Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Gass3268]

Minus the tweet from Ari Fleischer.

Rasmusssen 2/1

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-1)

[KingSweden]

He rebounded from his absolute low during January. Question is - does he leave the fairly stable 36-40 range he’s stayed in for most of the last year?

[BudgieForce]

He dips and rebounds every other month. At this point, it's noise until proven otherwise.

[HisGrace]

He dips and rebounds every other month. At this point, it's noise until proven otherwise.

If the low 40's is a "rebound" that tells you the shape he's in.

[pbrower2a]

He dips and rebounds every other month. At this point, it's noise until proven otherwise.

If the low 40's is a "rebound" that tells you the shape he's in.

It's the disapproval number that  matters more. Almost any pol can turn some doubters into accepters. Disapproval is rejection, and rejection is hard to undo.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

He rebounded from his absolute low during January. Question is - does he leave the fairly stable 36-40 range he’s stayed in for most of the last year?

This seems more like the peak in late September, given that the Mueller investigation seems to be picking up steam.  Time will tell, but I think we'll go back to that old equilibrium.

[KingSweden]

He rebounded from his absolute low during January. Question is - does he leave the fairly stable 36-40 range he’s stayed in for most of the last year?

This seems more like the peak in late September, given that the Mueller investigation seems to be picking up steam.  Time will tell, but I think we'll go back to that old equilibrium.

Quite possibly! I just think discussions of a “surge” (or alternatively a collapse) are premature when we have yet to see substantial evidence that he’s left what’s been a rather stable range

[LimoLiberal]

Another poll showing a shift to Trump.

Survey Monkey 1/31

Approve: 44 (+4)
Disapprove: 54 (-4)

Previous poll was a week ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker

Approve 44 (+4)
Disapprove 55 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (+3)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)

[BudgieForce]

I give it 2 weeks.

[super6646]

Trump is up to 42% among registered voters according to 538. Pretty good... well at least for trump. Could be a tax bill bump, but he needs all the improvement he can get (and a more restrained mouth) if he wants a chance in 2020.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Trump is up to 42% among registered voters according to 538. Pretty good... well at least for trump. Could be a tax bill bump, but he needs all the improvement he can get (and a more restrained mouth) if he wants a chance in 2020.

I don't think there is a tax reform bump, we're not seeing huge shifts to Trump, just statistical noise.

[LimoLiberal]

Another poll showing a shift to Trump.

Survey Monkey 1/31

Approve: 44 (+4)
Disapprove: 54 (-4)

Previous poll was a week ago.

It looks like they did an even more recent poll.

Survey Monkey 2/1

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 53 (-1)

[super6646]

Trump is up to 42% among registered voters according to 538. Pretty good... well at least for trump. Could be a tax bill bump, but he needs all the improvement he can get (and a more restrained mouth) if he wants a chance in 2020.

I don't think there is a tax reform bump, we're not seeing huge shifts to Trump, just statistical noise.

Ehhh... well just about every poll is showing him do better, even if it is by a small bump. If it drops down in the next week or so, it probably is just noise.

[BlueSwan]

I for one believe that there is a Trump "bump" of sorts due to several factors:

1) People are getting tired of the Russia scandal.

2) People are getting used to Trumps style or just can't get worked up over it anymore.

3) Republicans on the fence are deciding that Trump in the white house at least gets them SOME results that they like - like the tax bill.

4) Trump has appeared somewhat less erratic of late - or maybe that is just us getting used to his blowhard style.

5) The economy is still doing well.

6) Trump and the GOP are very good at selling their victories, unlike the dems who were constantly running from Obamacare instead of touting their accomplishments.

7) The #Metoo movement has run amok, which scares away moderates and semi-comservatives who might be tempted to vote for dems over Trump.

[Sir Mohamed]

The recent FBI feud will bring him down to 37% again.

[King Lear]

I for one believe that there is a Trump "bump" of sorts due to several factors:

1) People are getting tired of the Russia scandal.

2) People are getting used to Trumps style or just can't get worked up over it anymore.

3) Republicans on the fence are deciding that Trump in the white house at least gets them SOME results that they like - like the tax bill.

4) Trump has appeared somewhat less erratic of late - or maybe that is just us getting used to his blowhard style.

5) The economy is still doing well.

6) Trump and the GOP are very good at selling their victories, unlike the dems who were constantly running from Obamacare instead of touting their accomplishments.

7) The #Metoo movement has run amok, which scares away moderates and semi-comservatives who might be tempted to vote for dems over Trump.

This is excellent analysis, I agree with you on all 7 of those reasons. However, I would like to comment further on the last one, because I don’t think Democrats understand how damaging the #Metoo movement could be to their party, if they become perceived as a Party that believes any Man touching a Women (even if by accident or in a consensual manner), should have their reputation destroyed. The last thing Democrats should want is to become viewed as the Sex police, because that’s spose to be the role of the Republicans (White Evangelicals, Catholics, and Mormons), who want Abortion, Birth Control, and Homosexuality to be outlawed, not the Democrats who are spose to be the party that’s not scared of Sex.

[Mike Thick]

Can’t post a link, but Rassy has him jumping to 49%

[here2view]

The little bump he's getting really doesn't matter, even if it's not statistical noise. Trump still has had >50% disapproval ratings since March 2017, according to 538. A bump of a percent or two may help save a few seats at best this November, but he's not winning re-election in 2020 if he's not around 45% approval. He could get there, but he's fluctuated between 38-42% for the majority of his term.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Can’t post a link, but Rassy has him jumping to 49%

Oh god talk about an outlier

[BudgieForce]

Ew Rasmussen. 90% chance Trump tweets about it.

[henster]

Interesting how Ras always has rosy numbers for Trump on Fridays the last day they poll of the week giving RW outlets plenty of time to report on it before it changes again.

[BudgieForce]

Interesting how Ras always has rosy numbers for Trump on Fridays the last day they poll of the week giving RW outlets plenty of time to report on it before it changes again.

Good tracking polls don't move 10 points overnight. Either it was done on purpose or rassys sample is that awful.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting how Ras always has rosy numbers for Trump on Fridays the last day they poll of the week giving RW outlets plenty of time to report on it before it changes again.

That assertion isn't supported by their actual results.  Yes, the Friday result is sometimes the highest of the week; but it's also sometimes the lowest of the week, and sometimes in the middle of the week's range.  This is exactly what you'd expect as normal variation.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/trump_administration/trump_approval_index_history

[GeorgiaModerate]

Interesting how Ras always has rosy numbers for Trump on Fridays the last day they poll of the week giving RW outlets plenty of time to report on it before it changes again.

Good tracking polls don't move 10 points overnight. Either it was done on purpose or rassys sample is that awful.

We have on occasion seen their average take a sudden dip or rise (obviously due to an outlier sample), and then correct over the next few days.