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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections
  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +14 (LV)
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Author Topic: VA-Quinnipiac: Northam +14 (LV)  (Read 2373 times)
Brittain33
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« on: October 18, 2017, 11:05:59 am »

Northam 53 (+2)
Gillespie 39 (-2)
Hyra 2


https://poll.qu.edu/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=2493

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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: October 18, 2017, 11:09:42 am »

At least we know they are not hearding.

Thank God for averages!
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: October 18, 2017, 11:09:47 am »

So Va is going to be interesting on a election night inst it?
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Yank2133
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« Reply #3 on: October 18, 2017, 11:12:46 am »

Northam is likely up 5-6 points.
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Arch
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« Reply #4 on: October 18, 2017, 11:13:29 am »

Likely R → Safe D

#Atlas
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#Klobmentum
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« Reply #5 on: October 18, 2017, 11:23:29 am »

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: October 18, 2017, 11:26:11 am »

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.

Monmouth and Quinnipiac actually play each other in basketball in December. Decide it on the court!
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DrScholl
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« Reply #7 on: October 18, 2017, 11:27:11 am »

Of course, this poll is going to be labeled fake because it doesn't fit the Republican narrative.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #8 on: October 18, 2017, 11:29:43 am »

Great Poll!
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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2017, 11:30:33 am »

Lol this is an outliner northam in his internal polls is up but in the margin of error.
No republican or Democrat is winning Virginia by 14 points this election itís going to be 3 points max for both Gillespie and northam.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #10 on: October 18, 2017, 11:36:13 am »

N+14 isnít going to happen, but G+1 likely wonít either. Just throw it all in the average.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #11 on: October 18, 2017, 11:36:45 am »

So...where exactly is the race now? Some polls say Northam has gained. Some polls say that he is still where he was in August, with little change. And some polls see Gillespie gaining ground. Well, at least theres no chance of hearding...
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Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #12 on: October 18, 2017, 11:42:20 am »

Lol this is an outliner northam in his internal polls is up but in the margin of error.
No republican or Democrat is winning Virginia by 14 points this election itís going to be 3 points max for both Gillespie and northam.

I thought you said Gillespie would win by exactly 48.73-48.31 or something
48.72 to 48.31 but what I meant by that is itís at most a 3 point race even that is being to nice to both sides.
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Not_A_Man
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« Reply #13 on: October 18, 2017, 11:48:37 am »

Quinnipiac continues it's trend in VA as the outlier.  Average is about Northam +2-4 or around there.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #14 on: October 18, 2017, 12:37:49 pm »

Someone's gonna look stupid in 2 or so weeks. Question is, is it Monmouth or Quinnipiac. My money's on Monmouth.


Both.

The only safe prediction
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #15 on: October 18, 2017, 01:14:20 pm »

Quinnipiac continues it's trend in VA as the outlier.  Average is about Northam +2-4 or around there.

Well now itís around Northam +5/6
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« Reply #16 on: October 18, 2017, 01:17:42 pm »

The difference between these polls is mostly what sample ends up being used. This was a D+10 sample. The R+1 sample the other day was R+2 sample.

The consistency between these polls is Northam being up among independents. He was down among independents a few months ago.

VA 2013 was D+5
VA 2014 was D+0
VA 2016 was D+7

I'm not sure what the turnout will be in 2016, but I'd imagine it'd be at least D+3 in a Trump off-year. And if Gillepsie is losing independents, that is a bad sign.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2017, 01:21:21 pm »

While there's no scenario where Northam wins by 14 points, the trends in this poll are useful. Their last poll showed Northam +10, and this represents a gain from that, casting doubt on Monmouth's finding that things are getting better than Gillespie. Also this can't be good for Gillespie:

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Also this:

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krazen1211
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« Reply #18 on: October 18, 2017, 01:51:16 pm »
« Edited: October 18, 2017, 03:02:07 pm by Brittain33 »

I do not believe that Quinnipiac is a reliable pollster. In the 2016 election, it reported that IA was tied.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: October 18, 2017, 03:40:09 pm »

Well, that's a relief. For a modest Northam lead you'd expect outliers like this and Monmouth.

How hilarious would it be though if this and the WaPo poll actually were accurate, and Northam ended up winning by more than Murphy.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: October 18, 2017, 03:52:20 pm »

Well, that's a relief. For a modest Northam lead you'd expect outliers like this and Monmouth.

How hilarious would it be though if this and the WaPo poll actually were accurate, and Northam ended up winning by more than Murphy.

It'd mean that Democrats probably gain over 10 HoD seats easily.

If Northam wins by double digits, the Democrats would easily take the HoD.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #21 on: October 19, 2017, 09:06:32 am »

Outlier. Just like the Gillipsie +1 poll. I think the election will end up 50-45% for Northam, possibly 49-44%.
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #22 on: October 19, 2017, 03:17:30 pm »

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #23 on: October 19, 2017, 04:50:17 pm »

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.

Seeing a lot of Republican lawn signs?
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America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗
TexArkana
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« Reply #24 on: October 19, 2017, 05:01:22 pm »

Mark my words, as someone who lives in Virginia and NOVA particularly: Northam is probably going to win, but by no more than 6-8% at the most. My prediction right now would be Northam +3.5 in fact.

Neither candidate is going to win by a double digit margin, that is absurd.

Seeing a lot of Republican lawn signs?
I've seen a lot of Northam lawn signs, but keep in mind I live in a liberal area.
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