Trump approval ratings thread 1.2

[Dr. Arch]

Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll - Arkansas

47.5%  Approve
45.5%  Disapprove

Source

hah, almost underwater in Arkansas of all places.

[Frodo]

Given numbers like these, I can easily understand why Trump is so eager to go to war with North Korea (and maybe Iran too for good measure), and get that rally-'round-the-flag effect in the polls. 

[pbrower2a]

Talk Business & Politics-Hendrix College Poll - Arkansas

47.5%  Approve
45.5%  Disapprove

Source

hah, almost underwater in Arkansas of all places.

I'm calling that "48-46" by rounding the .5 decimals up to a full unit. This poll suggests that Arkansas would be on the fringe of contention, so you can imagine what that says about Missouri and Georgia.

The biggest potentials for drops from typical R support to the support that people have for President  Trump are in those states that the President won big in 2016, or at least such would be my intuition.  If you cut the vote share by 12% to current level of approval you would get about 36% approval. The normal drop is about 6.5% for most incumbent Senators and Governors (who have very different roles in political life but get elected much the same way), which is recoverable through effective campaigning. 

Note that the President has no cultural ties to the South. If Southerners thought Barack Obama.  the ultimate d@mnyankee city-slicker, just think what they think of him after nine months! If this poll holds, then I could project that in a re-election bid (assuming that running for President that President Trump wins Arkansas 54-46 at his optimum if he runs a spirited campaign against a challenger of a normal level of competence of a challenger. Statewide races for President, I assume, are usually much like Senate or gubernatorial campaigns.

Democrats are now largely relegated to the black, Hispanic, Asian, Jewish, and LGBT vote in the Mountain and Deep South, and that is not enough in any states other than Hawaii, California, New Mexico, maybe New York, New Jersey, or Maryland.

This approval map shows  electoral votes to the states on the approval map.

Trump approval, net positive

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

Trump approval, net negative

44-49%
40-45%
39% or lower

But raw disapproval numbers appear instead  of electoral votes here:

Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :

55% or higher
50-54%
44-49%

Ties are in white.

(net positive for Trump)
46-49%  
41-45%
40% or lower

[Pericles]

One of the good things is the some of the greatest falls in Trump's approval is with non-college educated whites.

[pbrower2a]

One of the good things is the some of the greatest falls in Trump's approval is with non-college educated whites.

They are the ones most gulled -- and the ones who could get hurt worst.

[IceSpear]

Given numbers like these, I can easily understand why Trump is so eager to go to war with North Korea (and maybe Iran too for good measure), and get that rally-'round-the-flag effect in the polls. 

The thing is, that effect tends to drop off as time goes on. Electorally, it would be smartest for him to start one war in October 2018 and another war in October 2020.

[Person Man]

It was enough to start one in early 03 for Bush.

[IceSpear]

It was enough to start one in early 03 for Bush.

His victory was hardly assured. It came down to a close margin in a single swing state. Compare that to his 60-70% approvals for the few months immediately after Iraq.

[Person Man]

It was enough to start one in early 03 for Bush.

His victory was hardly assured. It came down to a close margin in a single swing state. Compare that to his 60-70% approvals for the few months immediately after Iraq.

Still, it was enough. Without it, he would've lost. Though if 9/11 never happened, the Dems would have consolidated congress and he could have won by campaigning against them.

[windjammer]

It has been for a long time he's in the 35-40 job approval with Gallup. I wonder if he can go down by more

[Tekken_Guy]

Given numbers like these, I can easily understand why Trump is so eager to go to war with North Korea (and maybe Iran too for good measure), and get that rally-'round-the-flag effect in the polls. 

It's not going to work. Read this article on why

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/15/politics/public-approval-trump-war/index.html

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

His numbers on the NFL protests are brutal. His patriotic platform isn't drawing anyone to him.

[pbrower2a]

It has been for a long time he's in the 35-40 job approval with Gallup. I wonder if he can go down by more

He's still riding the Obama economy and Obama foreign policy.

If anything horrible happens in Korea -- that  is his problem.

[pbrower2a]

Lower approval than previous Presidents in international standoffs

Even before Trump sparked outrage last weekend by failing to initially condemn white nationalists for the violence in Charlottesville, he was operating with a lower job approval rating than almost any other president during a national security standoff since the Cuban missile crisis between the US and then-USSR more than 50 years ago.

In daily Gallup polling, Trump's approval rating has oscillated between 36% and 40% since late June, though on Monday he skidded to just 34%, his lowest mark ever in the survey. (The most recent CNN poll put Trump's approval at a comparable 38%, also his lowest mark in that survey.)
That's a weaker position than almost any other president has faced at other moments of tension. In Gallup polling, John F. Kennedy's approval rating stood at 63% just before the Cuban missile crisis in 1962. George H.W. Bush enjoyed a 60% approval rating before he launched the first Iraq War in 1990, and his son George W. Bush stood at 58% before he started the second war there in 2003. Bill Clinton stood at 53% when he launched the bombing of Bosnia in 1995 and 62% when he ordered the Kosovo bombing in 1999. Richard Nixon enjoyed a solid 56% rating before he invaded Cambodia in April 1970. Lyndon Johnson (at 48%) just before the 1968 Tet Offensive in Vietnam and Ronald Reagan (at 45%) just before the 1983 Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon were in weaker positions than those other presidents, but still stronger than Trump is today.

Only Jimmy Carter at the outset of the Iran hostage situation in November 1979 began an international stand off in a comparably weak position: in Gallup polling just before the hostages were seized, Carter's approval rating reached just 32%. And Trump's current Gallup disapproval rating (61%) is even higher than Carter's (55%) was then.

...and his approvals are dreadful elsewhere:

Concern abroad

Internationally, Trump has run into an even more imposing wall of skepticism. Global polling this year from the Pew Research Project found that preponderant majorities of the public in key US allies describe Trump as not qualified, arrogant, and dangerous, with large majorities saying they do not have confidence in his ability to do the right thing in world affairs.

Those feelings are especially intense in several of the countries on the front line of the crisis. In the Pew polling, just 17% of adults in South Korea said they had confidence in Trump to do the right thing in world affairs and just 18% called him well qualified to be president, while 76% said he was dangerous, and 85% called him arrogant. In Japan only 24% said they had confidence in Trump, while a mere 15% called him qualified; that was far less than the 56% who termed him dangerous. Trump's numbers were comparably poor in Australia. In all three countries, Trump inspired far less confidence than not only Obama, but also George W. Bush, who provoked his own international doubts, in the global Pew surveys.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/15/politics/public-approval-trump-war/index.html

[GeorgiaModerate]

Virginia: Quinnipiac, Oct 25-29, 916 LV (change from last week)

Approve 34 (-1)
Disapprove 62 (+2)

[Virginiá]

Gallup 33/62. Lowest ever.

Damn it I was this close to posting that

I wonder if it'll go lower once today is fully factored in.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Gallup 33/62. Lowest ever.

It would be funny if he got down to the 20s.

[Doimper]

Gallup 33/62. Lowest ever.

Can't stop winning, folks

[Santander]

I approve of Trump more than ever in light of today's charges. We must work with Putin and his glorious Christian Tsardom to defend Christendom. Dig in. Fight back. God is on our side.

[Dr. Arch]

Looks like the 60s are here now, way ahead of schedule, mind you.

[windjammer]

Why is he going down btw?

[President Johnson]

Well he's still at 56% at RCP average. But if Russiagate continues to be in the headlines and Tax Reform fails to pass, he'll hit the 60% in RCP as well. I hope his approval goes into the 20s by the 2018 midterms.

[Dr. Arch]

Well he's still at 56% at RCP average. But if Russiagate continues to be in the headlines and Tax Reform fails to pass, he'll hit the 60% in RCP as well. I hope his approval goes into the 20s by the 2018 midterms.

They haven't added the latest polls yet, other than Gallup. We'll see what happens with the average in a few.

[Holmes]

I approve of Trump more than ever in light of today's charges. We must work with Putin and his glorious Christian Tsardom to defend Christendom. Dig in. Fight back. God is on our side.

Fight the good fight!

[Yank2133]

33/62!

lmao!