OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

The thing I'm now eagerly watching for is how well O'Connor does in the precincts that overlap with State House Districts 19, 21, and 24, which are all top pickup opportunities at the moment and represent half of the seats Ohio Democrats need to win over to break the Republican supermajority.

Interesting.... I haven't looked at the OH LD math, let alone followed the OH State House/Senate races, but I do have a ton of raw data, if you're interested in having me pull more detailed precinct stuff later on (After the OH CD-12 Special Election results are published of course ).... 

Definitely interested, after the special.

Feel free to pop over into the Ohio thread when the time comes!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Ed Gillebsy.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DanaHoule/status/1022894642013069312

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DanaHoule/status/1022894642013069312

That should be a no-brainer for every Dem candidate.
Unlike Pelosi, Jordan is a despicable human being.

[Badger]

Vice president Pence held a rally for balderson in Newark today.

[Tender Branson]

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[Antonio the Sixth]

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Wouldn't that count as vote-buying?

[Ebsy]

Today's update. Overall, low number of in person returns today, and with the GOP's typical advantage among mail in absentees, this lead them to eking out a narrow win for the first time. However, as Franklin reports more of today's absentee returns this could well be undone, so don't freak out too much.

[Ebsy]

There are 7 days of absentee voting left, and historical trends suggest that the number of "Other" ballots should dramatically increase in the closing days. Also, there are typically a lot of in person Democratic ballots cast on Saturday and Sunday before the election, the only weekend days when in person early voting is open. Hard to say exactly where O'Connor is going to end up in the early vote, but I think it is likely he ends up winning it 20+ (though the Democratic registration edge may well be lower than that by election day).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vice president Pence held a rally for balderson in Newark today.

The missing Veep holds a rally? Dems have plenty of seats to grab hold onto even if they lose this one.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

[john cage bubblegum]

There are 7 days of absentee voting left, and historical trends suggest that the number of "Other" ballots should dramatically increase in the closing days. Also, there are typically a lot of in person Democratic ballots cast on Saturday and Sunday before the election, the only weekend days when in person early voting is open. Hard to say exactly where O'Connor is going to end up in the early vote, but I think it is likely he ends up winning it 20+ (though the Democratic registration edge may well be lower than that by election day).

Thank you for the regular updates on the OH-12 early vote.  Funny, I was about to ask if there were any tendencies when early voting access is expanded, with additional hours in the final week and weekend voting in that final weekend.

I would guess the extension of early voting hours from 5pm to 7pm during the final week would increase the EV numbers overall, but not with a significant change in the partisan tendencies of the voters.

[Badger]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

Given the number of relocated and, especially, first time voters the other category constitutes, I wouldn't be too worried if I was O'Connor

[Ebsy]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

Given the number of relocated and, especially, first time voters the other category constitutes, I wouldn't be too worried if I was O'Connor

I think this hits the nail on the head. Probably tonight and throughout the week I will have some more analysis of how many of early voters are new registers and also what the return rates are for the various parties across the 7 counties. Expect to see the numbers for the latter tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

[Ebsy]

As you can see, the ballot return rate for Democrats is substantially higher than Republicans and Other voters, possibly indicating a pronounced enthusiasm gap between the two parties in this special election. Additionally, Franklin, Delaware and Licking Counties have higher than average absentee returns, lending credence to the "suburban surge" that O'Connor will need to win.

[Gass3268]

56-32 is not exactly a comforting margin for O'Connor given expected E-Day turnout.

Given the number of relocated and, especially, first time voters the other category constitutes, I wouldn't be too worried if I was O'Connor

I think this hits the nail on the head. Probably tonight and throughout the week I will have some more analysis of how many of early voters are new registers and also what the return rates are for the various parties across the 7 counties. Expect to see the numbers for the latter tonight or tomorrow at the latest.

Do we know what the final early vote numbers looked like here in 2016? I thought I saw on Twitter that it was a pretty decent Republican lead.

[Gass3268]

Trump just tweeted about this race for the third time. This time promoting that Balderson will protect your Social Security and Medicare, which deviates from the typical Trump endorsement template.

[Ebsy]

I've been alerted to the fact that early voting hours are extended this week, so I may be updating today's counts later with the last couple hours of voting, assuming the databases I access update this evening (they may not).

[JG]

Trump just tweeted about this race for the third time. This time promoting that Balderson will protect your Social Security and Medicare, which deviates from the typical Trump endorsement template.

Sounds like a weird way to promote a Republican.

[BuckeyeNut]

Trump just tweeted about this race for the third time. This time promoting that Balderson will protect your Social Security and Medicare, which deviates from the typical Trump endorsement template.

Sounds like a weird way to promote a Republican.

It's also not necessarily a good appeal to the district, even if it is the last bastion of reliable Kasich Republicanism...

[Gass3268]

Looks like Balderson has not done a good job of brining together Republicans:

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1024059851822059520

[Ebsy]

Looks like Balderson has not done a good job of brining together Republicans:

https://twitter.com/darreldrowland/status/1024059851822059520

Like clockwork, Republicans floating possible explanations for a loss here. Still, this could explain why Republican turnout has been particularly anemic in early voting thus far.

[Ebsy]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

[KingSweden]

Looking into this, apparently Balderson's primary opponent, Melanie Leneghan, has filed suit alleging that the primary was rigged in favor of Balderson through fraud in Franklin and Muskingum Counties.

Here is the case on the Ohio Supreme Court docket: http://www.supremecourt.ohio.gov/Clerk/ecms/#/caseinfo/2018/0866

That’s exactly the kind of story Balderson needs heading into next week

[Ebsy]

After reading the complaint, the allegations of improper recount procedures and vote tampering in Muskingum County are actually pretty serious and credible.