OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Ebsy]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

[MAINEiac4434]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Jesus

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

The Monmouth poll that came out today had Franklin constituting 32% of the electorate, rn we are at 39%, if we can keep it up above 35-36, we are in good spot to win.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Also my dad donated $10 to O'Connor just a few minutes ago, and he said there was to 4 to 1 match offer on his donation, so O'Connor got $50 in total.

[Badger]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

[IceSpear]

Remember when many people thought Balderson was inevitable because of a poll a month before the election showing him up double digits?

This is what we call a teachable moment.

[ON Progressive]

Remember when many people thought Balderson was inevitable because of a poll a month before the election showing him up double digits?

This is what we call a teachable moment.

I remember that and being told “Polls surely won’t tighten in two months like they did in PA-18”.

[IceSpear]

Remember when many people thought Balderson was inevitable because of a poll a month before the election showing him up double digits?

This is what we call a teachable moment.

I remember that and being told “Polls surely won’t tighten in two months like they did in PA-18”.

It's almost as if a mysterious force is pushing these races in a certain direction as election day gets closer and closer...I've never heard of such a thing! What could it POSSIBLY mean?!

Btw Heller will win because he's up by 1 point 3 months before the election.

[Maxwell]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

that's genuinely pretty despicable and i might throw some money at O'Connor because of it.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win the majority in Congress, but some Democrats and some GOP may go down or be successful because its that sort of mood.  Heller can survive and Laxalt can win, but you can have Dewine going down and Cordray winning in OH, its that sort of year.

But, as election day is moving closer, as expected, Aug, Sept and Oct, partisanship rally toward their base.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

Goalposts being moved daily.

[Kodak]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

[BuckeyeNut]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

Pretty sure it's not. From what I've seen, the scam is being targetted to voters in Clintonville -- an affluent and activist neighborhood of Columbus within OH-12. Local Democrats are urging anyone contacted to report the incident to the Franklin County BOE.

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

O'Connor doesn't need 60% -- he needs to win at least a 20% margin. O'Connor's still well on track for that assuming everyone actually registered the two main parties is actually voting that way. (And given the strong Democratic crossover into the 2016 Republican primary, especially in Franklin County, it's fairly safe to say a fair number of those Republicans are voting for O'Connor.)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

Pretty sure it's not. From what I've seen, the scam is being targetted to voters in Clintonville -- an affluent and activist neighborhood of Columbus within OH-12. Local Democrats are urging anyone contacted to report the incident to the Franklin County BOE.

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

O'Connor doesn't need 60% -- he needs to win at least a 20% margin. O'Connor's still well on track for that assuming everyone actually registered the two main parties is actually voting that way. (And given the strong Democratic crossover into the 2016 Republican primary, especially in Franklin County, it's fairly safe to say a fair number of those Republicans are voting for O'Connor.)

We might also see some registered DINOS out in Balderson turf also vote for Balderson though.

[OneJ]

Sure, but keep in mind that Monmouth’s poll suggests that there will be a lot more O’Connor GOP voters than vice versa.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Sure, but keep in mind that Monmouth’s poll suggests that there will be a lot more O’Connor GOP voters than vice versa.

[Gass3268]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.

I know I'm the Ohio lawyer here, but.....how could that be? I'm not denying it per se. I'm just shocked.

Pretty sure it's not. From what I've seen, the scam is being targetted to voters in Clintonville -- an affluent and activist neighborhood of Columbus within OH-12. Local Democrats are urging anyone contacted to report the incident to the Franklin County BOE.

Today's update:



Richland County's website is down so that was the only wrinkle today. Republicans edged out Democrats for the first time yesterday, turning in 90 more ballots, 1004 to 914 with 336 for other. Obviously it depends on how the next few days go, and how much ground Dems can make up on Saturday and Sunday, but I think O'Connor is right about where he need to win.

Out of curiosity why do you think that O’Connor is where he needs to win as each day his EV lead shrinks a point or 2? Are you confident that “others” will break that much for him?

As of right now, O’Connor only needs to win 52% of the ‘Other’ vote to win 60% of early voters overall.

But that’s my point “as of now”. We’ve got enough days left that at the rate Danny’s going he’s going to needs 60% of others

O'Connor doesn't need 60% -- he needs to win at least a 20% margin. O'Connor's still well on track for that assuming everyone actually registered the two main parties is actually voting that way. (And given the strong Democratic crossover into the 2016 Republican primary, especially in Franklin County, it's fairly safe to say a fair number of those Republicans are voting for O'Connor.)

We might also see some registered DINOS out in Balderson turf also vote for Balderson though.

There are no registered voters in Ohio, the party ID here is based off what ballot you pulled in the last primary. I don’t see many Clinton/Sanders voters going for Balderson.

[Ebsy]

This is not exactly the type of district with any sort of ancestral democratic presence... quite the opposite, actually.

[junior chįmp]

This is not exactly the type of district with any sort of ancestral democratic presence... quite the opposite, actually.

Through Trump...all things are possible

[Ebsy]

This is not exactly the type of district with any sort of ancestral democratic presence... quite the opposite, actually.

Through Trump...all things are possible

Trump got less of a share in this district than McCain or Romney.

[ltomlinson31]

Big endorsement:

[Hindsight was 2020]

Big endorsement:

Our president has a single digit IQ

[Tender Branson]

Americans, your President is a total mental trainwreck ...