OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Badger]

A boon for Troy Balderson in a district where the average of two independent polls indicate the president is popular.

Monmouth 6/11/18

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_061118/

Approval split of 48-47

JMC Analytics 6/17/18

http://winwithjmc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Ohio-12-Executive-Summary.pdf

Approval split of 54-40

Yes, thank you for posting month old polls. Quality analysis, kid

Oh ho ho! Noted Republican RRH poster Andrew 1918 (aka on Atlas as Limo"Liberal") certainly isn't afraid to shame himself with sock account hilarity.

Oh Andrew, you utter jpke, fraud and troll scamp!

[Badger]

O'Connor won't get 48% in Delaware County.

[Badger]

Now that we are rolling into Special Election Season in OH US-REP CD-12 let's take a brief look at a few relevant items....

Let's start with the vote share by County within OH CD-12 Precincts....



So basically the concept of vote share over three election cycles using the topline election (US_PRES '16, OH-GOV '14, US PRES '12) is to be able to adjust data to control for voter turnout differentials as well as population growth rates within a given CD....

Basically, what we see here is that Franklin and Delaware County collectively account for ~ 60% of the Vote Share within the CD, and have essentially been a growing segment of the electorate between '12 and '16....

Licking County has been a consistent ~ 20% of OH CD-12 Vote Share, and obviously will be a major contributor to any CD-12 Special Election Results in August 2018....

The other Four Counties precincts located within CD-12 ('12 > '18 account for the remaing 20% of the Vote Share---- (Marion, Morrow, Muskigum,  and Richland).

Now let's take a peak at the 2012 to 2016 US PRES vote swings by County within CD-12.



So here we see a dramatic increase in Democratic support within the Franklin County portion of CD-12, as well as to a lesser extent within Delaware County, but also some major swings towards Trump in other Counties within the precincts of CD-12....

Now let's look at the raw Total Vote DEM-REP Margin Changes between 2012 and 2016 for US PRES by County...



So here we start to see the raw power of massive swings among the heavily Upper-Income Anglo precincts of Franklin County between '12 and '16....

Honestly, I don't think the 'Pubs have yet hit rock bottom within these Franklin County precincts, but my suspicion is that O'Connor will likely outperform HRC, despite the "Trump Tax Cuts that nobody really experiences in the actual deductions on their Paychecks....

DEMS win '16 US-PRES in Franklin County precincts +36k and +22% Swings even excluding 3rd Party Votes....

Delaware County is obviously Ground Zero.... DEMS don't need to necessarily win Delaware County in CD-12 OH SE results, but just keep the PUB Margins as both % and RAW VOTE down to something more like ~ +7-10k R.... a 54-46 R win in Delaware County might be sufficient for a DEM win in CD-12...

Licking County and Muskigum County are a real test of if a LIB DEM can regain Obama '12 voters that defected to Trump....  Obama narrowly won Muskigum precincts with OH CD-12, and in Licking managed to bag a 42-56 R loss to Romney in '12....

I haven't had a chance to run all of these precinct numbers that I have for OH from '04 > '16, but to me it's starting to look like a potential combo scene between the relatively solidly Republican suburbs of South Pittsburgh moving hard Dem (Delaware County maybe less so???), but with a dramatically growing Dem base within the Franklin County portions of OH CD-12, where you really didn't have any comparison within PA-18 other than one township in South Allegheny (Mt Lebanon) that essentially swung dramatically DEM from '12 to '16 similar to the Franklin County precincts of OH CD-12....

What you did have in PA CD-18 were Ancestral DEMs in the SW portion of the County that although Lamb narrowly lost, he was able to replicate Obama '08 numbers in Fayette and Washington Counties....

At this point we have no real evidence whatsoever that Obama '12 (Or Obama '08 DEMs) will come home for a US House election in Licking and Richland Counties....

I'll continue to run the precinct level numbers, but Trump did have major swings in the Rural and Small Town WWC precincts here, which despite the dramatic swings towards HRC in Franklin, and to a lesser extent Delaware, still makes this a jump ball...

I'll run some more stats later, as I have done with PA-18, AZ-08, AL-SEN and mix in more data that overlaps with US CENSUS Stats in greater detail by Municipality and Township within CD-12....

Thank you as always for an insightful analysis driven post, Nova. FWIW I can answer your question about comparing the Pgh South Hills and Southern Delaware County suburbs. The former is notably more (non-Atlas) blue and shifting harder in that direction than the latter in Ohio.

I didn't realize the Mansfield and Muskingum County portions of the district (relatively small as they are) were so close for Obama. The question I have is, what are the end numbers if O'Conner matches Obama's 2012 margins in the four smaller counties that turned hard to Trump, but maintains Hillary's margins in Franklin and Delaware? Is that enough to actually put him over the top?

As noted by another poster recently, it remains to be seen how much above it's usual 1/3 share of the district's vote Franklin County contributes.

[Badger]

It's a turnout and enthusiasm game so he could meet a reasonable benchmark to win. I could see O'Connor doing somewhat better than the set benchmark in Muskingum which is a county where Obama hit 45% in. With good enthusiasm and turnout he can win this race.

Balderson is from Muskingum County.

So? Being from a particular county doesn't always guarantee a home advantage in this sort of environment.

It doesn't always, but regionalism is very strong in Ohio. O'Connor might do better than the benchmark in Licking, maybe even Richland. But Muskingum would be a jaw-dropping surprise.

Not to mention Balderson represents Muskingum (or at least most of the OH-12 portion) in the State Senate. He's not just some business dude known in the local Kiwanis and Elks.

Still, O'Conner could still realistically hit or even slightly exceed the 41% landmark. He'll probably also exceed the mark in Richland. But he'll need to as, again, he's not hitting the high 40's in Delaware.

[BuckeyeNut]

Other simply means that the absentee ballot was cast by someone who has not voted in a party primary or voted in a minor party primary (there has been one Green party absentee voter).

Ah, so Other is actually likely to be first time Ohio voters (or OH-12 voters? would they be "other " if they moved into the district since the last primary they voted in?), rather than actual 3rd party voters?A shade better for O'Conner if so, as young voters are likely to skew Democratic.

Having voted in three different Congressional jurisdictions since 2012, I can say the answer to your question is yes.

[NOVA Green]

Franklin County is where the Democratic Candidate for OH CD-12 needs to win big in the Special Election in two weeks, or in the General Election this November, if Democrats are going to flip this US House District....

Let's take a more microscopic level of detailed analysis of the Franklin County precincts that account for roughly 33% of the CD vote in an average General Election.

*** EDIT 7/27/18 *** replaced 2014 Vote Share by Place Graph, since I accidentally duplicated the '16 Graph into my Atlas Gallery Embed ****


Let's start with the Vote Share by municipality within Franklin County....



So here we see that the City of Columbus accounts in general for slightly less than 50% of the CD-12 vote Share within Franklin County, within a Presidential Election Year....

What happened in 2014 when it comes to the distribution of vote-share by place within Franklin Co CD-12 precincts???



Here is the same data from 2012....



OK--- to what extent does this really make a huge difference when it comes to the overall vote numbers in CD-12 precincts within Franklin County???

Obviously the only way that Democrats can win this special election in OH CD-12 is to rack up massive numbers within Franklin County, especially within precincts most favorably disposed to voting for a Democratic Candidate for a Federal Election....

In many ways very similar to the Southern Pittsburgh suburbs of South Allegheny County, even the most Democratic Precincts in recent years within Franklin County are relatively new converts to the Democratic Party, and tend to vote heavily Republican in most elections....

Let's take a look at the voter turnout by place 2012 to 2016 within the CD-12 precincts of Franklin County....



Now let's take a look at how Democratic these various municipalities are when it comes to Federal Elections.... Hint at the Statewide level these are overwhelmingly Republican Precincts in recent years....



So, although you will likely need to open the image in a new window to drill down to a level of detail, and working the long factory shifts, haven't really had tons of time to work on the visuals, but what really stands out is this:

Franklin County Precincts of CD-12 are NOT traditionally heavily Democratic at most election levels, even in 2016!!!!

What we see here are a handful of elections where Democrats have performed extremely well in various elections....

Even the precincts of Columbus only really voted heavily Democratic for Presidential Elections in '12 and '16, throw in a US SEN race from '12 with Sherrod, and OH-TREAS race from '14, but overall the results don't look particularly impressive, especially for US-House races....

Meanwhile Dublin looks like a Republican stronghold, with the exception of '16 PRES and '12 SEN, Westerville looks swingy but Lean Rep, and even Worthington generally votes 'Pub for most elections!!!!

Ok--- so now let's take a look at MHI by place within CD-12....



Wow!!! New Albany with an MHI of ~ $185k/yr went from 2012 (34-65 R) +31 R to in 2016            (  48-48* R)   for a +31% D swing....

Ok, not tons of people in these precincts, but still noteworthy...

Dublin clocks in with an MHI of $113.2k/Yr and in 2012 at the PRES level voted (40-59 R) and then in '16 (49-47 D) for a +21% D swing....

Meanwhile within the precincts in Columbus....

In 2016 (63-31 D) vs 2012 (59-39 D) for only a +12% D gain....

Where I'm trying to go here is that really we don't have any real history of even the "Democratic Strongholds" of OH CD-12 voting heavily Democratic, with the exception of the past few Presidential Election cycles plus votes for Sen Brown (D-OH)....

So before Dem avatars start getting too excitable, best not to develop too great a taste for the Hobbit leaf quite yet....

*IF* this election is nationalized in terms of local voting patterns, *AND* Dem Turnout is high, especially within the precincts located within the City of Columbus, and *ALSO* Dem margins in the Special Election within the Franklin County precincts look more like 2016 numbers, we might well have a horse-race....

Personally, my thought is that the OH CD-12 House Race will essentially be nationalized, and many of those Romney > HRC voters that went down-ballot Republican in virtually every election, will likely vote Democratic for the CD-12 Special Election.

Next Stop Delaware or Licking County....

[BudgieForce]

Kasich just endorsed Balderson, unsurprisingly.


https://www.johnkasich.com/blog-posts/gov-john-kasich-endorses-troy-balderson-for-congress/

I dont think it really moves the needle, but makes O'Connors push for moderate republicans slightly tougher.

[Brittain33]

Kasich just endorsed Balderson, unsurprisingly.


https://www.johnkasich.com/blog-posts/gov-john-kasich-endorses-troy-balderson-for-congress/

I dont think it really moves the needle, but makes O'Connors push for moderate republicans slightly tougher.

We will hear a lot about this if Balderson wins by < 3 points which I consider the most likely outcome.

[BudgieForce]

Kasich just endorsed Balderson, unsurprisingly.


https://www.johnkasich.com/blog-posts/gov-john-kasich-endorses-troy-balderson-for-congress/

I dont think it really moves the needle, but makes O'Connors push for moderate republicans slightly tougher.

We will hear a lot about this if Balderson wins by < 3 points which I consider the most likely outcome.

I was under the impression republicans dont really listen to Kasich anymore, hence why I dont think the endorsement matters all the much. If Balderson wins by +3 or more, he was always going to win and no endorsement was going to change that.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Moves this back to tiLt GOP

[BuckeyeNut]

Honestly, Kasich endorsing Balderson could turn some people off.

[BudgieForce]

Moves this back to tiLt GOP

It was already tiLt GOP.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, they changed the ratings, Cook to tossup

[BudgieForce]

No, they changed the ratings, Cook to tossup

Oh, well, Cook isnt going to change its rating based off one endorsement.

[ON Progressive]

No, they changed the ratings, Cook to tossup

Cook doesn't have tilt ratings, and tilt ratings are garbage anyway.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, they changed the ratings, Cook to tossup

Cook doesn't have tilt ratings, and tilt ratings are garbage anyway.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

Cook ratings has OH 12 as a tossup

[Zaybay]

I doubt the Kaisch endorsement will mean much. His popularity stands with Democrats and Indies, not Republicans. In fact, this might scare away the Super Trump Rs from voting for him.

It might peel away some indies, but its 2018, and they are mostly in the D camp, a 5% loss would be nothing, unless, of course, if this all comes down to the final ballots.

[Ebsy]

Today's update. I received updated Morrow County numbers so all numbers are current. Democrats continue to maintain a sizeable lead, with Republicans gaining modestly and Unaffiliated and minor party returns continue to climb.

[Gass3268]

So really it's the "other" that's eating into the Democratic lead. I.e. new voters/new residents to OH-12.

[Ebsy]

So really it's the "other" that's eating into the Democratic lead. I.e. new voters/new residents to OH-12.

About 1/3 of the shift was GOP voters, 2/3 in the Other category. This was entirely expected and in line with past patterns of Other voters turning in their ballots much later than partisans.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Should others break heavy for Danny?

[Tintrlvr]

Should others break heavy for Danny?

To my understanding, "other" should be nearly all people who just didn't vote in the primary. I would assume infrequent voters probably favor the Democrats in this environment (and in most circumstances), but it's hard to be totally certain.

[BuckeyeNut]

Right now, I’d expect O’Connor to lose by about as much as Lamb won by.

[Ebsy]

jao, but Franklin County is maintaining its proportion of the Early Vote as balloting continues, clocking in at around 41%, much higher than its usual proportion of the vote. Definitely an encouraging sign for O'Connor.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Moving this to Likely R.