"Establishment" states and "populist" states

[America Needs Jesus Christ]

"Establishment" and "populist" are really vague terms and terrible ways to understand intraparty divides.  More moderate versus more ideologically extreme might be a better divide, because it's possible to be very far right/left ideologically but friendly to the establishment (eg. Pence) or ideologically moderate but very populist (eg. Trump, at least in his campaign).

An example of an ideologically extreme but establishment state is Wisconsin, especially on the GOP side.  Its Republican and Democratic bases are both fairly ideologically extreme, but are just there in relatively equal numbers (hence Senators Ron Johnson and Tammy Baldwin and Governor Scott Walker).  But, it went strongly for Cruz (who was the "establishment" candidate- but also quite conservative- at that point) in the primary and none of its elected officials seem to be in the Trumpist populist wing of the party, even if all their Republicans are quite conservative.

[America Needs Jesus Christ]

An "establishment" voter is more likely to re-elect an incumbant while a "populist" voter is more likely to vote for a primary challenger.

I don't like that definition either.  Assuming he wins, does Roy Moore become establishment?  What about a hypothetical Kasich primary challenge to Trump?