OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Brittain33]

If Trump has to jump in and campaign for the R a few days before the vote, it usually means their internal polls are showing a massive mobilisation problem among Rs ...

Again, Balderson hasn’t released a single internal to counter the Democratic internals showing he’s stuck at 48%.

...but those same internals have O'Connor down by a small number of points, and in a special election when the votes are counted you will have 0 undecideds and very few 3rd party votes (because why bother?)

[Brittain33]

Oh come on ALREADY Monmouth

[Tender Branson]

It's a tie ...

Standard Midterm LV model: 46-45 Balderson
Low Turnout LV model: 49-44 Balderson
Democratic “Surge” LV model: 46-45 O'Connor

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_080118

[john cage bubblegum]

It's a tie ...

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_080118/

Yep, looks like 46-45 Balderson in their "standard" turnout model, and 46-45 O'Connor in the "Dem surge" model.  This one is coming down to the wire!

[Gass3268]

Trump's approval rating dropped 4 points since June and there has been a 7 point drop in folks supporting Trump on the issues.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

It's a tie ...

Standard Midterm LV model: 46-45 Balderson
Low Turnout LV model: 49-44 Balderson
Democratic “Surge” LV model: 46-45 O'Connor

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_080118

Son of Balder will win.

[Tender Branson]

Favorable ratings among Independents:

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20-28 unfavourable

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39-17 favourable

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But the district is sooo Republican, that among all voters Balderson is positive at 33-26 and O'Connor too at 34-23.

Still, 42% have no opinion of both candidates a week before the election ...

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, only 32% of their respondents were from Franklin county, look at the crosstabs.

[Zaybay]

Excellent results for O'Connor, he really does have momentum!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Oh yeah, and screw the green party

[Brittain33]

Guys, only 32% of their respondents were from Franklin county, look at the crosstabs.

What should it be?

[Tender Branson]

Guys, only 32% of their respondents were from Franklin county, look at the crosstabs.

What should it be?

Among the early votes cast so far, 39% are from Franklin.

Not sure if this is relevant though, because it's just a small amount of early votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Oh wow, this is looking good.

[KingSweden]

I’m more optimistic than I was a week ago... but I still suspect Balderson wins verrrry narrowly

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Guys, only 32% of their respondents were from Franklin county, look at the crosstabs.

What should it be?

Among the early votes cast so far, 39% are from Franklin.

Not sure if this is relevant though, because it's just a small amount of early votes.

Tender is right on this one, and it was around 32% in the presidential election. Franklin will probably be higher than 32% this time around, but here is the article:

https://www.weeklystandard.com/david-byler/the-2018-election-heads-to-kasich-land

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The one think that gives me hope is the independents. In their last poll for Young Lambchop, they only had 3-4 points undecided. In this poll for Balderson and O'Connor, the undecideds are from just below ten points to just over ten points, and they are breaking heavily for O'Connor. This is why Balderson only went up a couple points from the last poll while O'Connor galloped up basically double digits. If there are truly enough undecideds left and O'Connor can continue getting them at a great rate, we are in a good spot.

A lot of big ifs though.

[john cage bubblegum]

This poll also seems like a reminder that we need to be careful when trying to estimate O'Connor's lead in the early vote just based on party registration.  This sample is 47R-26D on party registration, a testament to how traditionally Republican OH-12 is, and also how well O'Connor is doing among indies.  So a Dem edge of 10 points in early voting share could easily translate to a 20+ point O'Connor lead, although it's no guarantee.  Of course it also matters how high the Other early vote share is.

[MAINEiac4434]

In a race this close, the turnout and enthusiasm among core supporters will make the difference. Tilt O'Connor.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lean R.

[Zaybay]

This poll also seems like a reminder that we need to be careful when trying to estimate O'Connor's lead in the early vote just based on party registration.  This sample is 47R-26D on party registration, a testament to how traditionally Republican OH-12 is, and also how well O'Connor is doing among indies.  So a Dem edge of 10 points in early voting share could easily translate to a 20+ point O'Connor lead, although it's no guarantee.  Of course it also matters how high the Other early vote share is.

Your right about that. After this poll and listening to your observation, this race is tilt O'Connor.

[BuckeyeNut]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Getting desperate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

[Zaybay]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

yeah, this speaks to fear, not to strength. Balderson is seeing some writing on the wall.

[DrScholl]

Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)

It is legal unfortunately.