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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Gov CNU/Wason Center Northam +7
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Author Topic: VA-Gov CNU/Wason Center Northam +7  (Read 1553 times)
swf541
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« on: October 09, 2017, 09:24:53 am »


CNU/Wason Center

Northam 49
Gillespie 42


http://m.nbc12.com/story/36550832/ah...points-in-poll

Lt Gov
Fairfax +8 (48-40)
AG
Herring +11 (51-40)
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Arch
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« Reply #1 on: October 09, 2017, 12:25:06 pm »

VA is going the freedom route.
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #2 on: October 09, 2017, 12:43:17 pm »

Great poll!
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2017, 12:53:38 pm »

HoD generic ballot: 49 - 38% (D)

http://wasoncenter.cnu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/Oct-9-Report-Final.pdf
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« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2017, 01:38:54 pm »


Thank God for Mississippi Virginia!


Wow...this is big if true.
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VirginiŠ
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« Reply #5 on: October 09, 2017, 08:33:24 pm »
« Edited: October 09, 2017, 08:34:57 pm by Virginia »

Really starting to think Northam actually could win by upper single digits, just shy of 10 points.

I'm just hoping their poll is as accurate as the ones they put out in 2016. Their last two 2016 polls were accurate, and the last one was almost on the money. If it is, Democrats winning the HoD popular vote by close to or more than 10 points with the huge slate of candidates they have would really put a hurting on Republicans. Those are wave numbers, and it could very well set up Democrats for sweeping both legislative chambers in 2019. Maps drawn by Democrats in 2021 would completely change the VA political environment for the 2020s.
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President Pericles
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« Reply #6 on: October 09, 2017, 08:42:42 pm »

Hope this is true and Northam crushes Gillespie and Democrats gain in the HoD, though in 2013 the polls were inaccurate.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: October 09, 2017, 08:50:43 pm »

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.
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#Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: October 09, 2017, 09:03:24 pm »

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Warner 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin Webb 2006/Obama 2012/McAuliffe 2013/Warner 2014 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.

Agreed
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2017, 01:47:59 pm »

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.

Two things:


1. Obama's 2012 win was NOT razor-thin, and Kaine ran ahead of Obama by a margin less than even Pat Toomey compared to Trump in Pennsylvania.  Either Obama's win was razor-thin or it wasn't if Kaine's is or isn't.

2. 2013 Gov. and 2014 Sen. Races also looked like they were gonna be routs, then it didn't happen.

It's true that lots of factors have changed since, and Bob Sarvis isn't there to suck away Democratic votes, but the game isn't over yet, and Northam isn't entirely capitalizing on Gillespie's blunders either.
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #10 on: October 13, 2017, 03:16:35 am »

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.

Two things:


1. Obama's 2012 win was NOT razor-thin, and Kaine ran ahead of Obama by a margin less than even Pat Toomey compared to Trump in Pennsylvania.  Either Obama's win was razor-thin or it wasn't if Kaine's is or isn't.

2. 2013 Gov. and 2014 Sen. Races also looked like they were gonna be routs, then it didn't happen.

It's true that lots of factors have changed since, and Bob Sarvis isn't there to suck away Democratic votes, but the game isn't over yet, and Northam isn't entirely capitalizing on Gillespie's blunders either.

I think it's going to be 50-45% for Northam. Possibly he's slightly under 50%.
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Xing
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« Reply #11 on: October 14, 2017, 07:30:59 pm »

Gillespie needs the polls to be missing the mark by a lot to win this one.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #12 on: October 14, 2017, 07:47:09 pm »

Gillespie needs the polls to be missing the mark by a lot to win this one.

Considering how it turned out for T-Mac and Warner, that very well could happen, especially if Cliff Hyra proves to be as strong as Bob Sarvis.

This is starting to feel more like an Obama 2008/Kaine 2012/Clinton 2016 style win for Northam than another razor thin 2013 style race.  Would seem to confirm Gillespie is flailing a bit.

Two things:


1. Obama's 2012 win was NOT razor-thin, and Kaine ran ahead of Obama by a margin less than even Pat Toomey compared to Trump in Pennsylvania.  Either Obama's win was razor-thin or it wasn't if Kaine's is or isn't.

2. 2013 Gov. and 2014 Sen. Races also looked like they were gonna be routs, then it didn't happen.

It's true that lots of factors have changed since, and Bob Sarvis isn't there to suck away Democratic votes, but the game isn't over yet, and Northam isn't entirely capitalizing on Gillespie's blunders either.

I think it's going to be 50-45% for Northam. Possibly he's slightly under 50%.

I'd put 46% as the floor, 48% as the ceiling for either camp. Northam would be favored to get the ceiling, but certainly not the prohibitive one.

I'd be genuinely surprised if Gillespie actually did worse than The C*&^h.
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