OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 05:55:33 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 ... 71
Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 107127 times)
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #450 on: July 31, 2018, 12:11:11 AM »


Dems are outperforming OH CD-12 EV numbers compared to the 2016 Presidential Election significantly in Franklin County.... Additionally much more so than the relatively low-turnout 2014 OH General Election that was pretty much only Statewide and local candidates, with the exception of US House races.

What makes the '14 > '18 EV numbers to date in Franklin County most interesting , is how well Democrats are performing in the Early Vote numbers overall in an "Off-Year Election", (Even more so a Special Election for a US House seat).

Absentee ballots in Off-Year elections in Franklin County CD-12 tend to skew heavily Mail-in-Ballots (ABS-PAPER), which are Much More Republican than a much smaller share of Early In-Person-Voting (ABS-IVO) compared to GE Years....

Sure, it could just be Democratic EV cannibalism, but there is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to massive DEM+ Other margins in EV overall numbers within Franklin County, which accounts for typically about 35% of the Total Vote Share....

Perhaps even more significantly, the EV numbers from Delaware County are pretty mind-boggling by any standard, and could well indicate the 80% of Delaware County that are Suburban/Exurban Columbus (In addition to Delaware City which I still have some major questions on that nobody has yet answered), are expanding upon the +15-20% Dem swings we saw between '12 and '16...

Rock-Ribbed Upper Incomes 'Burbs of Delaware County are looking potentially shaky, just like the Rock-Ribbed Upper Incomes 'Burbs of South Allegheny did in January of this Year...

Ebsy would likely have better data when it comes to ABS-PAPER vs ABS-IVO numbers from Franklin County to date, and I thought was hoping for another County dump tonight on the servers, but looks like we'll have to wait for tomorrow for updated numbers... Sad

Other big thing to watch from our fellow Atlas posters following this closely on the thread, is that if we're going to get a big ABS-IVO dump it will likely happen this weekend, especially in the Cities/Burbs of Metro Columbus, so people won't have to deal with the Election Day voting gig, when you got a job to work, kids to pick up from school/daycare, stuck in rush hour traffic, and all the crap that gets in the way of wanting to stand an hour in line just to vote after all that for an off-year election... Smiley
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #451 on: July 31, 2018, 06:19:27 AM »

Trump has colluded with the enemy, but voting machines werent hacked. OH-12 is the perfect state to test if Dems are gonna expand that majority

We don't even have to win it to prove that we are viable as a team this november, we just need to keep it within 3 points to really prove it.

That's the way it will be spun, that Dems have trouble in Appalachia again, but the 273 blue wall is still alive

... like 36k of the +750k people living in OH-12 live in Appalachia. Why would this be the spin? Try thinking before you post.

Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #452 on: July 31, 2018, 09:58:18 AM »

Monmouth will have a poll of the race out tomorrow.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,805
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #453 on: July 31, 2018, 10:02:30 AM »

Probably Balderson +3 47-44
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #454 on: July 31, 2018, 11:40:02 AM »

End Citizens United has a new PPP poll out with Balderson at 48%, O'Connor at 44%. No testing of Manchik.

Balderson has basically been stuck at 48% since June while O'Connor's been slowly climbing up to the mid-40's from the low-40's. That said, O'Connor's never lead a poll, and Balderson's never topped 50%. What remains strange is that of the 7 publicly released polls, 5 have been internals.

Balderson's favored to win, and I'd call this Race Tilt R as it winds down, but it's strange that Balderson hasn't released any internals with a lead over 50%. He must not have any.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #455 on: July 31, 2018, 11:47:03 AM »

I think the Monmouth poll tomorrow will largely show a tie in their models ...

48-47-2 Balderson in their standard model and 48-48-2 in their surge model.

This is gonna be a really close race.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #456 on: July 31, 2018, 03:50:54 PM »

This is NOT today's update, and I will explain my reasoning below:



Up to this point, most of each day's early voting was captured in the daily reports I had been downloading and putting together, but now that early voting hours have extended, much more of each day's votes are occurring after the daily updates. Yesterday's vote totals went from 1117 to 2372 with all of the in person absentees, and it changed the composition of yesterday's ballots as well, with the massive number of ballots in Franklin pushing the Democrats from a 100 vote deficit to a 20 vote lead. Most of the change in the overall margin was from a higher share of Other voters in these later in person absentees. For these reasons, each daily report is going to be time-lagged by a day in order to fully capture all of the votes being cast. The July 31 update will be posted tomorrow, August 1. My apologies for any confusion.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderator
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #457 on: July 31, 2018, 03:58:19 PM »

This is NOT today's update, and I will explain my reasoning below:



Up to this point, most of each day's early voting was captured in the daily reports I had been downloading and putting together, but now that early voting hours have extended, much more of each day's votes are occurring after the daily updates. Yesterday's vote totals went from 1117 to 2372 with all of the in person absentees, and it changed the composition of yesterday's ballots as well, with the massive number of ballots in Franklin pushing the Democrats from a 100 vote deficit to a 20 vote lead. Most of the change in the overall margin was from a higher share of Other voters in these later in person absentees. For these reasons, each daily report is going to be time-lagged by a day in order to fully capture all of the votes being cast. The July 31 update will be posted tomorrow, August 1. My apologies for any confusion.

Suggested addition to the chart, if it's not too much trouble: a couple of columns showing each county's returned ballots and its population as a percentage of the 7-county total.
Logged
Co-Chair Bagel23
Bagel23
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,369
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: -1.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #458 on: July 31, 2018, 05:49:35 PM »

I'm growing increasingly confident in my Balderson 52-46 win. O'Connor's internals are showing him consistently 3-4 points down, so I make it a couple points more republican friendly for being a democratic internal poll and we get to a 6 point Balderson lead.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #459 on: July 31, 2018, 06:11:48 PM »

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

This. I went to a Republican party dinner during an odd-numbered year where this measure and several other ballot initiatives were all that were up for Statewide vote. Then Senate President Keith Faber, the current GOP nominee for auditor, Express the Republican party's views of the various initiatives. The support for this, IMHO, sorely lacking initiative was urged to be passed by good loyal Republicans in order to nip in the bud any more liberal measures like what they have in Arizona, or at least that was the example he gave.

For exactly the reasons Virginia gave, that reform is a weak pot of piss, and was backed solely to kill off real reform in the crib.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #460 on: July 31, 2018, 06:17:10 PM »

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Minor point of order. Hamilton County would have enough population for a single seat I believe.

Otherwise your points are valid, if not understand the problem. Franklin County may only be divided in three, but a quick look at the map shows just how incredibly badly it is split. The one entirely Franklin County District is a clear example of packing all the Democratic votes in one District. The rest of the County letter outside set District are still rather Democratic, but not so much that they aren't thoroughly diluted by dipping into literally six or seven other counties with Republican strongholds, with Ohio 12 being a primary example.
Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #461 on: July 31, 2018, 06:23:05 PM »


Dems are outperforming OH CD-12 EV numbers compared to the 2016 Presidential Election significantly in Franklin County.... Additionally much more so than the relatively low-turnout 2014 OH General Election that was pretty much only Statewide and local candidates, with the exception of US House races.

What makes the '14 > '18 EV numbers to date in Franklin County most interesting , is how well Democrats are performing in the Early Vote numbers overall in an "Off-Year Election", (Even more so a Special Election for a US House seat).

Absentee ballots in Off-Year elections in Franklin County CD-12 tend to skew heavily Mail-in-Ballots (ABS-PAPER), which are Much More Republican than a much smaller share of Early In-Person-Voting (ABS-IVO) compared to GE Years....

Sure, it could just be Democratic EV cannibalism, but there is nothing to sneeze at when it comes to massive DEM+ Other margins in EV overall numbers within Franklin County, which accounts for typically about 35% of the Total Vote Share....

Perhaps even more significantly, the EV numbers from Delaware County are pretty mind-boggling by any standard, and could well indicate the 80% of Delaware County that are Suburban/Exurban Columbus (In addition to Delaware City which I still have some major questions on that nobody has yet answered), are expanding upon the +15-20% Dem swings we saw between '12 and '16...

Rock-Ribbed Upper Incomes 'Burbs of Delaware County are looking potentially shaky, just like the Rock-Ribbed Upper Incomes 'Burbs of South Allegheny did in January of this Year...

Ebsy would likely have better data when it comes to ABS-PAPER vs ABS-IVO numbers from Franklin County to date, and I thought was hoping for another County dump tonight on the servers, but looks like we'll have to wait for tomorrow for updated numbers... Sad

Other big thing to watch from our fellow Atlas posters following this closely on the thread, is that if we're going to get a big ABS-IVO dump it will likely happen this weekend, especially in the Cities/Burbs of Metro Columbus, so people won't have to deal with the Election Day voting gig, when you got a job to work, kids to pick up from school/daycare, stuck in rush hour traffic, and all the crap that gets in the way of wanting to stand an hour in line just to vote after all that for an off-year election... Smiley


I will strongly encourage you as someone who is highly familiar with both, do not under any circumstances try to compare the South Hills of Pittsburgh with the Southern Delaware County suburbs.

That said, while before were limbs key to Victory, there is more than a little comparison between the Franklin County portion of Ohio 12 and the South Hills portion of old pa14. The big difference being that the suburbs of Columbus are trending Democratic, but are not nearly as so as the South Hills, even discounting Mount Lebanon. On the other hand there is no Democratic vote sink in the South Hills outside of Mount Lebanon compared to the Ohio 12 portion of Columbus.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #462 on: July 31, 2018, 06:33:57 PM »

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Minor point of order. Hamilton County would have enough population for a single seat I believe.


Otherwise your points are valid, if not understand the problem. Franklin County may only be divided in three, but a quick look at the map shows just how incredibly badly it is split. The one entirely Franklin County District is a clear example of packing all the Democratic votes in one District. The rest of the County letter outside set District are still rather Democratic, but not so much that they aren't thoroughly diluted by dipping into literally six or seven other counties with Republican strongholds, with Ohio 12 being a primary example.

Yeah, it would. Not more than one though. But still, if anything, that makes the fact that it's split all the more egregious.

--

And as for your other post, anything supported by Keith Faber is a mistake, and it is a favorite ploy of the Ohio Republican Party to attempt weaksauce reform before actual Ohioans do something transformational via ballot initiative. See also: marijuana legalization and PayDay Loan reform.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,562
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #463 on: July 31, 2018, 06:55:17 PM »

Trump has colluded with the enemy, but voting machines werent hacked. OH-12 is the perfect state to test if Dems are gonna expand that majority

Not really. There are plenty of better pickups in November. This race, along with prior House special elections, are really only important to gauge what kind of pickups the Democrats will gain as well as to prevent Trump bragging and media spin about Democrats' prospects of taking back the House being doomed.
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #464 on: July 31, 2018, 07:30:41 PM »



DCCC has taken a media buy of $284,000.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #465 on: July 31, 2018, 10:34:27 PM »

This was from about a week ago, but it shows what the early voted looked like in 2018 and in this year's primary.

Logged
Badger
badger
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 40,258
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #466 on: July 31, 2018, 11:05:22 PM »

[...]

Now, regarding redistricting in 2020 in time for the 2022 elections, it won't be a Democratic Gerrymander scenario, thanks to the Citizens of the great Buckeye State that overwhelmingly approved "Non-Partisan" Redistricting just a few Months back...

http://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/386839-ohio-voters-pass-redistricting-reform-initiative

Still, ANY 2020 redistricting maps in Ohio under the law, will definitely create a much more representative political balance in the US-House, regardless of legitimate VRA moral and statutory considerations....

[...]

I wouldn't go that far. As I remember it, this places some limits on splitting counties (?) and even requires votes from Democratic lawmakers to pass a decade-long map, but after going through an arbitrarily long process of votes, Republicans could in theory ram through a map by party-line vote that would as a whole probably be better than the current map but would only last for 4 years, at which point they could try to repeat the same process again. The reason this is supposed to be "better than nothing" is because, hypothetically, Democrats would be able to have a shot at flipping a chamber of the legislature and/or row offices relevant to the redistricting process (Gov+SoS+Auditor, I think) within that 4 years and then have a shot at a better map without having to wait a whole decade.

Let me put it this way. If this was comprehensive and true reform, they would have done something very similar to other states with actual fair redistricting. Instead, they chose a convoluted process that ultimately gives themselves a way to pass a rigged map, albeit maybe not quite as rigged as before and not for as long as before. Someone smarter than I could speak to exactly how gerrymandered a 4 year map could get.

Right now, only two counties have more than a whole CD's worth of people living in them: Cuyahoga and Franklin County. However, right now, of the ten most populous counties:

Franklin County is split in 3 (2 live in the county)
Cuyahoga County is split in 4 (1 lives in the county)
Hamilton County is split in 2 (both live in the county)
Summit County is split in 4 (none live in the county)
Lucas County is split in 2 (1 lives in the county)
Stark County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Lorain County is split in 3 (none live in the county)
Mahoning County is split in 2 (none live in the county)

And then you have even smaller counties which have no business being split:

Trumbull County is split in 2 (pop. 210k)
Medina County is split in 2 (pop. 176k)
Portage County is split in 3 (pop. 161k)
Richland County is split in 2 (pop. 124k)
Tuscawaras County is split in 2 (pop. 92k)
Muskingum County is split in 2 (pop. 86k)
Scioto County is split in 2 (pop. 79k)
Ross County is split in 2 (pop. 78k)
Erie County is split in 2 (pop. 77k)
Marion County is split in 2 (pop. 66k)
Huron County is split in 2 (pop. 59k)
Ottawa County is split in 2 (pop. 41k)
Mercer County is split in 3 (pop. 40k)
Fayette County is split in 2 (pop. 29k)

Of course, we'll never have a map with no county splits, but the majority of these are unnecessary and only serve to split communities of interests in attempts to crack votes.

Minor point of order. Hamilton County would have enough population for a single seat I believe.


Otherwise your points are valid, if not understand the problem. Franklin County may only be divided in three, but a quick look at the map shows just how incredibly badly it is split. The one entirely Franklin County District is a clear example of packing all the Democratic votes in one District. The rest of the County letter outside set District are still rather Democratic, but not so much that they aren't thoroughly diluted by dipping into literally six or seven other counties with Republican strongholds, with Ohio 12 being a primary example.

Yeah, it would. Not more than one though. But still, if anything, that makes the fact that it's split all the more egregious.

--

And as for your other post, anything supported by Keith Faber is a mistake, and it is a favorite ploy of the Ohio Republican Party to attempt weaksauce reform before actual Ohioans do something transformational via ballot initiative. See also: marijuana legalization and PayDay Loan reform.

Marijuana legalization is totally true. We had a meeting of our County Republican committee where our local state representative asked us to accept him voting in favor of the current medical marijuana system without rebelling. he would back the proposed Bill explicitly as part of a very concrete plan from the GOP leadership to forestall any actual larger legalization reforms, or even medical marijuana reforms that might not just be outright weak tea. He even talked about the political implications of saying no to kids in wheelchairs. That was apparently a concern than actually helping ill people, which made me kind of sick but, whatever...

Payday lending I'm not so sure about to be honest. The initiative passed back in 06 I believe or 08 was very much from the left. Unfortunately, payday lenders got around it bye relabeling themselves as title companies or something where they could still charge these outrageous loans. I believe that the most recently passed Incarnation is, from what I've read, some genuine reform. I'll gladly be corrected on that point if anyone is more knowledgeable, though.
Logged
NOVA Green
Oregon Progressive
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,418
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #467 on: August 01, 2018, 01:04:52 AM »

Now that I've spent tons of time and thread space focusing on two major counties (Franklin and Delaware) that collectively account for 60% of the CD-12 Vote Share between '12 and '16, both of which are overwhelmingly dominated by the City, Suburbs, and Exurbs of Metro Columbus, it's time to pivot over to another County that accounts for ~20% of the Vote Share of CD-12, as part of the "Tale of Two Cities" or in this case "The Tale of Two Ohios"...

Licking County could well play a significant role not only in any potential Democratic upset in this particular CD, but perhaps more significantly as a representative of a fairly Republican County in Ohio, where Obama performed quite well in both 2008 and 2012.



I could also throw in a chart of what these actual % changes look like in terms of raw vote margins, but suffice to say that in a GE PRES election in 2012 Obama lost Licking by ~ 12k votes versus HRC losing by ~ 24k Votes, so even in a pretty solidly 'Pub County at the PRES level significant changes on the % margins make a HUGE deal, even in relatively low turnout OH-State and US-House elections.

Now let's look at the overall Licking County Votes for US-Senate between '04 and '16...



So right here, we can see that even Prior to Obama's performance as the DEM-PRES candidate in '08 and '12, we see Sherrod Brown almost tied with Mike Dewine in the '06 US-SEN battle.

Even in the 2014 race for OH- State Treasurer, we see the Dem capture 39% of the vote, in an extremely Republican Year within Ohio.

Ok---- let's take a brief look at Licking County Ohio... (I know most of y'all that post on here are seasoned vets, so apologize my running some Demographic numbers for the lurkers both within and outside of Atlas... Wink  )

Licking County--- OHIO

Pop: 167.0k
Race/Ethnicity: 92.2% Anglo-American, 3.3% African-American.
MHI: $55.1k/Yr
Education: 30.0% > HS Diploma, 59.2% HS Diploma
Age: 14% > 65+ Yrs, 21% 50-64 Yrs, 20% 35-49/Yrs, 19% 18-34/Yrs

Educational Attainment Breakdown:



Relative Occupational Breakdown:



So--- anyone starting to see why Licking Counties and others like this in Ohio can be extremely swingy despite an inherent Republican lean?

Overall the County is relatively well educated in terms of post high-school degrees, including the much vaunted Working-Class ideal of getting a practical Vocational/Professional Two Year Degree that translates almost immediately into a decent job, and not being stuck in Mountains of student loan debt.

NOW: Where are the Voters located within the District in terms of comparative Vote-Share?

I'll start with just the largest City within Licking, County....

Newark, OH--- 22.8% of Licking County Vote Share 2016 PRES

Pop: 47.7k (29.0% of County Population)
Race/Ethnicity: 92.0% Anglo-American, 3.3% African-American
MHI: $38.3k/Yr
Education: 23.7% > HS Diploma, 62.5% HS Degree
Age: 14% > 65/Yrs, 12.5% 55-64/Yrs, 26% 35-54/Yrs, 24% 18-34/Yrs...

Newark, OH--- Relative Occupations---



Now, let's take a look a relative industries in Newark, considering that it's a bit odd that overall Demographic mirror the County numbers, with the exception of MHI and Education...



Maybe the Cities largest employers might explain that???



Ok--- now let's check out a few of the election numbers from Newark, Ohio for a few election races...

Newark, OH--- US PRES 2004 to 2016....



So here we see an interesting representation of the complexities of OH-PRES election politics in recent decades....

This is a City in Ohio that swung towards Obama between '08 and '12, who received a much larger % of the Dem Vote than Kerry in '04 (I have a full set of OH 2000 precinct numbers floating around somewhere and would be interesting to add them to the mix), AND these Democratic gains were essentially wiped out with an unpopular Democrat running against a less-unpopular Republican around here....

Just dipping my first toe into the waters of Licking County, but if you're going to find "Ancestral Dems" that swung harder Trump, Newark City would certainly be a place where I would be interested in examining after the CD-12 Special Election, and certainly in the 2018 GE to see if the winds are blowing back against the Republicans, and if so to what extent...

I'll try to pull a few more summaries of Licking County before the Weekend to summarize, and hopefully maybe another County before E-Day....

Didn't start pulling the precinct data until a few weeks back, and have a full-time job, family and all that, so haven't been able to get into as much detailed election results as I would normally like to do.








Logged
Virginiá
Virginia
Administratrix
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,856
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -6.97, S: -5.91

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #468 on: August 01, 2018, 01:38:47 AM »

It's that time again (@Politico):

Trump jumps into Ohio special election as GOP alarm grows

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/31/trump-ohio-special-election-753326

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
Ebsy
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,001
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #469 on: August 01, 2018, 03:56:07 AM »

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-stumping-for-balderson-on-saturday-in-central-ohio-ahead-of-special-election

Trump headed to suburban Delaware County to bail Balderson out. Looking more and more like things are spinning out of control for the GOP.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,624
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #470 on: August 01, 2018, 05:22:04 AM »

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-stumping-for-balderson-on-saturday-in-central-ohio-ahead-of-special-election

Trump headed to suburban Delaware County to bail Balderson out. Looking more and more like things are spinning out of control for the GOP.

I don't think Delaware county is a hotbed of Trumpism.
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #471 on: August 01, 2018, 06:52:49 AM »

http://www.dispatch.com/news/20180731/trump-stumping-for-balderson-on-saturday-in-central-ohio-ahead-of-special-election

Trump headed to suburban Delaware County to bail Balderson out. Looking more and more like things are spinning out of control for the GOP.

I don't think Delaware county is a hotbed of Trumpism.

It isn’t, but if Rep. Brenner is right and the far right is disappointed in the primarynresults and plans on staying home, this is a good way of ginning up the base, and Delaware County is central and very generic Republican.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #472 on: August 01, 2018, 07:03:48 AM »

Predictit is 66c for Balderson, 34c for O’Connor. At this point O’Connor winning would be comparable to Trump’s surprise win in 2016. We can see how it might happen, even if the available polling evidence doesn’t point to it.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #473 on: August 01, 2018, 10:22:14 AM »

If Trump has to jump in and campaign for the R a few days before the vote, it usually means their internal polls are showing a massive mobilisation problem among Rs ...
Logged
BuckeyeNut
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,458


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -7.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #474 on: August 01, 2018, 10:35:39 AM »

If Trump has to jump in and campaign for the R a few days before the vote, it usually means their internal polls are showing a massive mobilisation problem among Rs ...

Again, Balderson hasn’t released a single internal to counter the Democratic internals showing he’s stuck at 48%.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 14 15 16 17 18 [19] 20 21 22 23 24 ... 71  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.166 seconds with 12 queries.