not quite as overwhelmingly as before.

If O'Connor wins Reynoldsburg and Newark, even narrowly, he should be alright.

Let's take a look at the other Cities / Larger Townships within Licking County:

Granville Township:

Tends to skew a bit younger (College Students?) but still with a fairly high % of residents 35-54 Yrs. MHI = $ 92.8k / YR (Upper Middle-Class). Educated 67% with degree > HS. Occupations- 16% Education (!!!)



So this is very interesting...  Obama actually did significantly worse here than Kerry or Clinton, and 'Pubs carried it by ~ +10% in '08 and '12 and it was basically virtually tied in '04 and '16.

I don't know what the % of the student vote was in the Township versus Granville City, but still one would imagine that the Township is a place where O'Connor might well break even.

Heath- Ohio--- Pop 10.4k--- 6% of County Vote Share

Skews Middle-Aged and Older. MHI $43.7k/Yr. 91% White. 27.1% Degree > HS, Occupations skew heavily working-class (Material Mvmt, Food Services, Transportation, Repair) as well as "pink collar" (Administrative).



So again we have a City in the district with a fairly decent proportion of Obama > Trump voters, as well as a decent % of Kerry '04 voters (40%).

The question remains to what extent O'Connor will be able to get close to the 40% Dem Vote here, to keep overall PUB margins low in the Cities of Licking County.

Now, let's look at the larger population centers of SW Licking County (I already previously covered Reynoldsburg precincts within Licking County).

Pataskala- Pop 15.0k- 9.0% of Licking County Vote Share



So as we can see from the satellite imagery, this City is actually basically the equivalent of an entire township, with a mixture of suburban neighborhoods in the SW corner of the "City", and more clustered population in the Eastern Central part of the "City", with some smaller developments dotted around along some of the main roads, some nice ritzy semi-rural Exurban homes scattered around, and even some farms mixed in around the "City".

Let's look at the age breakdown of Pataskala:



So interestingly enough we actually see a fairly decent cluster of the population clustered in that 25-54 Year Old range, and perhaps most significantly within the context of this election, a very high concentration in the 25-39 Yr age bracket (23%). These voters will likely be critical in determining the overall margins within the City this coming Tuesday.

MHI- $ 65.6k /Yr with 55% of the Households making > $60k/Yr.

Education: 34.1% > HS Degree

Occupations:




So interestingly enough the occupations are a bit all over the place--- one the one hand you have a pretty decent White Collar representation in generally high paying occupations (Business and Management), but you also have a decent representation of relatively decent paying Blue Collar Occupations (Transportation & Construction), and also a hefty chunk of "Pink Collar" occupations (Administrative & Social Services).

Enough of this---- how has Pataskala been voting in recent Presidential Elections?



So, once again we see a pretty decent contingent of Obama '08 / Obama '12 /Trump '16 voters within Pataskala. HRC pretty much destroyed all of the gains that Democrats had made since '04, significantly under-performing John Kerry. On the flip side, although Trump bagged 61% of the Vote in 2016, he still performed worse than George W. Bush in his re-election campaign in 2004.

If O'Connor can revive the Obama '08/'12 coalition in Pataskala of educated Upper-Income voters, and more traditionally working class occupations, he might be able to keep PUB margins down to +12-15% in the Special Election.

As an Exurban Columbus community, one might imagine this would be a place where we could see some major swings compared to the 2016 US PRES results.

Etna Township- Pop 16.3k- 5% of 2016 Vote Share



Those giant white buildings you see in the Center of the Township is a major Amazon Fulfillment Center, and having worked in an FC before for another company, I know how rigorous Warehouse Work can be with 7x24 Hour Operations running 10-12 Hour shifts frequently the industry norm.

Age: 10% 65+, 10% (55-64), 33% (35-54) (!!!), 19% (18-34), 28% (0-17).

Wow--- look at that concentration in the 0-17 Yrs and 35-54 Yrs!!!!

Race/Ethnicity: 78.6% White, 13.9% Black, 2.9% Latino, 2.3% Mixed, 2.0% Asian

Cool--- finally we get a place in Licking County where the Brothers and Sisters are properly represented! This trend will likely continue, considering that the African-American population is most heavily concentrated in both the younger age bracket (0-17 Yrs), as well as the Millennial and Middle-Aged demographic brackets.

Education: 39.1% with Degree > HS.   Township is a bit more Educated than average.

MHI: $ 75.7k/Yr

Occupations:



Hmm interesting--- we see an extremely high level of White Collar highly compensated occupations, compared to what I was expecting.

We do have a decent range of Blue Collar occupations in Transportation and Repair, as well as a slightly higher proportion of occupations in Administrative and Sales than the norm.

How did Etna Township Vote in the 2004 to 2016 US-PRES elections?



So, interestingly enough Etna Township in *Theory* should be significantly more Democratic than Pataskala City, when looking at everything from MHI, Education, Occupations, and Race/Ethnicity.

This is obviously not the case.

To say that Etna Township is solidly Republican would likely be a significant understatement....

Obama only kept the PUBS down to 62% of the Total Presidential Vote in '08/'12. John Kerry only captured 1/3 votes and DJT even exceeded GHWB '04 PUB % in Etna Township.

I don't know why exactly this Township has been so consistently Republican, but it is pretty clear that White voters tend to vote overwhelmingly Republican at all age, income, and occupation levels, compared to most of the larger population centers of Licking County.

O'Connor will be lucky to keep the PUB margins here down to +20% R.

Harrison Township - Pop 7.6k- 6% of Licking County Vote Share.



Ok--- Looking at the satellite imagery, this Township is an interesting smorgasbord of decent sized Exurban Housing Developments around places like Beechwood Trails, as well as smaller sub-divisions along many of the local roads, throw in a quite a bit of what looks like farming areas (Although as a former OH resident, sometimes these farms are really a part-time gig for local farmers that have other day jobs and just make some extra bucks hiring a few people to run the agricultural tools during key parts of the season).

Age: Pop is extremely young 23% (0-17 Years), Millennials under-represented 14% (18-34 Yrs), 33% (35-54 Yrs),

Race/Ethnicity: 97.6% White

Much more lily White than most of the rest of Licking County, which has a pretty low rate of ethnic/racial diversity compared to many of the other medium-sized Counties within Ohio.

MHI: $ 77.2k/Yr

Not bad at all, and considerably higher than the Statewide Average.

Education: 38.9% > HS Diploma

Occupations:



So again, we see a pretty high share the work-force in relatively highly compensated White Collar Occupations (Legal, Mgmt, Business, Science, Computers/Math, etc)....

Interestingly enough we see the highest % of the work-force that are Firefighters of almost any place I've delved into in OH CD-12. We also see a higher rate of Educational Occupations than in many other places, so sounds like we have some Union Teachers floating around in Harrison Township (?).

How did Harrison Township Vote for PRES '04 > '16?



So.... if Etna Township is a tough nut to crack for O'Connor, Harrison Township is an even tougher nut.

On paper both Etna and Harrison Townships look like the types of places where we might expect to see significant Dem shifts within the context of the Trump era, but the reality is that voters in these two townships have not yet exhibited any tendency to indicate a large proportion of persuadable and swing voters that could dramatically change Republican margins.

Maybe Danny O'Connor could do it with the Irish family name:

Harrison Township: 16.1% Irish Ancestry
Etna Township: 17.9% Irish Ancestry
Pataskala City: 14.9% Irish Ancestry
Heath: 17.7% Irish Ancestry
Newark: 16.1% Irish Ancestry

Where I'm going with this is that within the context of Ohio and within Metro-Columbus, the Irish-Americans have faced systematic discrimination in terms of Housing, Employment, etc, and only in the 1960s and 1970s started to move into the Middle-Class without the stigma of Ethnicity and Religion (Huh) being a cudgel used to stop their advancement.

Although I tend not to dwell too much on Religious Affiliation (Plus the data is more obscure to pull down by a County/City level), the reality is that White Catholics (Especially "White Ethnics") have traditionally tended to be the major swing voters in Presidential Elections over the past xxx decades.

One must also wonder to what extent Danny O'Connor might be portrayed as part of the Franklin County Democratic machine in suburban/exurban Columbus Precincts.

Still, Irish-Americans tend to self-identify as overwhelmingly Catholic, and Pope Francis has moved the needle significantly to the Global Left on a wide variety of political issues, which is increasingly impacting the Catholic Community within the United States, when it comes to issues such as economic justice and inequality, environmental issues, immigration and social change within the wealthy nations of Europe and North America, etc...

Even Social Issues such as Reproductive Rights (Birth Control), Divorce, and LGBTQ Equality have been re-framed by the Vatican within the era of Pope Francis.

I have no idea to what extent if any this will have an impact in the OH CD-12 Special Election, but still I wonder to what extent Danny O'Connor will significantly over-perform in certain precincts and communities with a High % of traditional "White Ethnic Catholic Swing Voters" this coming Tuesday.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #607 on: August 04, 2018, 07:35:34 PM »

I have a sneak peak for tomorrow's numbers, where in Franklin County, Democrats turned in 849 (55%) ballots to 402 Other ballots, with Republicans coming in a distant third with 296 (19%) ballots. This was driven by a massive 664 Dem to 159 GOP lead among in person absentees. Looking like the surge is real!
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #608 on: August 04, 2018, 08:02:42 PM »

For those who asked:



As expected, vote by Mail narrowly favor GOP registrees, but Democrats are dominating among In-Person returns.

I believe I was one of those who asked... Wink

These ABS Vote-by-Mail numbers are astounding for Democrats within OH CD-12.

So 26k Voters in OH CD-12 thus far and VbMs are virtually tied (Excluding New Voters), and In-Person votes are +3k Dem (Excluding New Voters).

I'll take it considering that ball-park napkin math appears to indicate that O'Connor is up +5k Dem in Raw Vote Margins as a Conservative guesstimate....

Additional Please, Please, Please request or....

So... the OH CD-12 County EV files that you pull have detailed data that include voting address, which obviously overlaps with political jurisdictions....

Is there any way for you to easily amalgamate the data to at least break down the EV numbers by County for ABS-VbM vs ABS-IVO?

Additionally, not to get to cray cray on the request, it might also be interesting if it was easily possible to pull some numbers by City/Political Jurisdiction....

Ebsy---- You totally rock for doing all of this, especially since I know that you have spent a ton of time manually consolidating this data on a daily basis from local County election websites!!!!

Obviously I have some pet reasons to ask for more details, especially when it comes to looking at the various Municipalities and Jurisdictions with OH CD-12, where in theory we could potentially overlap the EV numbers to date with historical election US-PRES results to start looking at stuff like Turnout Modeling, Swings, Enthusiasm Gap, etc, combined with how these voters voted in the last GE Primary.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #609 on: August 04, 2018, 08:39:06 PM »

If you're a Republican, you DON'T want VBM to be favoring your party "narrowly."



Hate to empty quote.... but still it's the reality within this particular US-House District.

As I have previously stated, key question would obviously be to what extent the DEMs are Cannibalizing their EV numbers when it comes to VbM vs IvO....

Now, secondary question would be to what extent the EV/ED Votes will shift as an overall percentage of the Total Vote Types within CD-12?

If the total vote % shifts more towards an ED % of TV TO (Turnout) scenario, then in theory this *should* benefit the Pubs....

Still, I question the overall logic within the context of an "Off-Year Special Election" when it comes to TO modelling system in a competitive election environment  where we have no previous modelling systems in recent years to account for a Democratic win within the precincts of this District.

Obviously I would much rather take a large EV lead that accounts for 5k+ Dem ballots within an Ancestral PUB Urban/Suburban/Exurban District, especially within the context of what is likely to be a relatively low turnout election.

Anybody on Atlas care to throw out an estimated Turnout Model for the OH CD-12 SE?

I don't yet, but can obviously pull total TO numbers for OH CD-12 by County from '04 > '16 for ALL Federal and Statewide Elections within Ohio.... I love the Buckeye State and the transparency when it comes to detailed historical precinct level results.    Smiley
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IceSpear
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« Reply #610 on: August 04, 2018, 09:37:29 PM »

GOP in D I S A R R A Y



Wow, that was pathetic. The media would put this on constant loop if it was a Democrat literally running away when asked about Pelosi.
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wjx987
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« Reply #611 on: August 04, 2018, 09:37:56 PM »

I was in the district two days ago, and while its entirely anecdotal, I did see several Balderson signs and no O'Connor signs (I was south of Mansfield). I was also in OH-7 and saw a Harbaugh sign but that's neither here nor there.
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ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn
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« Reply #612 on: August 04, 2018, 10:00:22 PM »

I was in the district two days ago, and while it's entirely anecdotal, I did see several Balderson signs and no O'Connor signs (I was south of Mansfield). I was also in OH-7 and saw a Harbaugh sign but that's neither here nor there.
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junior chįmp
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« Reply #613 on: August 04, 2018, 10:29:34 PM »

Lol

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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #614 on: August 04, 2018, 10:35:02 PM »

Lol



Just like that "Blacks for Trump" guy, most of his rallies are just the same cultists who travel across the country to support him.
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #615 on: August 04, 2018, 10:47:20 PM »

I do not want to have to read through all the propaganda even if it is correct.

I would like one question answered. 

That is are the tables on who has voted based on the primary vote or non vote of the voter this year or 2016 or is it based on some type of registration form?
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #616 on: August 04, 2018, 11:07:33 PM »

I do not want to have to read through all the propaganda even if it is correct.

I would like one question answered. 

That is are the tables on who has voted based on the primary vote or non vote of the voter this year or 2016 or is it based on some type of registration form?


Propaganda? What propaganda??
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #617 on: August 04, 2018, 11:40:16 PM »

I do not want to have to read through all the propaganda even if it is correct.

I would like one question answered. 

That is are the tables on who has voted based on the primary vote or non vote of the voter this year or 2016 or is it based on some type of registration form?


Propaganda? What propaganda??
You know exactly what I mean.  It is gaged as election analysis.   Otherwise I do not want to read through all the election analysis of the folks posted here for this particular race pro either side.  I have not engaged in any election analysis or propaganda concerning this race.

I would just like the question answered.

Sometimes it is good to just be quiet and listen and watch.
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #618 on: August 04, 2018, 11:53:14 PM »

That is are the tables on who has voted based on the primary vote or non vote of the voter this year or 2016 or is it based on some type of registration form?

To answer your question, the parties in the chart are based on their last primary vote (2018/2016, mostly 2018) as Ohio does not have partisan registration.

Dems = Dem primary voter in their last primary
Reps = Republican primary voter in their last primary
Others = new voters, minor party primary voters, or those who have never voted in a primary
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #619 on: August 04, 2018, 11:58:58 PM »

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usally varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #620 on: August 05, 2018, 12:00:09 AM »

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usally varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

I am expecting closer 100k-110k based on the early vote.
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Ohioguy29
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« Reply #621 on: August 05, 2018, 12:02:02 AM »


So, interestingly enough Etna Township in *Theory* should be significantly more Democratic than Pataskala City, when looking at everything from MHI, Education, Occupations, and Race/Ethnicity.

This is obviously not the case.

...

On paper both Etna and Harrison Townships look like the types of places where we might expect to see significant Dem shifts within the context of the Trump era, but the reality is that voters in these two townships have not yet exhibited any tendency to indicate a large proportion of persuadable and swing voters that could dramatically change Republican margins.


Let me chime in here and note that if you look at the exit polls from Ohio, educated voters did not swing towards Clinton on the whole, and did not vote for Clinton more heavily than uneducated voters. I think once you broke it down by race, white voters with a college degree were a whole 4 points more Democratic than voters without a college degree in 2016 in Ohio. Nothing to write home about. And of course, in the Obama era educated, white collar voters were less Democratic than uneducated, blue collar voters.

There were some educated areas who swung and most of them were in OH-12. However, as far as I can tell Licking County wasn't part of this; it was mainly Franklin and Delaware.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #622 on: August 05, 2018, 12:03:17 AM »

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usually varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

I am expecting closer 100k-110k based on the early vote.

What was the early vote in recent elections in OH, as a percentage of the total vote ?
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« Reply #623 on: August 05, 2018, 12:16:27 AM »

GOP in D I S A R R A Y



Wow, that was pathetic. The media would put this on constant loop if it was a Democrat literally running away when asked about Pelosi.
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136or142
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« Reply #624 on: August 05, 2018, 12:20:28 AM »

So, what turnout can we expect alltogether ?

Turnout usally varies a lot in special elections (from 35.000 in the recent TX election to about 400.000 in the MT election last year). Usually, it seems to be around 150.000-250.000 recently (PA, AZ, GA).

But considering it's summer time and many people are on vacation, I think this election will be close to 150.000, so the early vote (30.000) would make up ca. 1/5th of all votes.

Montana is the largest Congressional district by population.
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