OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1100 on: August 07, 2018, 07:24:10 PM »

How many people will vote for Joe Manchik thinking he is Joe Manchin?

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new_patomic
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1101 on: August 07, 2018, 07:24:14 PM »

Quote from: JacksonHitchcock on August 07, 2018, 07:23:48 PM

I need someone to tell me who is doing better, who is overperforming and who is underperforming

Everyone, No One, Us.

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1102 on: August 07, 2018, 07:24:35 PM »

Quote from: libertpaulian on August 07, 2018, 07:23:52 PM

I like this rural counties coming in first thing. Let the Baldyheads think their guy is winning, then do a big Democratic dump toward the end of the vote count.

Yeah the three rural "M" counties are all that's really reporting so far

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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1103 on: August 07, 2018, 07:24:36 PM »

We're finally getting some ED vote, and O'Connor's lead has receded to 24 points (but all the precincts reporting are from outlying Republican counties).

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1104 on: August 07, 2018, 07:25:20 PM »

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1105 on: August 07, 2018, 07:27:01 PM »

Franklin trickling in now...

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NOVA Green
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1106 on: August 07, 2018, 07:27:31 PM »

Quote from: JacksonHitchcock on August 07, 2018, 07:23:48 PM

I need someone to tell me who is doing better, who is overperforming and who is underperforming

Problem with OH CD-12 is that we really don't have any historical data for EV vs ED vote, with the exception of Franklin County, and even there the data is extremely limited....

We have *GENERAL* assumptions regarding Ohio EV/ED % numbers writ-large historically, but this doesn't necessarily easily translate to a Special Election / Off-Year Election within OH CD-12 that really hasn't received this level of attention for literally Decades....

At this point we're all in wait and see mode, until we start getting more ED data from various Counties....

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136or142
Adam T
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1107 on: August 07, 2018, 07:27:38 PM »

61.2%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   24,078
38%    Troy Balderson   GOP   14,957
0.8%   Joe Manchik   GP   295

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1108 on: August 07, 2018, 07:30:15 PM »

Get ready, it's about to tighten.

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JG
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1109 on: August 07, 2018, 07:31:08 PM »

Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 07:30:15 PM

Get ready, it's about to tighten.

I honestly didn't expect Balderson to outperform Trump.

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1110 on: August 07, 2018, 07:31:54 PM »

Quote from: JG on August 07, 2018, 07:31:08 PM

Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 07:30:15 PM

Get ready, it's about to tighten.

I honestly didn't expect Balderson to outperform Trump.

Trump got 38% overall, Baldy is at 42% with EDay only. Not sure of combined.

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1111 on: August 07, 2018, 07:32:56 PM »

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new_patomic
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1112 on: August 07, 2018, 07:32:59 PM »

Per SoS site

Troy Balderson (R) 20,167 42.59%
Danny O'Connor (D) 26,836 56.67%
Total Votes Cast 47,354
49/591 Reporting

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JG
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1113 on: August 07, 2018, 07:33:17 PM »

Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 07:31:54 PM

Quote from: JG on August 07, 2018, 07:31:08 PM

Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 07:30:15 PM

Get ready, it's about to tighten.

I honestly didn't expect Balderson to outperform Trump.

Trump got 38% overall, Baldy is at 42% with EDay only. Not sure of combined.

Oh sorry, apparently, I can't read. Thanks for the correction!

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Xing
xingkerui
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1114 on: August 07, 2018, 07:33:48 PM »

This is based on 6 precincts in Franklin, not all of the ED vote. Chill, guys.

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136or142
Adam T
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1115 on: August 07, 2018, 07:34:06 PM »

56.7%   Danny O'Connor   Dem   27,407
42.6%   Troy Balderson   GOP   20,596
0.7%   Joe Manchik   GP   361

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GeorgiaModerate
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1116 on: August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM »

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

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new_patomic
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1117 on: August 07, 2018, 07:35:40 PM »

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1118 on: August 07, 2018, 07:36:13 PM »

Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:35:40 PM

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

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Badger
badger
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1119 on: August 07, 2018, 07:36:47 PM »

Quote from: ajc0918 on August 07, 2018, 07:32:56 PM

It depends entirely where these precincts in Richland are from. Much of the most Republican parts of it are not in the district. Where is the City of Mansfield, which is still rather Democratic, is.

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libertpaulian
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1120 on: August 07, 2018, 07:36:53 PM »

Quote from: Solid4096 on August 07, 2018, 07:36:13 PM

Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:35:40 PM

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

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ajc0918
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1121 on: August 07, 2018, 07:37:15 PM »

OConnor's pollster says they're meeting benchmark in Baldy's home county:

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new_patomic
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1122 on: August 07, 2018, 07:37:23 PM »

Quote from: Solid4096 on August 07, 2018, 07:36:13 PM

Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:35:40 PM

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Wouldn't that mean the EV is less than 20% of the total vote?

That's not good news for O'Connor.

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Zaybay
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Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1123 on: August 07, 2018, 07:37:55 PM »

Quote from: libertpaulian on August 07, 2018, 07:36:53 PM

Quote from: Solid4096 on August 07, 2018, 07:36:13 PM

Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:35:40 PM

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Isn't it high turnout that usually favors Democrats?

Connor's lead comes from the EDV, so less actual day voting would benefit him.

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JG
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Posts: 1,146

Re: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

« Reply #1124 on: August 07, 2018, 07:38:13 PM »

Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:37:23 PM

Quote from: Solid4096 on August 07, 2018, 07:36:13 PM

Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:35:40 PM

Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 07, 2018, 07:34:37 PM

Nate Cohn is estimating a total turnout of 220K based on results so far.

Ouch.

Low turnout. Seems like good news for O Connor.

Wouldn't that mean the EV is less than 20% of the total vote?

That's not good news for O'Connor.

Cohn said it would be around 16%, so yeah, not great news.

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