OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Badger]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

Wow. Can anyone imagine where a Goyal vs. Leneghan race would be at right now?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

Wow. Can anyone imagine where a Goyal vs. Leneghan race would be at right now?

I highly doubt that an Indian would do better in the racist farmlands of this district, but I think he would improve just enough in the suburbs to edge out a win.

[Badger]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

Wow. Can anyone imagine where a Goyal vs. Leneghan race would be at right now?

I highly doubt that an Indian would do better in the racist farmlands of this district, but I think he would improve just enough in the suburbs to edge out a win.

Maybe. "Jay Goyal" isn't exactly a name that screams "FERRINER!!!"

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

Wow. Can anyone imagine where a Goyal vs. Leneghan race would be at right now?

I highly doubt that an Indian would do better in the racist farmlands of this district, but I think he would improve just enough in the suburbs to edge out a win.

Maybe. "Jay Goyal" isn't exactly a name that screams "FERRINER!!!"

Oh wait, that is a good point dude, yeah Leneghan would probably lose by 5 to 6 points.

[BuckeyeNut]

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

Wow. Can anyone imagine where a Goyal vs. Leneghan race would be at right now?

Damn near Safe D.

Lol O'Connor a "weak candidate"

He was far from a recruiting coup d’état.

 It’s a real shame Jay Goyal didn’t get in. O’Connor has fought like Hell to make this a tossup in the final day of the election, but Jay would’ve been favored by now.

Wow. Can anyone imagine where a Goyal vs. Leneghan race would be at right now?

I highly doubt that an Indian would do better in the racist farmlands of this district, but I think he would improve just enough in the suburbs to edge out a win.

Proves what you know, which is unsurprisingly little. Goyal's past constituency was the "racist farmlands" of Richland County. And on top of that, he was House Majority Whip.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have this unshakable feeling that Balderson wins. If I am proved correct, I really hope it is a sizeable win (hopefully 5 or more points) for Balderson cause I don't think my cardiovascular system can handle a Balderson squeaker. It makes me shudder even thinking about it.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I have this unshakable feeling that Balderson wins. If I am proved correct, I really hope it is a sizeable win (hopefully 5 or more points) for Balderson cause I don't think my cardiovascular system can handle a Balderson squeaker. It makes me shudder even thinking about it.

I think you need a bit of perspective here.

This is a random special election in a district that is less than 1% of the total house of representatives for a congressional candidate that will serve for less than 4 months before another election occurs.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I have this unshakable feeling that Balderson wins. If I am proved correct, I really hope it is a sizeable win (hopefully 5 or more points) for Balderson cause I don't think my cardiovascular system can handle a Balderson squeaker. It makes me shudder even thinking about it.

I think you need a bit of perspective here.

This is a random special election in a district that is less than 1% of the total house of representatives for a congressional candidate that will serve for less than 4 months before another election occurs.

Ik, but whoever wins it will probably carries the GE too.

[Beet]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

[BuckeyeNut]

If Balderson wins in a squeaker, the GE will not be competitive.

1: DCCC has many better targets and will likely pull out.
2: Whatever happens, it'll be a low turnout election. When we get to the fall and see the normal midterm turnout, it will be more disfavorable to Democrats.

[ON Progressive]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

[Technocracy Timmy]

I have this unshakable feeling that Balderson wins. If I am proved correct, I really hope it is a sizeable win (hopefully 5 or more points) for Balderson cause I don't think my cardiovascular system can handle a Balderson squeaker. It makes me shudder even thinking about it.

I think you need a bit of perspective here.

This is a random special election in a district that is less than 1% of the total house of representatives for a congressional candidate that will serve for less than 4 months before another election occurs.

Ik, but whoever wins it will probably carries the GE too.

[BuckeyeNut]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026244406029045762

Saturday's Dem blowout in the in person absentees in Franklin County went for a repeat today.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Lol

https://www.twitter.com/_owendaugherty/status/1025938307803500544

Just like that "Blacks for Trump" guy, most of his rallies are just the same cultists who travel across the country to support him.

That guy in particular holds up a sign about some website called Gods2.com or something which traffics in antisemitic conspiracy theories. They are not representative of black people as a whole, or even most black Republicans, honestly. He really does just attract the worst kinds of people that follow him around the country to lap up whatever bile he is extruding. It's like the Grateful Dead and their "Deadheads," but infinitely worse!

[Beet]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

[Gass3268]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

Yeah, I had to add him too.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026244406029045762

Saturday's Dem blowout in the in person absentees in Franklin County went for a repeat today.

An Delaware is a tie https://mobile.twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1026240017985757185

[Landslide Lyndon]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

You are trying too hard to be like Lief.
Not working.

[DrScholl]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

Shut up, Beet.

[Devout Centrist]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

Right next to their fear of clouds of deadly radiation coming from Fukushima or North Korean ICBM's

[Brittain33]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

Yes, no doubt all those Fox News viewers in OH-12 were on the fence about how to vote until Sarah Jeong showed up on their channel.

[Beet]

I would guess Balderson by about 5 points. The Sarah Jeong story is really going to hurt O'Connor in this 87% white district.

LMFAO. Nobody in OH-12 cares about Sarah Jeong. She's a tech writer (so she's not even in a political section) in a newspaper that is from over 500 miles away. Hell, I bet most people in NYC don't know who the hell Sarah Jeong is.

Anyone who's going to vote based on Sarah Jeong was a Republican voter anyway.

Beet's trolling. Just put him on ignore.

No, the vast majority of white Democrats and center-leftists outside the media and elite are pretty horrified by Jeong's tweets. So the average swing voter in OH-12 will too. Don't think they don't know or haven't heard of this story-- it's been blasted on Fox News quite a bit, and a ton of other media channels. So thousands of voters will have gone to the polls having heard the story.

Yes, no doubt all those Fox News viewers in OH-12 were on the fence about how to vote until Sarah Jeong showed up on their channel.

They'll bring it up in talks with family members and friends and so on. It was on CNN too. Special election voters will be more politically aware than the average Joe. The best counter to my argument is not that no ones heard about it or no one cares, but that they'll judge O'Connor locally and not as a member of his party.

[NOVA Green]

Ok--- Ebsy was able to share me some of the raw data he collected on EV numbers in OH-CD-12 (THANK YOU!!!!))), and I am starting to match that against other data that I've been working on when it comes to historical voting patterns within the District.

Let's Start with the "Big Enchilada" otherwise known as Franklin County:

Here is a graph that shows the 2016 GE Final Vote Share by Place within Franklin County compared to the 2018 CD-12 Special Election EV numbers to date.



So here we see the City of Columbus well over-performing their total vote share compared to the 2016 Presidential Election.

Just to get a sense of how dramatic these numbers look, is that in the 2014 OH GE, the City of Columbus only accounted for 44% of the Franklin County Total Vote Share.

Now what do the EV numbers from Columbus say in historical comparison to Total Vote % by Party?



So---- WOW just WOW.... The Republican % of the vote in the City of Columbus has dropped to just 15%, compared with Trump's final total 30% in '16, and Mitt's 39% in 2012.

Now let's look at the raw vote margins by place within Franklin County to date by Early Votes and Partisan Affiliation.



There is absolutely no way to suger-coat these numbers coming out of the City of Columbus, despite traditional Dem leads in EV.

This is an off-year election and yet Columbus has gone from 44% to 56% of the Vote-Share compared to 2014, AND these Democratic % margins from Columbus without even including the "OTHER EV" contingent, seems to indicate extremely high DEM raw vote margins from Franklin County come Tuesday, and even possibly overall Franklin County Vote Share increase (IDK???)

I'll look at a few of the other EV numbers from Franklin County by Place against historical numbers shortly.... Still trying to digest all of the info that Ebsy provided!!!!

[Hindsight was 2020]

So with EV over what is the assessment of how O’Connor did?