OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

O'Connor has a higher favorable rating amongst independents than Balderson does, so we can imagine he's taking the other vote.

[BudgieForce]

I do remember listening to interviews in 2016, right before the Ohio primary, about a bunch of democrats who were fine with Hillary being the nominee so they crossed over and voted for Kasich to try and stop Trump. There was also some speculation that one of the reasons Hillary beat Bernie in Ohio by such a lopsided margin was due to these democrats crossing over since many of them could have been Sanders supporters.

[Badger]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

This is based on who folks voted for in 2016, so it's possible that some Democratic and left leaning Independents that crossed over to vote for Kasich against Trump would be counted as Republicans.

Not to mention even if you're talking about only 2% out of close to 40, that would be an insanely low number of Republicans flipping and even a typical race. Hell, I think Hillary got at least that kind of a share of the Republican vote. Considering balderson has spent a significant amount of his campaign running as a Foursquare trumpist, and Ohio 12 is not exactly Trump friendly territory, I strongly suspect he'll do significantly better than that.

That said, balderson is also been running as a pragmatic problem solver, which only means he's been not a complete bomb thrower in the legislature like Jim Jordan was. However it may be enough to keep the needed number of Republican leaning voters with him on Election Day.

Republicans are damn lucky they for once avoided the extremist candidate by turning down leneghan. This rate would be downright lean D if she were the nominee.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Guys, the party registration numbers are based on the 2018 primary, not the 2016 one.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Guys, the party registration numbers are based on the 2018 primary, not the 2016 one.

Unless someone voted in the 2016 primary and not the 2018 primary.

[Ebsy]

Guys, the party registration numbers are based on the 2018 primary, not the 2016 one.

Unless someone voted in the 2016 primary and not the 2018 primary.

Yes, it is based on the most recent primary.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Typical GOP-using unethical, dirty, deplorable tactics.

[Badger]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

I forgot to ask yesterday. Link?

[NOVA Green]

Yesterday I posted some data for Licking County as well as the largest City Newark to see what the numbers might indicate regarding the Obama '08 and Obama '12 voters who swung hard to Trump within the County in the upcoming Ohio US House CD-12 might do.

We saw that Obama narrowly lost Newark in '08, narrowly won it in '12, and it swung to Trump by +20% in 2016!

Now let's look at the overall Vote Share by place within Licking County.



What is chart tells us is that there are actually quite a decent percentage of the County population that resides in a relatively small number of Cities, and a few larger higher density townships.

Here's a Licking County Township city/map that has 62% of the County Vote Share bordered with a darker Black border.

Yesterday I posted some data for Licking County as well as the largest City Newark to see what the numbers might indicate regarding the Obama '08 and Obama '12 voters who swung hard to Trump within the County in the upcoming Ohio US House CD-12 might do.



What is chart tells us is that there are actually quite a decent percentage of the County population that resides in a relatively small number of Cities, and a few larger higher density townships.

These are clustered in two areas:

1.) SW-Licking which is fairly exurban Columbus
2.) The City of Newark and surrounding suburbs.

Here's a Licking County City/Township Map that illustrates this, with these two areas illustrated by a darker border...



Now let's look at the US-PRES 2004 to 2016 breakdown by "City" and "Rural" precincts within the County, and the Total Vote Margin.



Although we don't really have any recent history of "Ancestral Democratic" major strengths in Licking County, we do see that there are quite a few Obama '08 / Obama '12 / Trump '16 voters in both the "Cities" and "Rural" areas....

In the SW Licking & "Metro Newark" areas Obama was able to keep Republican raw vote margins extremely low in both '08 and '12, only +3.5- 4.6k Republican....

This would obviously the path for O'Connor to try to minimize over Republican margins in Licking County....

I doubt we'll see nearly as much movement in the rural parts of Licking County this coming Tuesday where there are simply a ton of Bush W. / McCain / Romney / Trump voters....

Here's a vote by City/Rural Graph as a % of US PRES by Party 2004 to 2016 to further illustrate the point:



Licking County RAW VOTE MARGINS matter, and former Kerry/Obama/Obama/Trump voters in the Cities/exurbs of the County might be a decent shake to keep down Balderson numbers in Licking and flip the District in a few days or November...

[Badger]

Great post as always, Nova. Let me offer some trivia, being familiar with the county, albeit not a resident.

Granville is the home of Dennison University, and not-coincidentally quite Democratic. It regularly appears as a (non-Atlas) blue splotch on an otherwise largely red election map.

Reynoldsburg in the SW is split. Democrats failed in 2015 in a major push to win the mayoral race and council majority, but it votes Democratic at the presidential and federal level. It's a city where Republicans years are numbered at the local level. However, the city is actually divided between Licking, Fairfield, and Franklin Counties, and the Licking County portion is IIRC at least somewhat more Republican than the City as a whole. I'm tempted to say O'Conner needs to win the district's portion of Reynoldsburg, or at least come real close, to win the race.

Between annexation and suburban growth, Pataskala has become the second largest city in the county after Newark. It's still reliably Republican, though not quite as overwhelmingly as before.

If O'Connor wins Reynoldsburg and Newark, even narrowly, he should be alright.

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats picked up a city council seat in Reynoldsburg by the skin of their teeth last year even as they lost in Bexley and Upper Arligton — I think O’Connor will do okay.

Citation on shady campaign to tell people their polling location has changed.

Also worth noting: Cordray won Licking in 2008. This is one of the areas he has historically outperformed. Similarly, former Congressman Zack Space, who is running for Auditor, used to represent a good portion of Licking County, and won it in both 2006 and 2008.

[IceSpear]

It'll be a real heartbreaker if O'Connor narrowly loses thanks to Manchik (G-Moscow)

[Landslide Lyndon]

It'll be a real heartbreaker if O'Connor narrowly loses thanks to Manchik (G-Moscow)

Only alt-left nihilists and Putin's useful idiots would vote Green in today's environment.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There are plenty of seats, as well as this to take House MAJORITY, I wouldnt fret over thos seat, if its a narrow loss; as a result, Nov will be much friendlier, anyways.

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats winning OH-12 will cause more national resources to pour in, despite our voting for Trump over Hillary by 8%, and will also fire up the base bigly. More resources and a fired up base improve the chances of Cordray and the rest winning this November, and you want that to happen for two reasons.

1: Democrats will control redistricting, giving national Democrats a good many more opportunities in the House come 2022.
2: It will improve the chances of a major swing back to Democrats come 2020, as there will be a statewide infrastructure in place.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It'll be a real heartbreaker if O'Connor narrowly loses thanks to Manchik (G-Moscow)

The Green Party in Franklin County often runs Republican plants who are literally trying to throw elections (most notably Bob Fitrakis), so...

[BuckeyeNut]

Fitrakis is a lot of things, and I hate him, but a Republican plant is a bit far. He's on the Green Party's national committee.

--

Interesting piece in the WSJ about the race.

TL;DR: "Balderson has been an 'unsteady campaigner' who has "struggled to raise money and is failing to motivate GOP voters." Stivers, the National Republican Congressional Committee chair who represents the neighboring 15th District, urged Balderson last month to spend more time fundraising and less time on his Ohio Senate duties. Balderson “said he isn’t aware of Washington angst about his fundraising."

[Badger]

Democrats picked up a city council seat in Reynoldsburg by the skin of their teeth last year even as they lost in Bexley and Upper Arligton — I think O’Connor will do okay.

Citation on shady campaign to tell people their polling location has changed.

Also worth noting: Cordray won Licking in 2008. This is one of the areas he has historically outperformed. Similarly, former Congressman Zack Space, who is running for Auditor, used to represent a good portion of Licking County, and won it in both 2006 and 2008.

Thanks for the link. Though there is nothing in the story saying that these text we're being sent by a balderson connected group as the original post reporting this stated.

That said, I think it's fair to assume that this isn't just three or four Wingnuts who spontaneously got together in their basement one night and said hey , I've got a great idea...

[BuckeyeNut]

Democrats picked up a city council seat in Reynoldsburg by the skin of their teeth last year even as they lost in Bexley and Upper Arligton — I think O’Connor will do okay.

Citation on shady campaign to tell people their polling location has changed.

Also worth noting: Cordray won Licking in 2008. This is one of the areas he has historically outperformed. Similarly, former Congressman Zack Space, who is running for Auditor, used to represent a good portion of Licking County, and won it in both 2006 and 2008.

Thanks for the link. Though there is nothing in the story saying that these text we're being sent by a balderson connected group as the original post reporting this stated.

That said, I think it's fair to assume that this isn't just three or four Wingnuts who spontaneously got together in their basement one night and said hey , I've got a great idea...

I should have clarified that part was an inference. From what I’ve heard on people on the ground, it was definitely targetted at people in Clintonville.

Also the funny thing about picking up the Reynoldsburg City Council seat is that it was done by running up the score in the Licking County portion. Not by winning big in Franklin.

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



Both Democrats and Republicans fell in returns relative to yesterday, with "Other" voters comprising a high of 20% of absentee returns. I peeked ahead at some of today's returns, and the pattern of returns looked a lot different from previous days, with Others making up a much larger share, so I would expect their share to increase through the weekend. I do not know if county boards will be updating their counts throughout voting this weekend, so there may not be another update until Monday.

[Ebsy]

Trump's Saturday rally has been moved from Newark in Licking County to Orange Township in Delaware County, right on the border with Franklin County. Make of this what you will.

[Arkansas Yankee]

The question is will Trump discover like most other Presidents that visits in midterms usually drive up the opposition more than supporters.

I astually not sure these trials will not aggravate Trump supporters.  My wife is getting really mad.  The trials have nothing to do with Russiagate.   They Involve old facts on which the Obama Justice Department declined to prosecute.  In some cases they failed to prosecute because Obama supporters were also involved.

[Ebsy]

Question for NOVA Green: is there any way to look at the results for say 2016 by vote type (VBM, In person absentee, election day) so that it can be compared against those groups of voters partisanship?

[Bidenworth2020]

The question is will Trump discover like most other Presidents that visits in midterms usually drive up the opposition more than supporters.

I astually not sure these trials will not aggravate Trump supporters.  My wife is getting really mad.  The trials have nothing to do with Russiagate.   They Involve old facts on which the Obama Justice Department declined to prosecute.  In some cases they failed to prosecute because Obama supporters were also involved.

Is your wife a conservative like you?

[Ebsy]

So, we have been operating under the assumption that O'Connor needs to open up a massive lead in the early vote in order to overcome a large GOP edge on election day, which is the conventional wisdom in Ohio. There has been dithering about just how large, but the prior assumption here is what is important. However, when you go back and look at the partisanship of the 2016 electorate and compare it to now, the numbers paint a different picture.

In OH-12* in 2016, Democrats only enjoyed a small partisanship** advantage from the early vote compared to the election day vote, getting 22.6% in early ballots to 20.6% on election day. The GOP comprised 36.6 of the early vote electorate and 38% of the election day vote, with Other voters outnumbering both parties in both voting periods. The actual margin difference between early voters and election day voters was only 3.4 points in favor the Democrats, not exactly a gigantic margin. Additionally, if you assume Other voters split roughly 50/50, with a slight edge to the GOP, you end up very near the expected result for a Republican in this district.

What does this tell us? Democrats' performance in the early vote thus far is extremely anamalous, and while it is expected that Republicans will gain a couple more points, Democrats are going to end up at least twice their normal vote share, with Republicans under where they usually are. There is also the expectation that Other voters are going to buck trends and break towards O'Connor. We also now have considerable reason to doubt that the election day electorate is going to be nearly as Republican as has been suggested, as past election results indicate that it was not in 2016. Of course, Democrats could be abnormally banking their votes in this district, but we have no evidence of that one way or the other.

*Excluding Richland and Morrow Counties
**Partisanship figures are current as of the 2018 primary