OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

Low turnout benefits whichever party has the more enthused voters. In the current national environment, that is the Democratic Party.

[136or142]

57.3%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   29,215   
42%   Troy Balderson   GOP   21,390   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   378   
10.7% of precincts reporting (63/591)
50,983 total votes

[new_patomic]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

Connor's lead comes from the EDV, so less actual day voting would benefit him.

Unless you suppose he does unexpectedly well on the EDV.

But I wouldn't bet on that.

[Stranger in a strange land]

WEATHER DOES NOT HAVE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES. IF YOU DON'T VOTE BECAUSE OF RAIN OR HEAT, YOU WEREN'T GOING TO VOTE ANYWAY AND YOU WOULD HAVE FOUND ANOTHER EXCUSE. REALLY PEOPLE, COME ON. ALSO, STEPHEN MILLER IS AN INCEL. HAVE A GOOD NIGHT.

[Virginiá]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

It really depends which party is most enthusiastic about voting. In the Obama years, that was Republicans, now under Trump it is Democrats. It's part of why they have done so well in random legislative specials where turnout is absurdly low.

But yes, the Republican base has a disproportionate amount of people with really high turnout rates,so that does give them an advantage - usually. A caveat being that Democrats seem to have peeled away a lot of white college grads, which is helping them in midterms since they are reliable voters (and WWCs aren't as much).

[new_patomic]

WEATHER DOES NOT HAVE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES. IF YOU DON'T VOTE BECAUSE OF RAIN OR HEAT, YOU WEREN'T GOING TO VOTE ANYWAY AND YOU WOULD HAVE FOUND ANOTHER EXCUSE.

As a Democrat I can confirm that the site of clouds causes economic anxiety.

[Zaybay]

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

Connor's lead comes from the EDV, so less actual day voting would benefit him.

Unless you suppose he does unexpectedly well on the EDV.

But I wouldn't bet on that.

whoops, meant EAV, early action voting. If the EDV is low, then Connor has the lead.

[MAINEiac4434]

WEATHER DOES NOT HAVE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES. IF YOU DON'T VOTE BECAUSE OF RAIN OR HEAT, YOU WEREN'T GOING TO VOTE ANYWAY AND YOU WOULD HAVE FOUND ANOTHER EXCUSE.

Yeah but that one scene in the West Wing

[Antonio the Sixth]

O'Connor's lead falling fast with only 10% of the ED vote in.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1026991697404850181

[libertpaulian]

WEATHER DOES NOT HAVE A STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON ELECTION OUTCOMES. IF YOU DON'T VOTE BECAUSE OF RAIN OR HEAT, YOU WEREN'T GOING TO VOTE ANYWAY AND YOU WOULD HAVE FOUND ANOTHER EXCUSE.

As a Democrat I can confirm that the site of clouds causes economic anxiety.

I hear Ambien is a cure for that.

[BudgieForce]

O'Connor's lead falling fast with only 10% of the ED vote in.

That is 100% expected.

[Nyvin]

O'Connor most definitely made his benchmarks for early voting...he got around 62%.

[Zaybay]

I keep hearing terrible news for O'Connor and good news for him.

Therefore, this race is a pure tossup.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Let's be real, we don't know anything until we get some election day precincts from Delaware County.

[IceSpear]

O'Connor's lead falling fast with only 10% of the ED vote in.

That is 100% expected.

Really? I expected him to rise from a 60 point lead to a 70 point lead!

[NOVA Green]

fwiw... Franklin County does have a pretty cool map that is updated regularly by precinct, unfortunately it doesn't make it easy to break down the overall EV/ED by precinct /Place, so just need to keep refreshing, but problem is that there are so many fracking precincts in the CD-12 portion of the County, I can't chase them down individually in real time....

https://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/elections/

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1026991863633518592

[ajc0918]

DOC pollster:

https://twitter.com/JasonMMcGrath/status/1026992153262809089

[136or142]

57%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   29,767   
42.2%   Troy Balderson   GOP   22,061   
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   389   
12.2% of precincts reporting (72/591)
52,217 total votes

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Let's see what Delaware looks like on the ED vote

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

fwiw... Franklin County does have a pretty cool map that is updated regularly by precinct, unfortunately it doesn't make it easy to break down the overall EV/ED by precinct /Place, so just need to keep refreshing, but problem is that there are so many fracking precincts in the CD-12 portion of the County, I can't chase them down individually in real time....

https://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/elections/

Great find! Thanks!

[136or142]

If you include the write in votes from Delaware County, Joe Biden is in the lead.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Nothing is funnier than the "DEMS ARE DOOMED" comments from random twitter activists on all of GEM and Cohn's tweets.

[Greatblueheron]

I still think Balderson has the edge.