OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 107130 times)
Ebsy
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« Reply #375 on: July 27, 2018, 03:43:55 PM »
« edited: July 27, 2018, 05:21:50 PM by Ebsy »

Today's update:



There were 559 Democratic ballots returned today to 435 GOP and 185 Other as Democrats continue to build their early voting lead, now nearly 3500 votes. Republicans had a particularly good day in Muskingum County, but this was mostly offset by continuing strength from Democrats in Franklin.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #376 on: July 27, 2018, 04:54:36 PM »

Here is a potential theory why balderson isn't doing anything - he doesn't care whether he wins or loses. Whoever wins will be in congress for less then three months, at which point they go to a rematch in November. The district has a strong R PVI, and no ancestral Dem DNA, so he shouldn't lose with a regular electorate. A special electorate though right now favors the democrats by a large margin - so why bother contesting that? November should bring out more republicans, even if the environments still ends up favoring Dems.

Its a poor guess - O'Conner if he wins could end up gaining both notability and cash preventing a loss in November. But, its a theory.

If that's his strategy, it's an absolutely moronic one. It's going to be very hard to beat a Democratic incumbent in a climate like 2018.

O’Connor could definitely win this and then lose in November.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #377 on: July 27, 2018, 04:55:36 PM »

They certainly aren’t ignoring Field on the Republican side, that’s for sure.

Parachuted in doorknockers for CLF are a poor substitute for campaign staff and volunteer canvassers.

They’ve got people on the ground organically too, lol
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #378 on: July 27, 2018, 04:57:14 PM »

If he should win, he will have Sherrod Brown' s coattails to run on and an unpopular Mike De Wine.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #379 on: July 27, 2018, 05:47:29 PM »

Excellent post as always Nova. So here's my latest question. How do the various counties current share of the district's early vote compare to their share of the early vote at this time prior to the 2014 and 2012 elections? Would those numbers be at least a reasonable indicator of what the final share of each counties vote will be after election day? I ask because signs that Franklin County is outperforming its usual share, and by how much, are going to be every bit as key as O'Connor's margin there, frankly.

Another excellent question, and one that I don't believe we have comprehensive data-sets to be able to address, although some other posters such as Ebsy might have found access to data elsewhere that I have not yet obtained.

*** Off-Topic ***  Although I can't consider myself a true Buckeye, I did live in Ohio for four Years in the early 1990s when I was in College outside of Dayton, and was heavily involved in Labor and Environmental activism at that time, as well as to a lesser extent Civil Rights and the Student Movements, and still have much love and appreciation, and interest for the people of Ohio, as well as election related stuff, so it's a real pleasure to see and interact with so many Atlas Ohio posters, such as yourself on this thread....

Here's why your question(s) are virtually impossible for me to address at this time:

1.) Badger Question: How do the various counties current share of the district's early vote compare to their share of the early vote at this time prior to the 2014 and 2012 elections?

Ohio does not appear to have any type of central archive of Early Voting by Date


There are some States where we can pull up this data for a current election, and even a few that will have this data available for historical elections, but Ohio does not appear to be one of these States.

Hence, trying to assess the EV numbers by date is simply not feasible, unless I'm missing some key links somewhere, or if this data is stashed in some Google Archive somewhere....

2.) Badger Question: Would those numbers be at least a reasonable indicator of what the final share of each counties vote will be after election day?

Although I don't believe we can forecast the total post-election vote-share by County based upon the *current status of EV voting by previous party primary voting TO DATE *, we might well be able to forecast what % of the vote will be absentee vs Same-Day for portions of OH CD-12 within the various Counties....

Even there it start's get slightly problematic within the context of a Special US-House Election, since we can pull '12/'14/'16 numbers for total breakdown by ED/EV (ABS PAPER, ABS IVO, EDAY PAPER, EDAY IVO, & PROV) by County, but shifting patterns of Early Voting can make it difficult to estimate how this will look this August....

For example, within Franklin County portions of CD-12 there was a much rate of ED voting in '14 compared to '12 and '16. (I'll get back to Franklin County shortly).

Once of the challenges that I struggled with, as well as many other analysts struggled with in the AZ CD-08 Special Election was what Total Vote number would look like.... we pulled data from previous elections within the district, but it turned out AZ voters in CD-08 ended up voting much more heavily by Mail than normal, so we needed to adjust our total turnout and total voter models to accommodate, and even on election eve many of us (myself included) were overestimating the Same-Day vote.

Is OH-12 necessarily any different???

3.) Badger Comment #3: I ask because signs that Franklin County is outperforming its usual share, and by how much, are going to be every bit as key as O'Connor's margin there, frankly.

So pretty much all of us on this thread realize that Franklin County will be key to any potential Dem upset in a traditionally or "Ancestral Republican" part of Ohio....

As my somewhat detailed breakdown of the Franklin County portion of CD-12 definitively shows, even in the precincts located within the City of Columbus typically do not vote heavily Democratic with a few recent exceptions....

Much of the CD-12 portion of Franklin County tends to be relatively Upper-Income / Upper Middle-Class Anglos, who tend to vote at much higher levels, even in off-year elections.

4.) Here's what I have pulled together regarding breakdown of voting by EV/ED for Franklin County from '12 > '16....

Let's start with the total PRES vote in '16 by Vote Type (ED/EV) for ALL precincts in Franklin County...

The reason for this is that HRC way outperformed the DEM for OH CD-12 even within the Franklin County Precincts part of CD-12, so it gives us a snapshot, since I can't roll the numbers by precinct/place for EV within OH CD-12 being Franklin County and all that....



Now, let's look at the % breakdown by Vote Type for all precincts in Franklin County for US PRES '16 by Party....



Ok--- Check, so what does this tell us???

A.) DEM PRES voters in Franklin County (All) voted absentee at a higher number than Republicans vs ED votes....

BUT, look at the EV-IVO numbers vs the EV-Paper numbers....

DEMS in Franklin in '16 were less likely to mail in their ballots than go to an early in person voting center....

So obviously we see that Early Voting in Franklin County favors Republicans in Mail-in-Ballots and Dems do better with "In-Person" Early Voting.

B.) Now let's take a peak at the 2016 breakdown by Vote Type within the CD-12 portions of Franklin County....



Now let's look at the chart to see the distribution of voter type (EV/ED) for the OH-CD-12 Franklin County votes as a %.



So what does this tell us?

A.) Overall Absentee voting was higher for the Congressional Election in '16 in the CD-12 portions of Franklin County than in other parts of the County.

Roughly 48% of Dem ballots were cast early vs 36% of Pub ballots cast early...

'Pubs actually improved on their ABS-PAPER ballots, but lost ground on their ABS-IVO numbers....

Also, interesting to note for anyone concerned about 3rd Party Ballots in this election in Franklin County, they tend to be much more prone to vote on Election Day (ED) rather than EV.

Now, let's take a look at how Franklin Co CD-12 Voters chose to cast their ballots in 2014 for the US House Race....



Let's take a peak at the % of vote-types by party candidate for CD-12...



Pulling up 2012 for OH-CD 12 Franklin Co....



Let's look at the % of Vote TYPE BY CD-12 and PARTY in 2012....




OK--- anybodies brain hurting yet? Mine is from trying to pull this all together, and we're only talking about Franklin County CD-12 precincts and "Voting Types"...


So to summarize:

1.) We really need to understand the current breakdown of absentee voters within Franklin County by ABS-PAPER vs ABS-IVO, at this current time and to the lead-up to E-Day before basing estimates solely upon ABS (EV) voters to date.

There appears to be a much stronger correlation between support for a Democratic Candidate with ABS-IVO voters than ABS-PAPER voters within Franklin County, and within the CD-12 precincts within Franklin County.

Anyone have these numbers available and is there a way to track this through E-Day?

2.) In "Off-Year" Elections, the total ABS voters % decreases dramatically compared to PRES election years within CD-12.

Many voters in off-year elections simply vote ED or VbM rather than EV'ing in person....

In fact the % of DEM/REP US-House voters was actually pretty close in '14 compared to '12 and '16, mainly because of a dramatic drop-off in DEM ABS-IVOs.

3.) As I have stated before in different ways, we really don't have any decent modelling of what a DEM victory would look like in CD-12 other than some County level benchmarks pundits have thrown out, and also this 60% EV number that keeps floating around Atlas, although I haven't yet seen any type of actual statistical data to support this other than some generalities regarding OH-ALL EV voting patterns in PRES election years....

The limited amount of data we do have thus far appears to indicate that Franklin County is looking pretty decent compared to historical voting patterns within CD-12.

Unfortunately, not being able to break down the '16 PRES numbers by CD-12 within Franklin County for EV/ED voters makes it much more difficult to assess, considering how DEM's traditionally lose House elections by big margins, even in a hypothetical massive swing portion of Franklin County ('12 > '16 PRES swings).

4.) It does appear that something is happening within the Franklin County precincts of CD-12, where we will likely see a massive amount of both Turnout, Raw Votes, and unprecedented DEM margins for a down-ballot election, but will it be enough?Huh









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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #380 on: July 27, 2018, 06:32:43 PM »

Here is a potential theory why balderson isn't doing anything - he doesn't care whether he wins or loses. Whoever wins will be in congress for less then three months, at which point they go to a rematch in November. The district has a strong R PVI, and no ancestral Dem DNA, so he shouldn't lose with a regular electorate. A special electorate though right now favors the democrats by a large margin - so why bother contesting that? November should bring out more republicans, even if the environments still ends up favoring Dems.

Its a poor guess - O'Conner if he wins could end up gaining both notability and cash preventing a loss in November. But, its a theory.

If that's his strategy, it's an absolutely moronic one. It's going to be very hard to beat a Democratic incumbent in a climate like 2018.

O’Connor could definitely win this and then lose in November.

Lol that would be so funny.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #381 on: July 27, 2018, 06:44:14 PM »

It won't happen, due to the Sherrod Brown coattails with Cordray and O'Connor.  Likely, not should win, could it happen, yes.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #382 on: July 27, 2018, 06:46:24 PM »

The Balderson campaign has gone dark, really odd:



The Roy Moore, Saccone strategy of ''I dont need to campaign cause Ive got this in the bag''

Maybe it's a "Weekend at Bernie's" scenario
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MAINEiac4434
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« Reply #383 on: July 27, 2018, 07:10:33 PM »

With a race this close, I feel like it’s going to come down to turnout, and I think O’Connor has got the advantage.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #384 on: July 27, 2018, 07:11:23 PM »

Before I forget and move on to another County within CD-12, I thought it might be interesting to the run the numbers for US-PRES in the smaller places in Franklin County from 2004 to 2016.

I can't include Columbus, which accounts for roughly 50% of the Franklin County section of CD-12, because of precinct changes and all of that stuff... Sad

Still, we can see how Dublin, Gahanna, Westerville, and Worthington voted from '04 > '16 at the Presidential Level....

Collectively these Cities account for roughly 40% of the CD-12 Franklin County Vote Share, and tend to be a bit more Republican even than the somewhat swingy with 'Pub lean portion of Columbus, Ohio located within the district.





1.) Dublin--- 2nd largest City in Franklin County (Pop 42k, 78% Anglo, 15% Asian, MHI $113.2k/Yr, 78% Degree > High School, heavily White-Collar Professional Occupations)

2.) Gahanna- (Pop 33.6k), 83% Anglo, 11% African-American, MHI $71.2k/Yr, 54% Degree > High School, Occupational sectors skew more Middle-Class

3.) Westerville- Pop 36.8k (3rd largest City in Franklin County), 85% Anglo, 8% African-American, 60% degree > High School Diploma, MHI $82.1k/Yr, Occupational Sectors mix of Upper Middle-Class and Middle-Class

4.) Worthington- Pop 13.5k, MHI $ 86.9k/Yr, 92% Anglo, 72% > HS Diploma Occupations skew a bit Upper Middle-Class....

Looks like maybe it might have some overlap with Professors and Administrators working at Ohio State University?Huh

Regardless, this little chart shows how rapidly how the suburbs of North Franklin County are shifting away from the Republican Party at the Presidential Level....

We have yet to see them shift hard DEM for other down-ballot races, but if O'Conner pulls this out, it will likely be within these communities.


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NOVA Green
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« Reply #385 on: July 28, 2018, 07:40:33 PM »

Ok--- Time to do an initial survey of Delaware County to see what the Tea Leaves might indicate for this upcoming Special Election....

Let's start with US Presidential Election results by place 2004 to 2016.



Now, let's take a look at this same data in a graphical format.



Time to look at a summarized chart of the Vote Share by Place '04 > '16




So what is the takeaway from these three data points?

1.) The vast majority of voters within Delaware County do not reside within Cities as their municipal jurisdiction.

Roughly 71% of the voters between '04 and '16 have Townships as their Primary Political Jurisdiction....

Although this might appear as a bit of semantics the reality is that in many parts of the Country this creates an additional level of removal from the "Cities" when it comes to everything from Taxation, Zoning, Policies and regulations that cover everything from waste disposal to how often you mow your lawn, etc.... almost like living in an HOA, except many of these policies are enforced by the Governmental Jurisdiction, rather than the Home Owners Association.....

2.) Within the Cities of Delaware County we are increasingly seeing movement towards the Democratic Party at the Presidential Level in terms of RAW VOTE margins....

For example the growing sliver of the City of Columbus within Franklin County has been increasingly moving Dem in raw vote Margins, and we are also observing a significant decrease of 'Pub raw vote numbers in Dublin and Westerville.

I'll need to take another look at Delaware City, since the '16 PRES numbers look a bit odd, and just validate that I didn't accidentally include Delaware Township precincts from '16 in with Delaware City Precincts....

It could just be that the Delaware City portion of the County grew in the form of a large new subdivision, which actually would make sense with the increased vote share from '12 > '16.

3.) It's pretty clear just looking at the raw vote numbers that a DEM candidate will need to keep Delaware County RAW VOTE numbers down to something more like a +8-10k R margin, even if the DEMS are banking serious margins in Franklin County.

OK... Let's roll a few % numbers....

Now here we have the % of Vote by Party for US PRES Elections '04 > '16 by Place.



Look carefully at these % numbers, especially the "OTHER" numbers that after all account for ~ 70% of the County Vote.

Delaware City looks even fishier here, and I'll go back and validate that and move the data and charts around if there was a filter error with potential inclusion of Delaware Twsp data....

Still the fundamentals stand... we are continuing to see a significant erosion of Republican support at the US-PRES level even in the most 'Pub portion of the County (Townships).

Let's look at this same data in a graphical format...




I'll post a swing map later by place, but really the key take-away here, is that it is entirely possible that the Democratic Candidate in CD-12 will win big in the "Cities" (30% of the County Vote Share), lose in the Townships, but keep Delaware County Close enough so that Franklin County can erase the Republican vote margins from the other Five Counties within CD-12.

Next Stop, I'll take a more detailed look at the Townships of Delaware County, since this appears to be potentially Ground Zero of overall Delaware County margins in the Special Election.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #386 on: July 29, 2018, 12:20:48 AM »

I have been slightly remiss in my responsibilities when it comes to covering the Cities of Delaware County....

Although previously we touched on the Columbus, OH Dublin, OH, Westerville Franklin County Side, and we have 12% of the Delaware County Vote Share from these same three Cities, we have a few new Cities not yet discussed.

Delaware City---- 17.1% of the 2016 PRES Vote Share in Delaware County.



MHI- $57.0k/Yr

Educational Attainment- 42.3% > HS Diploma, 50.1% HS Diploma

Race/Ethnicity: 91.3% Anglo-American, 3.2% African-American, 1.9% Latino-American

Occupations:



Politically this City is a bit surprising when looking at the 2016 Presidential Election results....



Here is a more graphical interface that looks at margins and swings....



IF anyone can explain what happened in Delaware Ohio (The CITY) and the home of Ohio Wesleyan University between '12 and '16 at the US PRES level, I would be most interested, since this City will be key to any potential Democratic victory in OH CD-12.....

Next stop I'll need to look at the City of Powell, Ohio before I start delving into the Townships, since although I didn't include it on my list of the Cities of Delaware County, it definitely fits the profile of a potential massive swing place even in a Special US-House Election

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Tender Branson
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« Reply #387 on: July 29, 2018, 12:44:20 AM »

Do you guys think that the Green Party candidate Joe Manchik will cost O'Connor the election ?

In 2016, Manchik was also on the ballot and almost got 5% of the vote (in a non-competetive election of course).

This election will be quite competetive, so Manchik's share will likely only be 1-2% this time, but it could be enough for Balderson to sneak out a win.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #388 on: July 29, 2018, 12:46:46 AM »

He can, but I think OConnor still wins
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #389 on: July 29, 2018, 01:30:41 AM »

Do you guys think that the Green Party candidate Joe Manchik will cost O'Connor the election ?

In 2016, Manchik was also on the ballot and almost got 5% of the vote (in a non-competetive election of course).

This election will be quite competetive, so Manchik's share will likely only be 1-2% this time, but it could be enough for Balderson to sneak out a win.

I don't believe that Manchik will cost O'Connor the election....

Votes are earned and not given, and as you stated the voters that backed Green Party candidates in OH CD-12 will be much lower in the 2018 Special Election.

Much of the reason why 3rd Party Left Leaning voters in OH-CD-12 backed Green candidates in the past was because this was known as a safely and solidly Republican House District, so why not vote Green to keep the Democratic Party honest on Labor and Environmental issues???

Additionally, it should be noted that Metro Columbus is a major center of the Environmentalist Movement within Ohio as a former Center of New Left activism in the 1960s and 1970s, and as a major center of educated voters from Ohio State University and Public Sector employee Unions in a region of the State least dependent upon the types of Industrial Jobs that created the whole false dichotomy between "Jobs vs Environment" that played elsewhere within Ohio....

If the Dem candidate loses it will likely be for other reasons than a 3rd Party Candidate bagging     
1-2% of the vote, including the structural political composition and social geography of the District, as well as the sophistication of modern day political Gerrymandering using Computer Software tools that I wish I could employ on Atlas to create much more high quality detailed driven presentations....
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #390 on: July 29, 2018, 02:58:13 PM »

The thing I'm now eagerly watching for is how well O'Connor does in the precincts that overlap with State House Districts 19, 21, and 24, which are all top pickup opportunities at the moment and represent half of the seats Ohio Democrats need to win over to break the Republican supermajority.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #391 on: July 29, 2018, 05:24:52 PM »

Yet one more important City in Delaware County in the upcoming CD-12 Special Election, which accounts for almost 7.0% of the entire County Vote Share.

Powell, Ohio---- Pop 11.8k, MHI $132.6k/Yr, 78% Degree > HS Diploma (!!!), 86.3% Anglo-American, 10.0% Asian-American.



Relative Occupations skew extremely Upper-Middle Class:



How did Powell, Ohio vote at the Presidential level from 2004 to 2016, and what trends have we observed over the past 12 Years of Presidential Elections?



So here we starting to see beginnings of the narrow sliver chance of a DEM upset win in OH CD-12, where even in areas that have been swinging and trending DEM at the PRES level (ESP by Ohio standards), have still tended to overwhelmingly support Republicans at the State and Federal down-ballot levels....

Math goes basically something like this, rack up huge margins within the Franklin County portion of the district especially within the City of Columbus Precincts, continue to expand DEM margins in Dublin, Westerville, Worthington, AND win by comfortable margins within the Cities of Delaware County that account collectively for ~ 35% of the County Vote Share (Columbus, Dublin, Powell, Westerville, and Delaware City)....

Now, there's obviously something missing in the math here, namely the high population Townships within Delaware County (Orange, Liberty, Genoa, and Concord) that account for an additional 42% of the County Vote Share.

Remember, Democrats don't need to WIN Delaware County to win CD-12, just keep 'PUB RAW VOTE margins down enough to allow FRANKLIN County to provide a solid enough buffer to overcome the PUB raw vote numbers from the other heavily TRUMP Counties within the District.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #392 on: July 29, 2018, 05:30:30 PM »

The thing I'm now eagerly watching for is how well O'Connor does in the precincts that overlap with State House Districts 19, 21, and 24, which are all top pickup opportunities at the moment and represent half of the seats Ohio Democrats need to win over to break the Republican supermajority.

Interesting.... I haven't looked at the OH LD math, let alone followed the OH State House/Senate races, but I do have a ton of raw data, if you're interested in having me pull more detailed precinct stuff later on (After the OH CD-12 Special Election results are published of course Wink ).... 
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« Reply #393 on: July 29, 2018, 06:59:30 PM »

Let's now take a look some of the Townships within Delaware County....

1.) Orange Township---- 13.3% of Delaware County Vote Share



Basic US Census Stats as always----

Pop--- 26.9k, MHI $102.1k/Yr, 77.7% Anglo-American, 10.5% Asian-American, 6.4% African-American

Education: 67.0% Degree > HS Diploma

Let's take a look at relative occupations....



OK--- Fits the profile of a place in CD-12 where potentially the Republicans have not yet hit rock bottom, especially at the down-ballot level in the era of Trump.

How has Orange Township voted over the past Four Presidential Elections and are there any swings or trending that might play to a DEM advantage in this Special Election???



So, Orange Township definitely fits of the profile of a '16 PRES > '18 OH-CD-12 flip community, which if it happens would significantly increase the DEM candidates goal of keeping PUB margins low in Delaware County.

2.) Genoa Township---- 14.0% of the 2016 Delaware County Vote Share (!!!)



US CENSUS STATS:

Pop: 23.7k, MHI $116.6k/Yr, 89.0% Anglo-American, 4.0% African-American, 3.4% Asian-American
Education: 71.3% Degree > HS Diploma

Relative Occupations:



How did Genoa Township Ohio vote for US PRES '04 to '16???



So although there was only a +24% DEM PRES swing between '04 and '16 in Genoa Township compared to a +27% DEM PRES swing between '04 and '16 in Orange Township, there are more favorable ethnic/racial demographics in Orange than Genoa, and quite likely Anglo-American voters swung equally hard in both municipalities but with a much lower DEM baseline in Genoa than Orange.

Still, Trump captured slightly less than 55% of the Vote in '16 here, so even assuming it stays PUB in the Special Election, we still see which direction the wind is blowing in the Era of Trump....

OK--- we now have two additional Townships in Delaware County (Liberty and Concord) that collectively account for about 14.9% of the TOTAL DELAWARE COUNTY VOTE-SHARE.

These Townships are even more Republican than Orange and Genoa, and will likely be the places where the 'Pubs will try to maximize their RAW VOTE margins within Delaware County, assuming that this election is maybe somewhere in the order of +2-5% R once all the votes are counted.

Give me a few minutes to grab a Cig, make a few moves on the Chessboard, take a sip of Bourbon, and I'll take a look at those two Townships.... Smiley
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« Reply #394 on: July 29, 2018, 08:05:44 PM »

Time to Move over to Liberty and Concord Townships....

Liberty Township--- 9.2% of Delaware County Vote Share.

Pop--- 26.8k
MHI: $123.8k/Yr
Race/Ethnicity: 88.0% Anglo-American, 7.6% Asian-American, 2.5% African-American
Education: 72.8% Degree > HS Diploma

Relative Occupations:



How did Liberty Township Vote for US PRES 2014 to 2016???



So here we see the Democratic Candidate starting from a lower base-line number, and although there was a +22.6% Dem PRES swing between '04 and '16, it was still a bit lower than in Orange and Genoa Townships....

Interestingly enough, this doesn't appear explainable simply upon the Social-Demographic comparative numbers that I pulled for the other two Townships.

Still, the relatively close comparative US-PRES swing margins, would appear to indicate that *IF* a DEM US-HOUSE Candidate were to increase margins in Orange and Genoa, that these swings might well be relatively comparable in Liberty Township.

CONCORD TOWNSHIP--- 5.7% of the DELAWARE COUNTY TOTAL VOTE SHARE

POP- 9.5k
MHI- $ 127.8k/Yr
Race/Ethnicity: 86.8% Anglo-American, 6.7% Asian-American, 3.5% African-American
Educational Attainment: 66.4% Degree > HS Diploma

Relative Occupations:



How did Concord Township Vote for US PRES 2004 to 2016???




Concord Township sort of stands out here, even compared to Liberty Township when looking at the Social-Demographic Data...

It only swung +15.5% D at the US-PRES level between '04 and '16 compared to much larger swings in the other key suburban/exurban Columbus Townships of Delaware County.

Unfortunately I can't explain the reasons, and I'll let some of the more knowledgeable Buckeyes or resident Ohio experts explain since other than Ancestral Republican History, there tons of variation between the Social-Demographics of these Four Townships (Other than Educational Attainment rates a bit lower in Concord Township than those of the other "Big Four" Townships of Delaware County.

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Virginiá
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« Reply #395 on: July 29, 2018, 08:13:16 PM »

NOVA: OH-12 aside, I'm hoping you plan to do a big picture analysis of the November general elections across the country. I'd be very interested to see your take on it.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #396 on: July 29, 2018, 09:26:24 PM »

Now, let's take a look at the overall Delaware County Vote Share in 2016:



I have covered 80% and we have 20% remaining, basically the Rural Townships and Villages for the most part.

Let's look at the 80% that is Metro Columbus with RAW vote numbers....



The rurals that are only 20% of the total County vote accounted for almost 50% of PUB margins in the '16 PRES election.

Here are the % numbers by Metro Delaware vs Rural...



So--- anyone who doubts that the DEM REP in CD-12 could hit 50% in the METRO portions of the County, hasn't been paying attention.

I haven't spent too much time playing with the Rural Townships, but there are definitely some Obama '12 > Trump '16 voters floating around, without even going back into the Weeds of the '04 General Election....

Still, swings are more likely to happen in the METRO PARTS of DELAWARE than RURAL, but one can certainly see how DEMs could keep PUB margins low in DELAWARE and steamroll over the remaining counties solely on the back of FRANKLIN County numbers.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #397 on: July 30, 2018, 01:04:06 AM »

For those interested in Franklin County party switchers from the 2016 primary to now, within the current absentee count, those who cast ballots in the 2016 Republican primary and then switched to Democratic in 2018 amount to 4.7% of returns overall and 6.7% of Democratic returns.
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Chancellor Tanterterg
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« Reply #398 on: July 30, 2018, 07:04:50 AM »

A lot of Democrats here also voted in the Republican primary to oppose Trump in Franklin County, so the numbers there may actually be a few points worse than they look for Balderson in Franklin County.
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BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #399 on: July 30, 2018, 10:51:52 AM »

A lot of Democrats here also voted in the Republican primary to oppose Trump in Franklin County, so the numbers there may actually be a few points worse than they look for Balderson in Franklin County.

This is definitely true.

The O'Connor internal that came out last week brings the average polling result for the past month to Balderson 48%, O'Connor 44%, Manchik 4% and 4% undecided. Oddly, all of O'Connor's internals have shown Balderson stuck at 48% going back to June, and all but two of the six polls in this race have been Democratic internals.

What that means for Balderson, I don't know.
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