VA-Gov CNU/Wason Center Northam +7 (user search)
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  VA-Gov CNU/Wason Center Northam +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: VA-Gov CNU/Wason Center Northam +7  (Read 2252 times)
Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
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Posts: 33,080
United States


« on: October 12, 2017, 01:47:59 PM »

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.

Two things:


1. Obama's 2012 win was NOT razor-thin, and Kaine ran ahead of Obama by a margin less than even Pat Toomey compared to Trump in Pennsylvania.  Either Obama's win was razor-thin or it wasn't if Kaine's is or isn't.

2. 2013 Gov. and 2014 Sen. Races also looked like they were gonna be routs, then it didn't happen.

It's true that lots of factors have changed since, and Bob Sarvis isn't there to suck away Democratic votes, but the game isn't over yet, and Northam isn't entirely capitalizing on Gillespie's blunders either.
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Mr. Smith
MormDem
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,080
United States


« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2017, 07:47:09 PM »

Gillespie needs the polls to be missing the mark by a lot to win this one.

Considering how it turned out for T-Mac and Warner, that very well could happen, especially if Cliff Hyra proves to be as strong as Bob Sarvis.

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.

Two things:


1. Obama's 2012 win was NOT razor-thin, and Kaine ran ahead of Obama by a margin less than even Pat Toomey compared to Trump in Pennsylvania.  Either Obama's win was razor-thin or it wasn't if Kaine's is or isn't.

2. 2013 Gov. and 2014 Sen. Races also looked like they were gonna be routs, then it didn't happen.

It's true that lots of factors have changed since, and Bob Sarvis isn't there to suck away Democratic votes, but the game isn't over yet, and Northam isn't entirely capitalizing on Gillespie's blunders either.

I think it's going to be 50-45% for Northam. Possibly he's slightly under 50%.

I'd put 46% as the floor, 48% as the ceiling for either camp. Northam would be favored to get the ceiling, but certainly not the prohibitive one.

I'd be genuinely surprised if Gillespie actually did worse than The C*&^h.
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