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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2019 & Odd Year Gubernatorial Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  VA-Washington Post: Northam +13
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Author Topic: VA-Washington Post: Northam +13  (Read 2206 times)
swf541
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« on: October 04, 2017, 11:16:01 pm »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-northam-leads-republican-gillespie-in-race-for-virginia-governor/2017/10/04/a62425e6-a78e-11e7-b3aa-c0e2e1d41e38_story.html?utm_term=.e533982afba1

Northam (D): 53
Gillespie (R): 40
Hyra (L): 4

Trump:

Approve: 33
Disapprove: 59
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2017, 11:17:00 pm »

Their final poll in 2016 was Clinton +6 in Virginia.
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: October 04, 2017, 11:19:15 pm »

Their final poll in 2016 was Clinton +6 in Virginia.

Yep, 10 point dem enthusiasm advantage as well, also leading in the AG race
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #3 on: October 04, 2017, 11:24:18 pm »

Well, at least they're not herding.

Also included in this poll:

Attorney General
Mark Herring (D) - 52%
John Adams (R) - 41%
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2017, 11:35:27 pm »

What a nice poll!
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #5 on: October 04, 2017, 11:36:07 pm »

Interesting that we have an east-west split roughly along the I-95 corridor.  
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Virginia Yellow Dog
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« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2017, 11:39:46 pm »

Also looks like Northam has successfully threaded his needle on the contentious, hot-button issues of immigration, abortion, and the Confederacy:

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Keep cool-idge
Benjamin Harrison he is w
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« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2017, 11:49:28 pm »

Junk poll in 2013 they had terry up 11-13 points in there final poll!
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2017, 12:04:16 am »

It likely won't be this lopsided, but I still think Northam wins by about 5.
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Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2017, 12:05:15 am »

Well, at least they're not herding.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2017, 12:11:46 am »

Interesting that we have an east-west split roughly along the I-95 corridor.  

I've been pointing out for weeks how Northam has potential to overperform typical Dems in Eastern Virginia (Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Eastern Shore) due to it being his geographic base. Wonder if this poll confirms that?

I think he'll pick up some of those Tidewater counties Obama was able to win (Caroline, Essex, Westmoreland), although it'll be less reliant on black turnout in this case. The map will also look very nice if Northam pulls in both Eastern Shore counties. He's certainly the only candidate who can pull that off.
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L.D. Smith
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« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2017, 12:54:16 am »

To be fair, (though I remain skeptical of anything more than a 2 point margin) the primary for Northam was supposed to be close too against Perriello....but pretty much everything east of I-95 went bigly for Northam.

Could happen again.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2017, 07:11:34 am »

Just saw a tweet from the person in charge of the poll. They said that they really pushed learners into making a decision and stressed that 25% could change their minds.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2017, 12:28:37 pm »

Ya I mean basically this confirms that about 40% or a little under support Gillespie, low-40s support Northam, and the remaining undecided voters are Democratic-leaning.

Definitely a great sign for Northam that he is converting those leaning voters when they're pushed to give a preference, however. I wish more polls pushed people to make a decision.

I doubt it'll be +13 but I suspect the massive fiancial edge Northam gained in August resulted in this via ad buys in September. Will be interesting to see September fundraising totals - if Nottham takes it 2 - 1 again Gillespie may well just get buried well before Election Day.

Interesting that even in this poll 57 percent support keeping Confederate monuments. I wonder if Gillespie will tack right on this issue in the hope of appealing to Stewart voters who clearly don't care about his candidacy.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2017, 01:37:53 pm »

Anything on the LG race? I expect Fairfax to win, but Iím still wary of the Bradley Effect.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2017, 02:35:13 pm »

Suspect Northam probably finishes with mid-to-high single digits
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2017, 07:56:14 pm »

Junk poll in 2013 they had terry up 11-13 points in there final poll!

he won, didn't he?
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2017, 09:30:09 pm »

Junk poll in 2013 they had terry up 11-13 points in there final poll!

he won, didn't he?

They also pretend that the 2016 polling for VA does not exist because they it does not support their narrative.

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