Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Badger]

Ipsos/Reuters, Feb 11-15, 1529 adults

Approve 40 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (-1)

No sign that any of the so-called "disastrous" past few weeks have had any effect on Trump's approval. If anything, it keeps going up.

Mods please ban for terrible trolling.

Seconded.  It's bad enough that we have trolls; incompetent trolls are even worse.

Thirded

[Badger]

It went up because of the tax bill and the SOTU.

The tax bill was unpopular though.

It was unpopular before it was passed. A lot of Republicans are just happy he got a legislative accomplishment through. Its reception was surprisingly positive since.

 this is very true.

[Gustaf]

I think it was 538 that said that specifically Trump's approval improvement (slight tongue-twister there) was driven by a bump in approval from Republican voters. When you think about it, that makes sense. At his low-point you had two big things: failure on healthcare and the Roy Moore stuff. Both of these are less partisan issues and more competence/basic morality. It makes sense that this drove away some Republicans who are otherwise generally fine with Trump's agenda. Once he got tax-cuts through they came back.

To the extent that this is true I think it speaks against Democratic panic because those voters were never likely to remain permanently anti-Trump or, even if they did, not end up voting Republican. As long as Democrats remain fired up against Trump and independents are largely opposed it's not a great outlook for them.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/
Trump at 49/49 in Texas

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/
Trump at 49/49 in Texas

Being tied in a state you won by 9% doesn't seem like good news for Trump, to me. even if it's better than what some older polls have shown.

[Virginiá]

I can't help but feel like pbrower2a's map posts are growing exponentially in height.

[pbrower2a]

I can't help but feel like pbrower2a's map posts are growing exponentially in height.

I have three maps. Two of them don't change, and two of them change as I add polls. California and New York are almost never interesting in their polling, and Texas rarely is. It  is now.

I had 36 points for Texas to reflect the electoral votes. The Eyes of Texas are upon this President, and they seem to not like what they see.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Trump's Gallup rating falls at 37/59.
Apparently the Porter saga and the Parkland shooting are starting to taking their toll.

[LimoLiberal]

Trump's Gallup rating falls at 37/59.
Apparently the Porter saga and the Parkland shooting are starting to taking their toll.

Beautiful. Hope that other polling will corroborate this trend.

[pbrower2a]

Trump's Gallup rating falls at 37/59.
Apparently the Porter saga and the Parkland shooting are starting to taking their toll.

Beautiful. Hope that other polling will corroborate this trend.

We shall see soon enough what the old, unimproved Donald Trump does soon enough in subsequent polling, won't we?

[Doimper]

I miss daily Gallup polls, and the horde of posters that would descend on them and proclaim that <x change in net approval from the previous day> proved <theory about latest controversial Trump action>

[Holmes]

I miss daily Gallup polls, and the horde of posters that would descend on them and proclaim that <x change in net approval from the previous day> proved <theory about latest controversial Trump action>

I miss when his numbers would drop 5% based off one day's sample and everyone would flip out. Good times.

[BlueSwan]

I miss daily Gallup polls, and the horde of posters that would descend on them and proclaim that <x change in net approval from the previous day> proved <theory about latest controversial Trump action>

I miss when his numbers would drop 5% based off one day's sample and everyone would flip out. Good times.

Don't worry, we'll get plenty of that in 2020.

[Young Conservative]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/
Trump at 49/49 in Texas

I doubt Abott’s Approval is that low. This poll seems Dem leaning.

[pbrower2a]

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/19/uttt-poll-texas-republican-voters-remain-high-trump/
Trump at 49/49 in Texas

I doubt Abott’s Approval is that low. This poll seems Dem leaning.

His approval is within a reasonable range for re-election. Typically one can add 6% to an approval poll before the primary season and get a fair estimate of the pol's share of the vote in the upcoming election. The 6# comes from the assumption that the pol will wage a spirited and competent campaign, having done so to get re-elected.  Of course I see Ted Cruz in trouble; add 6% to his 41% approval rating and one gets 47%. Of course, that election is almost three years away, so there is much time for Senator John Cornyn to recover from bad current polling; he has his work cut out.

It is not enough to say "But this is Texas". I was slow to accept that West Virginia, a state that had regularly voted Democratic for President except in Republican lanslides, could go to Dubya in a close election. I pooh-poohed the early polls suggesting that Barack Obama could win Virginia in 2008. 
If you want to argue with a poll, then do so on flawed methodology or overt bias. Polls commissioned or done by advocacy groups (let us say, a poll by a labor union or by a trade association) is suspect. A poll from a company with a poor record of accuracy in polling results can be faulted.

This poll comes from the well-respected University of Texas, so one can assume some quality control. I trust a poll from a major college unless I find evidence to believe otherwise. If I saw a poll from the University of Indiana or Notre Dame University polling Indiana, I would accept it at face value.

Truth be told, I don't really trust any poll of Texas because the state is so diverse and because it straddles regions. There is no good analogue for Texas in any other state. 

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen is at 46-53, which is its lowest level in at least a week, I believe.

[Doimper]

Rasmussen is at 46-53, which is its lowest level in at least a week, I believe.

Collapse.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

Rasmussen is at 46-53, which is its lowest level in at least a week, I believe.

American goldfish no longer noticing the tax bill? Shaky stock market a few weeks ago shaking confidence in the economy? Parkland slump? Hmm...

[Gass3268]

PPP-Wisconsin:

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Source

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Trump's problem is twitter. His approval rating tracks the frequency with which he tweets embarrassing unpresidential takes on current events.

[Doimper]

PPP-Wisconsin:

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Source

Better than I would've thought.

[Gass3268]

PPP-Wisconsin:

Approve 44%
Disapprove 52%

Source

Better than I would've thought.

PPP, like all robopollers, have leaned to the right the entirety of Trump's presidency. The main thing in this poll is that Scott Walker's approval is almost identical to Trump's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen is at 46-53, which is its lowest level in at least a week, I believe.

Yes, it's the lowest since Feb. 1 (45/53).  Also interesting is that strong approval/disapproval is 31/45 (-14), the lowest since Jan. 31.  The "strong" gap had closed to as narrow as -3 during Trump's bump earlier this month.

[Hollywood756]

I'm not great at reading polls. There's 2% with no opinion, and only 14% that aren't on the far ends of approval or disapproval?

are those numbers unusually small?

[GeorgiaModerate]

I'm not great at reading polls. There's 2% with no opinion, and only 14% that aren't on the far ends of approval or disapproval?

are those numbers unusually small?

Today's numbers are (source):

Total approve: 46.   Total disapprove 53:  Strongly approve: 31.  Strongly disapprove: 45.  That's all they report, but we can build the whole picture from there: (possibly with minor variations in the last digit due to rounding):

Strongly approve: 31.
Somewhat approve: 15.
Somewhat disapprove: 8.
Strongly disapprove: 45.
No opinion/refused: 1.

Rasmussen typically has 98-100% of respondents with some opinion.  I would assume they either push leaners hard (some pollsters do, some don't) or are excluding the "no opinions" from the totals.

The proportion of strong opinions is typical for Trump.  He tends to engender strong feelings either way.