WISCONSIN, 10 electoral votes
(I need do nothing with the type size because the standard type here is 10 points)
PPP. Note that most of the focus is on state issues.
Approval: President Donald Trump 40-52
Governor Scott Walker 43-49
Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) 35-51
2018 election for Governor: Walker 43, Democratic opponent 48
Lots of issues.
Have roads and highways gotten better or worse under Walker?
Better 20 Worse 38 Much the same 36
Schools
Better 17 Worse 48 Much the same 17
Incentives to Foxconn (big Walker effort)
Support 34 Oppose 41
Motivation of Foxconn deal
Good for Wisconsin 38 Political advantage 49
Will the Foxconn deal be good for Wisconsin -- do you have concerns that the concessions will hurt schools and the public universities, public health, and transportation?
Yes 55 No 24
Environmental concessions on behalf of Foxconn: Concerned or not
Yes 57 No 24
Pushes legal concerns for Foxconn concessions to the Wisconsin Supreme Court instead of to more local judges
Yes 54 No 26
Expansion of Medicaid (opposing Governor Walker)
Support 59 Oppose 21
Support or oppose a law allowing people with student loans to refinance their loans?
Support 79 Oppose 9
Believe that Scott Walker is excessively supportive of President Trump?
Too supportive 44 Not enough 13 About Right 35
Should Congressional districts be determined by
Legislature and Governor 16
Independent non-partisan commission 63
My conclusion: Wisconsin voters are going to be tired of Governor Walker and his policies. Wisconsin is going to be one of the sharpest battlegrounds in 2018. Democrats will be wise to keep the focus on Governor Walker and his policies, and not on President Trump. Statewide issues, on which Governor Walker and Republican legislators will be vulnerable, will be far more important than national issues in Wisconsin.
Note also: it will be far easier for Wisconsin voters to vote against President Trump if Wisconsin has a Democratic governor who will not do dirty work for the President. Wisconsin will be a laboratory for undoing the damage that a governor similar to President Trump in ideology can do to a state ordinarily split nearly 50-50 in partisan identity.
Paul Ryan will probably be re-elected, assuming that his district is decidedly more R than the US or Wisconsin on the whole.
This approval map shows electoral votes to the states on the approval map.
Trump approval, net positive
55% or higher50-54%44-49% Ties are in white.
Trump approval, net negative
44-49%40-45%39% or lowerBut raw disapproval numbers appear instead of electoral votes here:
Disapproval (net negative for Trump) :
55% or higher 50-54%44-49%Ties are in white.
(net positive for Trump)
46-49% 41-45%40% or lower