OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Bidenworth2020]

did he delete that...

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

>Calls people low IQ
>Endorses wrong person

[Doimper]

y i k e s

[DrScholl]

Says a lot for his endorsements if he can't even get the person's name right.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Can we pass the COVFEFE Act yet?

[Brittain33]

The "inspiration to our military" shows he or someone else actually did some homework on Steve Stivers' biography vs. Troy Balderson. Hah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

who the f**k is steve stivers

[Blair]

Am I the only one who gets annoyed that Trump doesn't actually know how to tailor a campaign- every Republican is 'strong on border and vets', whilst the Democrat is 'weak on guns and borders'.

[Dr. Arch]

lol, this guy we have for a president lol

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Trump is an idiot

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

O'Connor needs to say that this is just another example of national elites coming in here not knowing anything but telling us what to do and who and what to support, they did not even get the candidate's name right! Send a clear rebuke to DC, send local O'Connor!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump is an idiot

Evergreen post.

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

[Bidenworth2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

This is about what he needs, but a bit more would be better.

[Badger]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

Pretty sure it's not. From what I've seen, the scam is being targetted to voters in Clintonville -- an affluent and activist neighborhood of Columbus within OH-12. Local Democrats are urging anyone contacted to report the incident to the Franklin County BOE.

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

O'Connor doesn't need 60% -- he needs to win at least a 20% margin. O'Connor's still well on track for that assuming everyone actually registered the two main parties is actually voting that way. (And given the strong Democratic crossover into the 2016 Republican primary, especially in Franklin County, it's fairly safe to say a fair number of those Republicans are voting for O'Connor.)

We might also see some registered DINOS out in Balderson turf also vote for Balderson though.

Very few I'd guess. Certainly some, but Muskingum County isnt Alabama or West Virginia. It's historically Republican and most Democrats are, well, Democrats. Balderson will certainly pick some up with his Hometown ties, but when one considers the relatively small numbers the county is putting up, I doubt it will have much affect

[Badger]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

This is about what he needs, but a bit more would be better.

Does anyone anticipate an uptick for O'Connor when the in-person weekend voting kicks in this Saturday? What's the historical impact?

[Ebsy]

I know the Saturday and Sunday before election day are typically big early voting days in many of Ohio's bigger cities. As to whether it is a phenomenon in the mostly suburban and rural OH-12, I can't say.

[BuckeyeNut]

As an OH-15 resident, today has been highly amusing. I would also image there will be a Democratic spike in Columbus this weekend.

[Antonio the Sixth]

EV getting a little too close for comfort now, isn't it?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

[BudgieForce]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

[Gass3268]

EV getting a little too close for comfort now, isn't it?

Republicans won the early vote here in both 16 and in the 18 primary. Still a pretty big margin.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

[Gass3268]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

This is based on who folks voted for in 2016, so it's possible that some Democratic and left leaning Independents that crossed over to vote for Kasich against Trump would be counted as Republicans.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



5 days left, including the two weekend days.

Again what I said last night he’s falling a percent every day. At the rate he’s going 5 days means he could be at only 45% of ev

I know you know this, but we dont actually know who these ballots cast their votes for.

Yes but the odds that more then 2% of r’s are breaking for Danny are low

This is based on who folks voted for in 2016, so it's possible that some Democratic and left leaning Independents that crossed over to vote for Kasich against Trump would be counted as Republicans.

Possible but that is a massive assumption though