Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[pbrower2a]

Here is the 2017 map of Cook PVI.  With a 50-50 split of the popular vote, a PVI of D+6 (Connecticut) means that the Democrat can expect to get 56% of the popular vote from Connecticut and that a PVI of R+9 (Indiana) indicates that one can reasonably expect the Republican to win 59% of the popular vote in Indiana. Districts of Maine and Nebraska are shown as their Congressional districts vote for members of Congress. DC? I'm guessing that the Democrat is going to win about 90% of the vote in just about any election, so that is about D+40.  

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more

DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)
 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.  

100-DIS gives a reasonable ceiling for Trump in 2020 -- at least the most suitable one that I can think of. He may have won Iowa by nearly ten points, but he would be crushed there if an election were to be held there today. The recent poll suggests that the President has disappointed Iowa voters very much.

An assumption of a close race for President depends upon most states being close to their Cook PVI ratings. So how is that going?

Use green for a poll that diverges in favor of Trump's likely opponent, and orange for polls that  that diverge to the favor of Trump. Use light shades for divergence of 4% or less, medium for 5% to 8%, and dark shades for 9% or more.  For example, I show a ceiling of 48% for Trump in Alabama in a state that usually gives the average Republican a 14% edge in a 50-50 election. Trump would be reasonably expected to win Alabama by about 14%, but my measure (100-DIS)  suggests that Trump would fare worse by about 12% for the average Republican in a 50-50 election.  
 
  

Fourteen states with recent polls... slightly fewer than one third of all states, If you can see a 50-50 election for the Presidency in 2020, then you see something that I don't see. I cannot predict that the President's biggest losses of support are in the Midwest or South. I might expect things to be closer to normal in New York and New England except for Maine and new Hampshire, and I have nothing on the High Plains or Texas.  

[pbrower2a]

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/popularity.php?pres=45&sort=time&direct=DESC&Submit=DISPLAY

Recently came across this

Trump's ratings aren't so bad as some media try to portray as "the lowest in history of such ratings". If you look at ratings of Bush 43 during the most of his 2nd term or Nixon's during Watergate there have been more or less worse numbers for previous presidents (for ex. Jimmy Carter had in the midst of 1979 below 30% rating for this short time).

Worst at this stage. This President has done little to build trust beyond his base, and his base may be eroding. Just look at the horrid polling data. Things didn't go so badly for Dubya until the wars in Afghanistan  and Iraq started to go bad, let alone the economic meltdown that caused him to be compared to Hoover.

Carter had the misfortune of being in office when one of America's firmest allies (Iran under Reza Shah Pahlavi) proved brittle, and Iranians who hated hm started to hurt American sensibilities.

Most Presidents do something to try to win support from people who did not vote  for him. Some (JFK) are far more successful than others (Obama) at that. But Obama began with a landslide win outside of the Deep South, Mountain South, Great Plains, and Mormon country and could lose about 60 electoral votes and still have a clear win.

People who voted against him in 2016 are generally firm in their contempt for him. He has since disappointed many others.

As I shall soon show, I project this President losing his bid for re-election by a level at least as bad as the elder Bush lost to Clinton, and perhaps as badly as Hoover didin 1932 or Carter in 1980, if for very different reasons. 

[Yank2133]

http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/popularity.php?pres=45&sort=time&direct=DESC&Submit=DISPLAY

Recently came across this

Trump's ratings aren't so bad as some media try to portray as "the lowest in history of such ratings". If you look at ratings of Bush 43 during the most of his 2nd term or Nixon's during Watergate there have been more or less worse numbers for previous presidents (for ex. Jimmy Carter had in the midst of 1979 below 30% rating for this short time).

They are the worst ever at this point of a presidency.

That is true. He never hit 50% of approval rating, started his term with 45% only. That is really low.

But my intention in the post above was to put this thing in a slightly smaller picture, because when I heard several times that Trump's numbers are the lowest on the record, I was not thinking that this statement on his ratings includes a certain point of a presidency. This evening I continued reading a book about Jimmy Carter, and there was some informations that Carter had in some time under 30's rating, and after that I started to search the Internet to see ratings of other past presidents and that is how I came up with my post above.

Carter fell under the 30s during the oil crisis and the Iran hostage crisis. Trump is already in the 30s without having faced a crisis that wasn't of his own making, and a booming economy to boot.

Exactly.

This is why I say Trump is finished if he makes it to 2020.

This isn't like Bill Clinton, who had poor numbers in his first year due to a bad economy. Trump has awful numbers while overseeing a country that might be in the best shape it has been since the late 90s.

He is going to get blown the **** out in 2020 if he is still in office. People really don't like him and he will likely not face someone as unpopular as Hillary was.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos/Reuters, Dec 21-25, 1435 adults

Approve 37 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

[LimoLiberal]

Ipsos/Reuters, Dec 21-25, 1435 adults

Approve 37 (+2)
Disapprove 59 (nc)

Incredible Tax Reform Bump.

[President Johnson]

LOL, Trump's disapproval rating in Alabama is almost the same than Pennsylvania or Ohio and equal to Georgia. #BattlegroundAlabama

[Gass3268]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

[Kamala]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

Amazing Tax Reform Bump!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, 12/26 (change from 12/23 -- no polling on 12/24-25)

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

[OneJ]

Gallup, 12/26 (change from 12/23 -- no polling on 12/24-25)

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 56 (+1)

I'm loving this tax reform bump.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

MT treasurer must be salivating over this poll.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Dec 24-26, 1500 adults

Approve 38 (nc)
Disapprove 52 (nc)

Strongly approve 22
Strongly disapprove 42

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

LOL, Trump's disapproval rating in Alabama is almost the same than Pennsylvania or Ohio and equal to Georgia. #BattlegroundAlabama

It isn't... he's using the exit poll (which, by the way, was 49% approval vs 47% disapproval) for the Roy Moore vs Doug Jones election which obviously over represents leftwing people because many rightwingers couldn't stand Roy Moore for... very obvious reasons. Trump is actually probably around +10-+12% positive in Alabama.

Also that user cherrypicked the worst polls he could find for Trump in Tennessee and Louisana.

I also doubt Trump is doing so well in Georgia. IIRC that result is from morning consult, which has been notoriously R friendly for a few months.

[Dr. Arch]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

MT treasurer must be salivating over this poll.

Holy mother of...

[ProgressiveCanadian]

How the hell was Trump almost able to win NH?!

[Virginiá]

How the hell was Trump almost able to win NH?!

Because Clinton was almost as unpopular as Trump, and in an election between two very unpopular candidates, things even out and the fundamentals become more predictive. The fundamentals predicted a close race.

This is mostly why I think people acting like Trump is favored in 2020 completely misinterpreted a crucial component of the 2016 election. Most people don't actually like Trump, and nationally and in numerous states he actually did worse than Romney. Unless he draws an equally unpopular candidate in 2020, he'll probably get blown out.

[IceSpear]

50-43 approval in KY.

http://m.wave3.com/wave/db_336805/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=fFRTaxUV

Racist KY Hicks are Trump's freiwal.

[Person Man]

How the hell was Trump almost able to win NH?!

Because Clinton was almost as unpopular as Trump, and in an election between two very unpopular candidates, things even out and the fundamentals become more predictive. The fundamentals predicted a close race.

This is a big part of why I think people acting like Trump is favored in 2020 completely misinterpreted a big part of the 2016 election. Most people don't actually like Trump, and nationally and in numerous states he actually did worse than Romney. Unless he draws an equally unpopular candidate in 2020, he'll probably get blown out.

Basically, the only two reasons why Trump won in 2016 was because 1) Democratic fatigue (people may have just thought it was time to elect a Republican), and 2) Clinton insufficiently contrasted with Trump because of the constant allegations of corruption made against her.

Trump could still win in 2020 if the fundamentals make people who don't really like him give him the benefit of the doubt. That is pretty much how Obama and Bush got reelected. They both got to 51% by convincing swing voters it was too soon to judge them because they were in the middle of implementing their signature policies. With W, it was Iraq and with Obama, it was Obamacare. However, Trump hasn't really done anything yet that would need him to be reelected. The alternative might be for him to win like Clinton did in 1996 by claiming that the status quo is working but that only worked because Clinton lost Congress and the economy was going strong.

[KingSweden]

ARG - New Hampshire

27% Approve
66% Disapprove

Source

ARRRRRRRRGGGGGGGGG

[Rookie Yinzer]

Trump could still win in 2020 if the fundamentals make people who don't really like him give him the benefit of the doubt. That is pretty much how Obama and Bush got reelected. They both got to 51% by convincing swing voters it was too soon to judge them because they were in the middle of implementing their signature policies. With W, it was Iraq and with Obama, it was Obamacare. However, Trump hasn't really done anything yet that would need him to be reelected. The alternative might be for him to win like Clinton did in 1996 by claiming that the status quo is working but that only worked because Clinton lost Congress and the economy was going strong.

Trump lacks self-awareness and political gravitas. He is an incompetent idiot that BS'd his way into the White House because Clinton was unpopular, depressed her own base, and enough independents broke for him because he was "different". Unless the 2020 nominee is Andrew Cuomo, who embodies everything projected onto Hillary Clinton, Trump is not going to win IMO. He is an undisciplined old fart further emboldened by his scant win that was decided by a razor thin margin in three states.

[Virginiá]

Hell, Trump could lose by more than Romney in 2020 and he doesn't even have to lose any of the people who voted for him in 2016. All the Democrat has to do is consolidate everyone who voted for Clinton, and those who voted 3rd party. That's how fragile his reelection prospects are. However I seriously doubt he is on track to maintain his current base of support. His "outsider" credentials are shot, and now he has a history to run on - an unsavory history full of policy changes that directly contradict his populist hero image. Not to mention allegations of corruption and foreign collusion.

At best, I think he could maintain the Obama 2012 trajectory, where Obama won but still lost a bit shy of half his 2008 winning margin, which in Trump's case (as a popular vote loser), you would subtract about 1 - 1.5%, bringing him down to 44.5 - 45%. And this assumes he claws his way back to 45%+ approvals, which is hardly a given considering his favorables in 2016 were constantly in the 35 - 37% range.

I dunno. I just don't see it. If Trump's popularity starts surging to near or >50% sometime before October 2020, or the Democrat is again really unpopular, I'll reconsider. Otherwise I think he's got a very short shelf life.

[Person Man]

Hell, Trump could lose by more than Romney in 2020 and he doesn't even have to lose any of the people who voted for him in 2016. All the Democrat has to do is consolidate everyone who voted for Clinton, and those who voted 3rd party. That's how fragile his reelection prospects are. However I seriously doubt he is on track to maintain his current base of support. His "outsider" credentials are shot, and now he has a history to run on - an unsavory history full of policy changes that directly contradict his populist hero image. Not to mention allegations of corruption and foreign collusion.

At best, I think he could maintain the Obama 2012 trajectory, where Obama won but still lost a bit shy of half his 2008 winning margin, which in Trump's case (as a popular vote loser), you would subtract about 1 - 1.5%, bringing him down to 44.5 - 45%. And this assumes he claws his way back to 45%+ approvals, which is hardly a given considering his favorables in 2016 were constantly in the 35 - 37% range.

I dunno. I just don't see it. If Trump's popularity starts surging to near or >50% sometime before October 2020, or the Democrat is again really unpopular, I'll reconsider. Otherwise I think he's got a very short shelf life.

His best case scenario is where he pulls an Obama and loses Michigan and Pennsylvania, but holds on in Wisconsin by a few thousand votes and maybe Florida by 1% again.

What is probably going to happen is that he either loses by like 5 or 6 points and Democrats take all the above plus Arizona and North Carolina...Or gets BTFO and loses Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio....and has trouble in some elastic red states like Montana

[LimoLiberal]

Gravis Florida Poll

Favorable - 39
Unfavorable - 53

Great Poll For Trump In A State He Only Won By 1 Point.

[ProgressiveCanadian]

Gravis Florida Poll

Favorable - 39
Unfavorable - 53

Great Poll For Trump In A State He Only Won By 1 Point.

Mods please ban.

[Virginiá]

Gravis Florida Poll

Favorable - 39
Unfavorable - 53

Great Poll For Trump In A State He Only Won By 1 Point.

Mods please ban.

It's pretty satisfying watching some Republicans lower the bar so much just to be able to claim some form of "success" after all the setbacks Democrats had under Obama. I look forward to the newest location of the goalposts people like LL plan to introduce after next year's electoral shellacking. It'll probably be along the lines of, "poor Democrat Party, only won 10 gubernatorial races. Couldn't even win 12. Sad!"  or  "haha Democrats underperformed so badly! They won Congress but couldn't even defeat Wicker or Barrasso. Such a failed party!"