Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Dr. Arch]

Rasmussen 1/25

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 54 (-1)

Quoting without commentary so people don't have to ready Limo's trash.

Thanks for your sacrifice.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Rasmussen 1/25

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 54 (-1)

Quoting without commentary so people don't have to read Limo's trash.

[KingSweden]

Rasmussen 1/25

Approve: 45 (+1)
Disapprove: 54 (-1)

Quoting without commentary so people don't have to ready Limo's trash.

Thanks for your sacrifice.

[emailking]

I've been here 14 years and I'm pretty sure I've never put anyone on ignore, other than maybe as an experiment. It's not hard to read past stuff you don't want to read. Maybe I'm practiced at it or something, but just try it. It's not hard. For me Limo's comments blend it with a lot of other stuff on this forum, and I don't even notice it as a problem other than the fact that people are constantly complaining about it.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac:

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Source

Trump's numbers have been pretty sable since about the end of August with Q.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quinnipiac:

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Source

Trump's numbers have been pretty sable since about the end of August with Q.

SURGE!!!!!!!!!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac:

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Source

Trump's numbers have been pretty sable since about the end of August with Q.

Strongly approve/disapprove is 28/52.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac:

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Source

Trump's numbers have been pretty sable since about the end of August with Q.

If this poll represents reality and the national trend that I see in my approval map, then I can imagine President Trump losing the popular vote at least 45-55 with much less interstate polarization.

[Crumpets]

Quinnipiac:

Approve 36% (-2)
Disapprove 58% (+1)

Source

Trump's numbers have been pretty sable since about the end of August with Q.

If this poll represents reality and the national trend that I see in my approval map, then I can imagine President Trump losing the popular vote at least 45-55 with much less interstate polarization.

Trump lost the popular vote 46-54 in the last election. It doesn't mean a thing unless the opposition is unified.

[Gallatine]

I've been here 14 years and I'm pretty sure I've never put anyone on ignore, other than maybe as an experiment. It's not hard to read past stuff you don't want to read. Maybe I'm practiced at it or something, but just try it. It's not hard. For me Limo's comments blend it with a lot of other stuff on this forum, and I don't even notice it as a problem other than the fact that people are constantly complaining about it.

Limo's a lot more bearable if you pretend all his posts are sarcastic.

Anyway, looks like Trump's going down again, just a little.

[henster]

OHIO 43/52

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/poll_shows_richard_cordray_nar.html

[pbrower2a]

OHIO 43/52

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/poll_shows_richard_cordray_nar.html

The poll was commissioned by the 1984 Society, a nonprofit, bipartisan group of former Ohio Senate employees and senators who wanted good independent polling for the political community. It was conducted via phone interviews by Fallon Research with a sample size of 801 and a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.

.....


 

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ohio has offered no poll since the 2016 election, and it is the bellwether state. It looks as if it will go against Donald Trump in 2020.  Note that my estimate for Trump is a ceiling based solely upon disapproval, which is a conservative estimate. 

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

Note -- if Trump is underwater in the polling, then the results come out in pink.    

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14% in a normal election, but my estimate (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election nationwide.  
 
  

Fully half (25) states now show recent polls...  If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. Wishful thinking and two dollars + tax will get you a two-dollar cup of coffee. Two dollars + tax will get you the same cup of coffee even without wishful thinking.

The 2020  election will not be a 50-50 contest or even close. Even the historically 'average' opponent will defeat President Trump decisively.

Of course I would love to see polls of Arizona, Florida*, Georgia, Ohio, and Pennsylvania... and maybe Texas. Trump stands to lose states that Republicans simply do not lose in Presidential elections. Note that 100-DIS is an estimate of the ceiling for the President in a re-election bid...

it is tough to win a state in which one's disapproval rating is above 50%.

*A Florida poll from October was awful for Trump.

[LimoLiberal]

OHIO 43/52

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/poll_shows_richard_cordray_nar.html

He won Ohio 52-44. Godawful number for him, and suggests great things for Sherrod.

[Devout Centrist]

OHIO 43/52

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/poll_shows_richard_cordray_nar.html

He won Ohio 52-44. Godawful number for him, and suggests great things for Sherrod.

you said that this same poll was horrible news for Sherrod in another thread.

Bye bye Sherrod.

[Dr. Arch]

OHIO 43/52

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/poll_shows_richard_cordray_nar.html

He won Ohio 52-44. Godawful number for him, and suggests great things for Sherrod.

you said that this same poll was horrible news for Sherrod in another thread.

Bye bye Sherrod.

He's clearly just trolling at this point, and mods have done nothing yet.

[Doimper]

OHIO 43/52

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/01/poll_shows_richard_cordray_nar.html

He won Ohio 52-44. Godawful number for him, and suggests great things for Sherrod.

you said that this same poll was horrible news for Sherrod in another thread.

Bye bye Sherrod.

He's clearly just trolling at this point, and mods have done nothing yet.

There are a dozen trolls and other assorted sh**theads on this site that should've been banned ages ago. This site's moderation is a dumpster fire.

[GeorgiaModerate]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Jan 18-24, 14166 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+2)

[KingSweden]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Jan 18-24, 14166 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+2)

Glorious Shutdown Surge. These numbers are terrible for Dems.

[pbrower2a]

SurveyMonkey weekly tracker, Jan 18-24, 14166 adults

Approve 40 (-2)
Disapprove 58 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 47 (+2)

Glorious Shutdown Surge. These numbers are terrible for Dems.

Too small for deriving any conclusions, as the differences are within the margin of error.

What is telling is the statewide polls. Most of the President's loss in support so far as I see is from where Republicans had a large cushion in 2016, and really since 2008. But -- he's running out of cushion in such places.

President Trump shows an apparent gain against Cook PVI in only one state in which it can matter -- but that, I am told, results from polls that some posters deprecate.

As I see things, I can project expectations of the 2020 election based upon either

(1) recent polls
(2) patterns from latter-middle 2017, and (now for rather few states)
(3) analogies in similar states
(4) electoral behavior in 2008, 2012, or 2016.

I'm going with polls from earlier in the year for Arizona, Florida, and Texas here. I did reject a favorability poll for Texas from a liberal advocacy group, but this is similar to some earlier polls of Texas. I am going to cut back what looks like an event-influenced poll in Georgia (calling African countries a vile word from which some ugly implications arise about black people -- every white Georgian knows some good black people). This may fade some, but I don't see it disappearing completely. You do not compare whole ethnic groups to feces.

In this map red is for likely D wins, blue is for likely R wins, and white is for statistical ties  for states for which I have polling data. Dark shades are for wins of 10% or more, medium shades are for wins of 5% to 9%, and pale shades are for margins of 1% to 4%. I am using criteria (1) and (2) alone here.

If President Trump has a disapproval rating of 50% or higher now in any state, then he has at least a 95% chance of losing that state in a binary election. Trump is underwater enough in Minnesota that I see no way in which he can win it.

So0me states are really easy to fill in. 

OK. We can be very certain about such states as Idaho and Wyoming going R... and NE-03 even if we have no polling data at all. On the other side, there is no reason to believe that any of Connecticut, Delaware, Dee Cee, Hawaii, Illinois, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, or Washington will be anything but deep Atlas Red. But I have some question about Utah. Utah Democrats might decide not to waste a vote on the Democratic nominee for President if they can throw the electoral votes of Utah to some dissident conservative running against Donald Trump who has the endorsement of the LDS Church. I'm putting Utah in dark green for that reason. Trump got only 45% or so of the total vote in Utah in 2016, and his personal life is decidedly un-Mormon.

Orange and green indicate some potential for controversy.  Least controversial here will be that Maine (which is a lot like New Hampshire), Nevada, and New Mexico will go D by high single digits. Those states will be in orange, with ME-02 in pale orange because it did go to President Trump in 2016. In view of the recent poll of Ohio, I must put Pennsylvania in a middle shade of orange. 

At this point I can be a bit more daring about the remaining eight states and two remaining Congressional districts of Nebraska. I will give a middle-green shade to Alaska, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota, and to NE-01. I'm not saying that these states will be in play, but I think the usual margins for Republican nominees will be pared this time. I have no idea of how much. I will be charitable with Republicans on Indiana, South Carolina, and NE-02 for now... pale green... until I see something to the contrary.   

I expect green shades to go to blue and orange shades to go to red on subsequent projections.  That's not to say that I have no doubts. Trump support so far as I have sen is declining most in the states that he won by the largest margins, and I expect that to hold true in the Plains states usually solid R.   

[LimoLiberal]

Rasmussen 1/26

Approve: 44 (-1)
Disapprove: 55 (+1)

[Pericles]

Rasmussen 1/26

Approve: 44 (-1)
Disapprove: 55 (+1)

The collapse continues.

[KingSweden]

Rasmussen 1/26

Approve: 44 (-1)
Disapprove: 55 (+1)

Thank you for posting just the numbers without your whiplash commentary

[pbrower2a]

A story from the Salt Lake City Tribune in discussing a US House race shows that the approval of Donald Trump statewide in Utah  is at 48% (Dan Jones Polling). Nothing is said of the disapproval rating.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

A story from the Salt Lake City Tribune in discussing a US House race shows that the approval of Donald Trump statewide in Utah  is at 48% (Dan Jones Polling). Nothing is said of the disapproval rating.

It's probably something like 48-46 Approve.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

A story from the Salt Lake City Tribune in discussing a US House race shows that the approval of Donald Trump statewide in Utah  is at 48% (Dan Jones Polling). Nothing is said of the disapproval rating.

This poll (from 2-3 weeks ago) has his approvals among Mormons roughly consistent with those of mainline Protestants

You must be logged in to read this quote.

(apologies if this was already posted)
also lol this poll has Trump's support with Muslims around 18% which I find a tad high, unless I'm really underestimating the proportion of Muslims who are refugees fleeing ISIS who value destroying ISIS above all else

Also for what it's worth, during the shutdown Gary Herbert put out a hackish statement saying that the administration handled Utah matters with the shut down with much more care than Obama did in 2013, saying that the administration was very proactive about reaching out to him and figuring out how to help state services in that time. I don't know if that happened soon enough to effect the poll you're citing.

I would guess that, for all of Trump's buffoonery, he will get a boost in Utah for the forseeable future because most Utahns support his effort to strip National Monument status from Bear's Ears. I think barring a huge catastrophe like a war he'll outperform himself there in 2020 relative to 2016.